Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

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tomfoolery
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Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by tomfoolery » Wed Mar 10, 2021 9:58 pm

As a long-time registered Democrat, I’ve been disheartened by the scourge of alt right extremism we’ve had on this otherwise mostly common sense centrist forum. Although no surprise since the PP was invented by a lunatic who didn’t want car companies to install airbags or seatbelts because he wanted America to be more like Somalia because freedom!

Well, the more I think about it, I wonder if the whole PP idea isn’t just for the loonies who won’t wear masks and think covid isn’t real. Because it has 25% in gold which has been doing really poorly the last 6 months. Like a huge drag on the PP.

The point of gold is to protect against inflation but TIPS do that and if you hold to maturity you can’t lose money because they guarantee a real return unlike gold which is just a shiny rock.

The Fed Chairperson Jerome Powell has said inflation is 1.4% and maybe will reach 1.7% at the worst in coming years. So if we have low inflation and our government economic experts are telling us this, then why hold gold? Why not TIPS?

I put full faith in our government environmental scientists to tell us about global warming, full faith in our government health scientists to tell us about Covid, so why wouldn’t I also put the same faith in our “economic scientists” to tell me about inflation?

I drive a Prius because the experts tell me it’s good for the environment. I wear two masks to the grocery store and cancelled my gym membership because it’s good for public health. Why would I ignore the economic experts and hold 25% of my money in gold when they offer TIPS with a guaranteed inflation adjusted rate and also are telling us inflation is only at 1.4%?

If someone didn’t wear a mask and got covid, it’s because they ignored the health experts. If someone is holding 25% of their portfolio in gold and lost 15% over the last 6 months in gold, it’s because they’re ignoring the economic experts.

I’m no expert and I have enough to think about these days. So I’m listening to the experts and selling my gold to buy TIPS.
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by murphy_p_t » Thu Mar 11, 2021 7:33 am

"I’m no expert"

I can agree with that.
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by vnatale » Thu Mar 11, 2021 8:22 am

murphy_p_t wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 7:33 am

"I’m no expert"

I can agree with that.


Note the definition and the example of an "expert"!

a person who has a comprehensive and authoritative knowledge of or skill in a particular area.
"a financial expert" ·
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by Kevin K. » Thu Mar 11, 2021 9:40 am

vnatale wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 8:22 am
murphy_p_t wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 7:33 am
"I’m no expert"

I can agree with that.
Note the definition and the example of an "expert"!

a person who has a comprehensive and authoritative knowledge of or skill in a particular area.
"a financial expert" ·
Personally when it comes to finance especially I've always preferred my step-dad's definition of an expert: "ex" is someone who isn't what they used to be, and a "spurt" is a drip under pressure. ;)

Jokes aside (and while I share your politics for the most part) I think that Browne's key insights and the robustness of the PP speak for themselves. Heck even fellow bleeding-heart liberal William Bernstein is a Harry Browne admirer!

As for TIPS vs. Gold, well you're comparing an asset with 20 years of history to one with thousands of years of use as a store of value. Heck TIPS aren't even a good alternative to regular Treasuries of any duration since they aren't liquid enough in a financial crisis to save your portfolio - while LTT's and even ITT's are are. Comparing gold and TIPS for the two decades where it's possible also ain't pretty:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by Don » Thu Mar 11, 2021 10:30 am

tomfoolery wrote:
Wed Mar 10, 2021 9:58 pm
As a long-time registered Democrat, I’ve been disheartened by the scourge of alt right extremism we’ve had on this otherwise mostly common sense centrist forum. Although no surprise since the PP was invented by a lunatic who didn’t want car companies to install airbags or seatbelts because he wanted America to be more like Somalia because freedom!

Well, the more I think about it, I wonder if the whole PP idea isn’t just for the loonies who won’t wear masks and think covid isn’t real. Because it has 25% in gold which has been doing really poorly the last 6 months. Like a huge drag on the PP.

The point of gold is to protect against inflation but TIPS do that and if you hold to maturity you can’t lose money because they guarantee a real return unlike gold which is just a shiny rock.

The Fed Chairperson Jerome Powell has said inflation is 1.4% and maybe will reach 1.7% at the worst in coming years. So if we have low inflation and our government economic experts are telling us this, then why hold gold? Why not TIPS?

I put full faith in our government environmental scientists to tell us about global warming, full faith in our government health scientists to tell us about Covid, so why wouldn’t I also put the same faith in our “economic scientists” to tell me about inflation?

I drive a Prius because the experts tell me it’s good for the environment. I wear two masks to the grocery store and cancelled my gym membership because it’s good for public health. Why would I ignore the economic experts and hold 25% of my money in gold when they offer TIPS with a guaranteed inflation adjusted rate and also are telling us inflation is only at 1.4%?

If someone didn’t wear a mask and got covid, it’s because they ignored the health experts. If someone is holding 25% of their portfolio in gold and lost 15% over the last 6 months in gold, it’s because they’re ignoring the economic experts.

I’m no expert and I have enough to think about these days. So I’m listening to the experts and selling my gold to buy TIPS.
This is satire, I hope.
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by jhogue » Thu Mar 11, 2021 10:56 am

I don't think someone who holds 50% of their portfolio in US Treasury securities qualifies as an alt-right extremist.
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A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by whatchamacallit » Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:35 am

Thanks tomfoolery. I do appreciate a democrats advice on this.

That way I at least know the correct and smartest thing to do.
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by tomfoolery » Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:39 am

whatchamacallit wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:35 am
Thanks tomfoolery. I do appreciate a democrats advice on this.

That way I at least know the correct and smartest thing to do.
It’s not a democrat or republic issue, it’s not a left or a right issue. It’s common sense you listen to experts.

I don’t go to the car mechanic and disagree on what type of quantum inverter induction coil she wants to install in my radiator.
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by vnatale » Thu Mar 11, 2021 10:16 pm

tomfoolery wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:39 am

whatchamacallit wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:35 am

Thanks tomfoolery. I do appreciate a democrats advice on this.

That way I at least know the correct and smartest thing to do.


It’s not a democrat or republic issue, it’s not a left or a right issue. It’s common sense you listen to experts.

I don’t go to the car mechanic and disagree on what type of quantum inverter induction coil she wants to install in my radiator.


Is this the current recommended replacement for the old standby -- "the flux capacitor"?
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Mar 12, 2021 12:59 am

The PP is meant for people who have an entirely neutral outlook on the future of the world, economically and otherwise. As such, in order to walk this middle path it must necessarily contain elements of all areas of the spectrum of political economy.

Yes, gold may appeal to extremely right leaning individuals. That doesn't mean the portfolio is meant to appeal to extreme alt right folks. If it did I'm pretty sure we could say that that factor is balanced out entirely by the socialist element of the government bonds lol.
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by Lonestar » Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:13 am

tomfoolery wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:39 am
whatchamacallit wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:35 am
Thanks tomfoolery. I do appreciate a democrats advice on this.

That way I at least know the correct and smartest thing to do.
It’s not a democrat or republic issue, it’s not a left or a right issue. It’s common sense you listen to experts.

I don’t go to the car mechanic and disagree on what type of quantum inverter induction coil she wants to install in my radiator.

You are taking this way too lightly, and should be informed enough to be able to disagree with her! Is she aware of certain QIIC's causing a degradation of the ionosphere? Are the coils she is using manufactured by forced child labor in a third world country? Do you know for a fact she is using OSHA approved methods for installing QIIC's?

Have you even gone to the trouble to check out what children's books she is currently reading? You just need to get more involved and not be so condescending!
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by murphy_p_t » Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:27 am

Is the parody account (tomfoolery) attempting to convince PP diehards to release the gold coins in their hands so he can scoop them up at bargain basement pricing?
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by vnatale » Fri Mar 12, 2021 6:03 pm

murphy_p_t wrote:
Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:27 am

Is the parody account (tomfoolery) attempting to convince PP diehards to release the gold coins in their hands so he can scoop them up at bargain basement pricing?


One never knows what truly lurks in the heart of tomfoolery!
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by tomfoolery » Fri Mar 12, 2021 6:09 pm

murphy_p_t wrote:
Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:27 am
Is the parody account (tomfoolery) attempting to convince PP diehards to release the gold coins in their hands so he can scoop them up at bargain basement pricing?
How is my statement parody? A parody of what, exactly?

If you believe the government experts in health and ecology, then you support global warming countermeasures and you support mass vaccinations, common-sense business closures and mask wearing.

You must also believe government economics experts who say inflation isn’t a threat. How can one pick and choose which government experts to believe? You either believe all of them, and are a reasonable thinker, or you believe none of them and you’re a kook, for lack of a better word.

How can someone blindly follow health experts but ignore economics experts? That doesn’t even make sense and makes my head hurt to imagine there’s someone who wears masks everywhere based on government health metrics but disbelieves government inflation numbers.

That hypothetical person would be the parody.
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by glennds » Fri Mar 12, 2021 7:40 pm

tomfoolery wrote:
Fri Mar 12, 2021 6:09 pm


You must also believe government economics experts who say inflation isn’t a threat.
Specifically which government experts are you referring to who say inflation isn't a threat?

It couldn't be the Fed Chairman. On March 5th, he signaled an expectation of increased inflation, and believe me, the markets took notice.
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by tomfoolery » Fri Mar 12, 2021 9:10 pm

glennds wrote:
Fri Mar 12, 2021 7:40 pm
tomfoolery wrote:
Fri Mar 12, 2021 6:09 pm


You must also believe government economics experts who say inflation isn’t a threat.
Specifically which government experts are you referring to who say inflation isn't a threat?

It couldn't be the Fed Chairman. On March 5th, he signaled an expectation of increased inflation, and believe me, the markets took notice.
Yes, I’m referring to the Fed Chairperson who said inflation is currently at 1.4% and could rise to 1.7%

Sub-2% inflation is nothing to worry about. In fact, according to legitimate economists, it’s good. It’s deflation that’s the real killer of economies.
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by glennds » Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:42 pm

tomfoolery wrote:
Fri Mar 12, 2021 9:10 pm
glennds wrote:
Fri Mar 12, 2021 7:40 pm
tomfoolery wrote:
Fri Mar 12, 2021 6:09 pm


You must also believe government economics experts who say inflation isn’t a threat.
Specifically which government experts are you referring to who say inflation isn't a threat?

It couldn't be the Fed Chairman. On March 5th, he signaled an expectation of increased inflation, and believe me, the markets took notice.
Yes, I’m referring to the Fed Chairperson who said inflation is currently at 1.4% and could rise to 1.7%

Sub-2% inflation is nothing to worry about. In fact, according to legitimate economists, it’s good. It’s deflation that’s the real killer of economies.
Ah, I see. I must have missed the part where he defined the rise to 1.7%.
However, I'm not certain whether you're speaking in character as the long time registered democrat, or your other persona.
But then I guess the genius in your schtick is that it's like everything in present day American politics; everything can mean anything the listener wants to hear.
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by ppnewbie » Thu Mar 25, 2021 2:30 am

I don’t view gold as an effective short term inflation hedge. I view it as a short term hyper inflation hedge or a deflationary shock hedge (market crash). I also think it tracks the true value of the dollar over longer periods of time.

Craig Rowland discusses some of your points in this podcast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uWJyyBIMPg

I kind of hold the opposite view of “experts”. I take everything they say with skepticism. They actually said there was no need to wear a mask at the start of COVID.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=feavOtijQ8s

Another note on inflation. My experience is that it is closer to the Chapwood Index than the CPI. TIPS track the CPI.
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by ppnewbie » Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:24 am

You may be interested in the book by Nicholas Nassim Taleb called “Skin In The Game”. It’s about the expert class and how to decide who to trust.
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by jalanlong » Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:27 pm

That is an interesting topic...what do people's savings or investment vehicles say about their political bent? For example, my very left leaning in-laws in California just keep their money in a bank. None of them participate in Wall Street in any way, shape or form. My grandparents (also Democrats) also wanted nothing to do with stocks. All Savings accounts and CDs for them. The Libertarians I know generally use the PP if they are older, Bitcoin if they are younger and Gold if they are really pessimistic anti-government types.

If you were 100% stocks, what would that say about your political persuasion?
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by whatchamacallit » Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:32 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:27 pm
That is an interesting topic...what do people's savings or investment vehicles say about their political bent? For example, my very left leaning in-laws in California just keep their money in a bank. None of them participate in Wall Street in any way, shape or form. My grandparents (also Democrats) also wanted nothing to do with stocks. All Savings accounts and CDs for them. The Libertarians I know generally use the PP if they are older, Bitcoin if they are younger and Gold if they are really pessimistic anti-government types.

If you were 100% stocks, what would that say about your political persuasion?
Socially conservative but fiscally liberal.
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by jalanlong » Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:13 pm

whatchamacallit wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:32 pm
jalanlong wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:27 pm
That is an interesting topic...what do people's savings or investment vehicles say about their political bent? For example, my very left leaning in-laws in California just keep their money in a bank. None of them participate in Wall Street in any way, shape or form. My grandparents (also Democrats) also wanted nothing to do with stocks. All Savings accounts and CDs for them. The Libertarians I know generally use the PP if they are older, Bitcoin if they are younger and Gold if they are really pessimistic anti-government types.

If you were 100% stocks, what would that say about your political persuasion?
Socially conservative but fiscally liberal.
Exactly the opposite as me!!
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by tomfoolery » Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:08 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:27 pm
That is an interesting topic...what do people's savings or investment vehicles say about their political bent? For example, my very left leaning in-laws in California just keep their money in a bank. None of them participate in Wall Street in any way, shape or form. My grandparents (also Democrats) also wanted nothing to do with stocks. All Savings accounts and CDs for them. The Libertarians I know generally use the PP if they are older, Bitcoin if they are younger and Gold if they are really pessimistic anti-government types.

If you were 100% stocks, what would that say about your political persuasion?
100% stocks could say that you're a libertarian but have a finite lifespan and believe the government can keep the market irrational longer than you can be alive.
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Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

Post by jalanlong » Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:41 pm

tomfoolery wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:08 pm
jalanlong wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:27 pm
That is an interesting topic...what do people's savings or investment vehicles say about their political bent? For example, my very left leaning in-laws in California just keep their money in a bank. None of them participate in Wall Street in any way, shape or form. My grandparents (also Democrats) also wanted nothing to do with stocks. All Savings accounts and CDs for them. The Libertarians I know generally use the PP if they are older, Bitcoin if they are younger and Gold if they are really pessimistic anti-government types.

If you were 100% stocks, what would that say about your political persuasion?
100% stocks could say that you're a libertarian but have a finite lifespan and believe the government can keep the market irrational longer than you can be alive.
Or that you have an infinite lifespan because you are leaving most of it to your kids and future generations. If I were to go 100% stocks I would try to skew towards dividend payers like JNJ or UNP. Then let the dividends supplement my social security. I wouldn’t touch the principal of the stocks and let them remain for my kids. In that scenario I am ambivalent about daily or even yearly trends.
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