Mark Leavy wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:41 pm
So what are the rules?
If I put a billion into re-creating the infrastructure needed for open discussion, is that enough?
Or do I also need to create a banking system - because (reasons).
What about employment for anyone that uses my new infrastructure? Are all of those folks going to be out of work?
Does my business only need to hire folks that don't need to fly? If you use my service, will you not be able to fly?
It's tough to put together a business plan right now.
Not only that. But economically, you can’t predict anything. What will interests rates be next year? What will minimum wage be? Will you even be allowed or conduct business or is covid shutdowns still a thing.
Will the corporate tax rate be reverted?
If I’m an investor, I want to see forecasting spreadsheets to estimate my return on capital. But since many of the above variables are unknown, the potential delta of my return on capital might range from minus 50% to plus 100% since each of the unknown factors has its own unknown range.
E.g. tax rates may stay the same or may go up 15%. Covid shut downs may end in a week or in a year or in two years. So if you take the worst case scenario for each of the unknowns, compared to best case scenario, the difference is so enormous, forecasting is impossible. And thus I’m not investing and neither is anyone else.
If Orange man was still president, the tax rate variable would be removed, and thus greater investment would have been likely.
On a side note, to show my fairness, if the economy sucks under Biden for the first year, at least a huge part of that is uncertainty resulting in reduced capital investments. Although to be really fair, he’s the one causing the uncertainty due to proposals he’s stated he’s implement.