Biden’s Courageous New Vaccine Strategy

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barrett
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Re: Biden’s Courageous New Vaccine Strategy

Post by barrett » Mon Jan 25, 2021 7:54 am

From that article:

"The New York Times knew about the overly sensitive COVID PCR test last summer, reporting that 90 percent of patients testing positive “carried barely any virus” based on cycle thresholds. Was that news at the time or dutifully ignored?"

(This is me writing now) If 90% of the positive tests are not really "cases", one possible interpretation is that COVID is actually ten times more lethal than, say, the Johns Hopkins date would seem to indicate. As of yesterday those data show 24,521,383 cases and 414,229 deaths for a mortality rate of 1.7%. Perhaps the real rate is closer to 17%?

I am well aware of the deaths with/from COVID distinction, but one can't remove 90% of the cases from the equation without also revising the mortality rate significantly upward.
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Re: Biden’s Courageous New Vaccine Strategy

Post by stuper1 » Mon Jan 25, 2021 8:47 am

barrett wrote:
Mon Jan 25, 2021 7:54 am
From that article:

"The New York Times knew about the overly sensitive COVID PCR test last summer, reporting that 90 percent of patients testing positive “carried barely any virus” based on cycle thresholds. Was that news at the time or dutifully ignored?"

(This is me writing now) If 90% of the positive tests are not really "cases", one possible interpretation is that COVID is actually ten times more lethal than, say, the Johns Hopkins date would seem to indicate. As of yesterday those data show 24,521,383 cases and 414,229 deaths for a mortality rate of 1.7%. Perhaps the real rate is closer to 17%?

I am well aware of the deaths with/from COVID distinction, but one can't remove 90% of the cases from the equation without also revising the mortality rate significantly upward.
Actually the "with/from" distinction might be very critical here. I've heard reports that less than 10% of reported deaths are really FROM Covid. If that's true, then maybe we're overcounting both cases and deaths by a factor of 10.
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I Shrugged
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Re: Biden’s Courageous New Vaccine Strategy

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Jan 25, 2021 9:14 am

Wikipedia describes American Thinker as "a not so thoughtful far-right online publication."

So I don’t have to think about anything they have published.
Simonjester wrote: Sophie called this ages ago...
but she doesn't have a Wikipedia page that tells me if i can believe her or not..
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Tortoise
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Re: Biden’s Courageous New Vaccine Strategy

Post by Tortoise » Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:18 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Mon Jan 25, 2021 8:47 am
Actually the "with/from" distinction might be very critical here. I've heard reports that less than 10% of reported deaths are really FROM Covid. If that's true, then maybe we're overcounting both cases and deaths by a factor of 10.
This.

If "cases" are overcounted due to PCR test cycle thresholds being set too high, then that applies to deaths as well since the same PCR tests are being used to test everyone -- healthy, hospitalized, and dying/dead people.
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I Shrugged
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Re: Biden’s Courageous New Vaccine Strategy

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:57 pm

Isn't it also Biden's position that the vaccine priorities should be for ahem, favored people first? Even as a Biden supporter, I don't think that's right. I thought we were going to finally listen to the science.
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i am pretty sure 98 percent of Biden supporting scientists agree that all white people are racist.... its just good science.. and it is the consensus.. don't be questioning the consensus...
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Re: Biden’s Courageous New Vaccine Strategy

Post by Tortoise » Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:33 pm

I hereby coin the new word consciencsus -- the consensus of The Science.
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sophie
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Re: Biden’s Courageous New Vaccine Strategy

Post by sophie » Mon Jan 25, 2021 5:04 pm

I think these conclusion is just a wee bit off. If you have fragments of a virus present, then you got exposed at some point (maybe months previously), so the test is correctly telling you that. Not an "overcount".

The issue is that tests are being misused. A person who is not remotely infectious can test positive and be forced into quarantine. So it's about how the test is used, not whether it's accurate or not.

Personally I think all testing of asymptomatic people should stop. Now. One of the basic tenets of medicine, after "first do no harm", is that you only conduct a test when it has the potential to change clinical management of an existing clinical problem. Any test can cause harm, and for an asymptomatic person there is zero benefit. That i right there certainly qualifies as a violation of the Hippocratic Oath on the part of the medical organization administering the test. I'm awe-struck that no one in the medical community has raised this issue.
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Tortoise
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Re: Biden’s Courageous New Vaccine Strategy

Post by Tortoise » Mon Jan 25, 2021 5:33 pm

sophie wrote:
Mon Jan 25, 2021 5:04 pm
Any test can cause harm, and for an asymptomatic person there is zero benefit. That i right there certainly qualifies as a violation of the Hippocratic Oath on the part of the medical organization administering the test. I'm awe-struck that no one in the medical community has raised this issue.
It seems like the initial justification for testing asymptomatic people was that if a person got a positive result, they could take extra precautions to avoid infecting other people.

But if most people are already masking up, distancing, hand-washing frequently, and staying home as much as possible, what "extra" precautions really remain? Plus, if it takes days for the test result to come back, the usefulness of receiving a positive result is limited anyways.
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Re: Biden’s Courageous New Vaccine Strategy

Post by stuper1 » Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:17 pm

"wonton disregard" ?

Was that a Freudian slip related to the Wu Flu?

Btw, tomfoolery, I want to compliment you on your newfound long-time registered Democrat persona. Satire is very effective at pointing out inanity.
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Re: Biden’s Courageous New Vaccine Strategy

Post by stuper1 » Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:27 pm

I was a Democrat for a while, although never registered. And Lincoln was a huge hero of mine for a long time also. Now I see him for the fool that he was, leading America away from republicanism and towards federalism, which was a huge mistake. If we still had republicanism, we woudn't need secession. People could choose which state to live in based on what kinds of laws they want. If you want to live in loony leftist land, fine, pick a blue state. If you want to live in sane conservative land, likewise make your choice.
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