Xan wrote: ↑Sun May 03, 2020 1:58 pm
(Ad, I took the liberty of flipping the colors... Let me know if the other way was really what you intended.)
Looks pretty scary to me. Why is Biden doing so well in Arizona? I think that's the biggest surprise here.
I have no strong preference. Blue is traditionally the color of the political right and red the color of the left. But it's not a big deal.
You DO have your color understanding reversed.
Vinny
I think it was the 2000 election which established "red=Republican" and "blue=Democrat". Ad's appeal to tradition goes back much, much farther, I'm almost certain. I shouldn't have swapped his colors.
No. You should have. What you did represents today. To leave it the way it was would have been confusing.
Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
vnatale wrote: ↑Sun May 03, 2020 3:41 pm
For certain! In my lifetime I cannot remember a worst Democratic candidate than Biden.
Vinny
100% agreed. The way Biden reportedly lied about his first wife’s car crash cause is appalling; said the trucker who she pulled out in front of was drunk; proven he was not. And the way he used his wife’s and his daughter’s death to his political advantage. And the way he touts his PA upbringing when in PA (he left there as a very young child), and his Delaware ties when talking to a Delaware audience. And his raking in money from charging his security guards hefty rent at his estate. Etc. Hard to understand how he has any street cred. The Democrats must be in a terrible bind to pick him over someone like Jim Webb, or several million others with better ethics.
Turns my stomach to even think about the praise the lemmings gush about Joe the letch and gaffer.
All what you say above is true. Plus you left some out!
I guess you agree with me that there are 100,000 people in this country better qualified than him?
Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Xan wrote: ↑Sun May 03, 2020 1:58 pm
(Ad, I took the liberty of flipping the colors... Let me know if the other way was really what you intended.)
Looks pretty scary to me. Why is Biden doing so well in Arizona? I think that's the biggest surprise here.
I have no strong preference. Blue is traditionally the color of the political right and red the color of the left. But it's not a big deal.
You DO have your color understanding reversed.
Vinny
I think it was the 2000 election which established "red=Republican" and "blue=Democrat". Ad's appeal to tradition goes back much, much farther, I'm almost certain. I shouldn't have swapped his colors.
No. You should have. What you did represents today. To leave it the way it was would have been confusing.
Vinny
Every country in the world... except the US grasps that Red is the color of the left. There is a reason commies are still often called "reds." Note their flags and posters. Look at any May day parade and take note of the sea of red flags. And blue likewise is understood as the color of the right.
Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Sun May 03, 2020 1:37 pm
Recent polls in Trump v Biden...
I don't buy any of those numbers. Some of the states that have Biden+ are solid Red States. Remember how the polls in Oct 2016 showed Hillary a huge favorite?
Keep in mind also that this is pre-debate. Biden is going to get eaten alive by Trump and made to look like an even bigger fool than he actually is.
The polls in 2016 showed Clinton with very narrow leads in most of the swing states that she lost. But those were all within the margin of error. Most of these are not. There is a danger in buying into the propaganda of your own side. If these numbers don't shift dramatically over the next six months, a lot of people who have been clicking their heels over and over again while chanting "fake news fake news fake news" are going to wake up to a very rude shock on November 4th.
Xan wrote: ↑Sun May 03, 2020 1:58 pm
(Ad, I took the liberty of flipping the colors... Let me know if the other way was really what you intended.)
Looks pretty scary to me. Why is Biden doing so well in Arizona? I think that's the biggest surprise here.
I have no strong preference. Blue is traditionally the color of the political right and red the color of the left. But it's not a big deal.
You DO have your color understanding reversed.
Vinny
I think it was the 2000 election which established "red=Republican" and "blue=Democrat". Ad's appeal to tradition goes back much, much farther, I'm almost certain. I shouldn't have swapped his colors.
No. You should have. What you did represents today. To leave it the way it was would have been confusing.
Vinny
Every country in the world... except the US grasps that Red is the color of the left. There is a reason commies are still often called "reds." Note their flags and posters. Look at any May day parade and take note of the sea of red flags. And blue likewise is understood as the color of the right.
I like Amash. He is a a conservative who is neither a nut nor morally bankrupt. Unfortunately I live in a swing state where it could be tight on election day. But if the polls hold and it looks like Biden in a blowout I will vote for Justin. Every vote for Amash is a middle finger directed to the cult of Trump. I hate to say it but the GOP badly needs a trip to the electoral woodshed if they are ever going to recover from their bout of the glass stomach syndrome.
What was most unprecedented was the historic level of voter engagement in the first month of this election cycle. Interest usually falls back after an election and builds back over many months, not even at peak right before the election the following year. However, the percentage who said they were following the election at the highest possible level was already higher than in the last months before the 2018 midterm election that produced the highest turnout ever. The remarkable level of engagement recorded in January 2019 for registered voters already exceeded what I found in my surveys of likely voters in the 2016 presidential election.
The voters crashed my pollsters’ equation for determining who is a “likely voter” in a presidential election. It showed that virtually every registered voter was a likely voter. Did programming screw up? I asked. No. The year 2020 is sure to produce a second election with historic levels of voter turnout.
[]
The battle for 2020 will carry forward with an even more engaged, more realigned and politicized country that will finally settle the fate of the Republican Party and liberate the New America to govern and set the country’s direction. The GOP will only compete seriously nationally after a period of reckoning.
So, it will not take late into the night before people realize just how big and shattering the election of 2020 will be. It will be clear early on that Ron Brownstein’s blue wall that crumbled in 2016 will look as impenetrable and “beautiful” as the one President Trump tried and failed to build on the border with Mexico. The states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota will not be close. Nor will Maine, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Iowa will be back in the Democratic column. And when John King on CNN pulls up the rural counties on his map of western Pennsylvania as well as the map of Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, it will be clear the Trump frenzy will have dimmed. The Democrats’ message on issues of corruption and draining the swamp and an economy rigged against the middle class will have gotten heard.
The dynamic metropolitan areas, affluent suburbs, and women will so decisively repudiate Trump’s GOP that Colorado will look like a deep blue state and North Carolina and Arizona will tip late to the Democrats.
The country will not know early whether the Democrats pick up Georgia, Florida, and Texas because Republican governors and secretaries of state, armed with new playbooks from the Koch brothers, will work passionately and creatively and without shame to disenfranchise as many black, Hispanic, and minority voters as humanly possible. In 2018, they purged about 700,000 registered voters in Florida, those who had not voted in the prior presidential election. In Georgia, the NAACP estimated the shortening of the early voting window and the closing of polling stations may have cost Stacey Abrams upwards of hundreds of thousands of votes. Both states were stolen from the Democrats, who had lost them by about fifty thousand votes.
The stakes are even higher in 2020, and the U.S. Supreme Court will give GOP state election officials wide latitude to suppress the vote and steal the election.2
A divided GOP will make the election even more shattering. There will be no shortage of Republicans who challenge President Trump and his Tea Party politics in the primaries, even though the Republican National Committee will do everything possible to rig the game. Donald Trump has no shame. The anti-Trump candidates will be humiliated in the primaries against the pro-Trump forces, which are dominant, loyal, and vengeful. And you will know something unique is happening when you see the more affluent, college graduates, and independents showing up to vote in the Democratic primaries, where they are welcomed.
Republicans could very well lose Florida if John Kasich leads a third-party ticket. He would play the role of Ross Perot in 1992, whose voters were mostly disaffected Republicans, or Ralph Nader in 2000, supported mostly by disaffected Democrats. Nader won 76,000 votes in Florida.
The former Republican governor has called out the incivility, the lack of morality, the tolerance of racism and sexism, the lack of concern for the poor, and most of all, the Tea Party ethos that rejects the idea that the two political parties can work together to advance the common good. In my polls in 2018 and 2019, 10 percent of Republicans supported Kasich on a third-party ticket.3 One third of moderate Republicans broke away to support him, and Kasich could well make inroads with observant Catholics and secular conservatives, who hate the tone of this Tea Party–dominated party.4
By contrast, the Democrats will be united and consolidated, substantially increasing the chances of even bigger down-ballot gains. Commentators forget how divisive the 2016 Democratic primaries between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders were, when 20 percent of his voters failed to vote for Clinton in the general. President Trump has unified Democrats for now. And while the prospective nominees vary in their boldness, the Democratic base is unified in its support for bold changes, as you will see later in this chapter.
In my polls in 2019, the Democratic presidential candidate won the support of 95 percent of self-identified Democrats, who were determined to support a Democrat at every level because of the stakes. That will allow the Democrats to protect or grow their House seats and to sweep every competitive Senate race to win back control. In the states, the Democrats could net another four hundred state legislative seats in the malapportioned districts that were meant to be a firewall against such an eventuality.
This final battle has to be joined in 2020.
Donald Trump has never given up on the Tea Party–Evangelical coalition that is his base. The Trump administration every day further brands the GOP as a socially conservative, anti-immigrant, and America First party. The Republicans will go into battle as Donald Trump’s party and never acknowledge the midyear repudiation of Trump and never challenge the president, even after he left them hanging during the longest government shutdown in the country’s history. In my polls as the nominating began, two thirds of Republicans wanted the party to continue to move in the direction set by President Trump.5
After Attorney General William Barr’s controlled release of the Mueller report, President Trump, in full victim mode, told Trump voters, “defend your vote” from the liberal media who have tried to steal the election from you.
The Republicans could easily nominate at some point a ticket with Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Tom Cotton running for president and vice president respectively.
Mike Pence is deeply religious and a social conservative to his bones, who as vice president has delivered the socially conservative Supreme Court President Trump promised. He has also led the administration’s campaign against China, in the trade war and sanctions against Chinese companies. He called out China for “employing a whole-of-government approach, using political, economic, and military tools, as well as propaganda, to advance its influence and benefit its interests in the United States.” He’s accused China of Russian-like political chicanery to hurt Donald Trump, an argument the White House has unsuccessfully advanced. And he spotlighted China’s plan to control 90 percent of the “world’s most advanced industries.” That scale of threat required that the United States and our allies demand major structural changes and refuse Chinese investment and simply choose sides.6
Senator Tom Cotton is one of the strongest defenders of the Donald Trump project in the Congress, including using whatever leverage is needed to build the wall, but he is a lot steelier on immigration than the president. Cotton’s immigration plan reduced legal immigration, and he was one of two senators to vote against Trump’s shutdown plan because it granted “amnesty” to Dreamers. Cotton was an early sponsor of legislation to bar the giant Chinese telecommunication company Huawei from operating in the United States. And when President Trump talked about reopening discussion of America’s “One China policy,” Cotton agreed that Chinese leaders “need to remember that we are the world’s superpower and they are not.”7
So until there is a reckoning, the Republicans will run nationally as a party fearful of the New America and even more determined to stop them from governing. The GOP will be committed to reducing immigration and building the wall. It will promise to respect the sanctity of life and Christian values. It will be unabashedly pro-business that must be freed from regulation. It will deny the climate change scare stories so the oil and coal companies can keep us fossil fuel dependent. It will cut taxes again and slash government spending and rein in entitlements. It will promise to carry forward President Trump’s economic cold war with China and trade agreements that failed to protect American jobs. America will no longer carry the weight of the world on its shoulders. “We’ll not be saps. We’ll put America first.”
That Republican Party will be shunned by the affluent, college educated, and professionals and in the suburbs. Many Republicans will defect. Democrats will be engaged to defeat it as never before. Millennials and the generation behind them will exceed the baby boomers in their vote share, and, for them, Republicans might as well be lepers.
message on issues of corruption and draining the swamp and an economy rigged against the middle class will have gotten heard.
The dynamic metropolitan areas, affluent suburbs, and women will so decisively repudiate Trump’s GOP that Colorado will look like a deep blue state and North Carolina and Arizona will tip late to the Democrats.
The country will not know early whether the Democrats pick up Georgia, Florida, and Texas because Republican governors and secretaries of state, armed with new playbooks from the Koch brothers, will work passionately and creatively and without shame to disenfranchise as many black, Hispanic, and minority voters as humanly possible. In 2018, they purged about 700,000 registered voters in Florida, those who had not voted in the prior presidential election. In Georgia, the NAACP estimated the shortening of the early voting window and the closing of polling stations may have cost Stacey Abrams upwards of hundreds of thousands of votes. Both states were stolen from the Democrats, who had lost them by about fifty thousand votes.
The stakes are even higher in 2020, and the U.S. Supreme Court will give GOP state election officials wide latitude to suppress the vote and steal the election.2
A divided GOP will make the election even more shattering. There will be no shortage of Republicans who challenge President Trump and his Tea Party politics in the primaries, even though the Republican National Committee will do everything possible to rig the game. Donald Trump has no shame. The anti-Trump candidates will be humiliated in the primaries against the pro-Trump forces, which are dominant, loyal, and vengeful. And you will know something unique is happening when you see the more affluent, college graduates, and independents showing up to vote in the Democratic primaries, where they are welcomed.
Republicans could very well lose Florida if John Kasich leads a third-party ticket. He would play the role of Ross Perot in 1992, whose voters were mostly disaffected Republicans, or Ralph Nader in 2000, supported mostly by disaffected Democrats. Nader won 76,000 votes in Florida.
The former Republican governor has called out the incivility, the lack of morality, the tolerance of racism and sexism, the lack of concern for the poor, and most of all, the Tea Party ethos that rejects the idea that the two political parties can work together to advance the common good. In my polls in 2018 and 2019, 10 percent of Republicans supported Kasich on a third-party ticket.3 One third of moderate Republicans broke away to support him, and Kasich could well make inroads with observant Catholics and secular conservatives, who hate the tone of this Tea Party–dominated party.4
By contrast, the Democrats will be united and consolidated, substantially increasing the chances of even bigger down-ballot gains. Commentators forget how divisive the 2016 Democratic primaries between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders were, when 20 percent of his voters failed to vote for Clinton in the general. President Trump has unified Democrats for now. And while the prospective nominees vary in their boldness, the Democratic base is unified in its support for bold changes, as you will see later in this chapter.
In my polls in 2019, the Democratic presidential candidate won the support of 95 percent of self-identified Democrats, who were determined to support a Democrat at every level because of the stakes. That will allow the Democrats to protect or grow their House seats and to sweep every competitive Senate race to win back control. In the states, the Democrats could net another four hundred state legislative seats in the malapportioned districts that were meant to be a firewall against such an eventuality.
This final battle has to be joined in 2020.
Donald Trump has never given up on the Tea Party–Evangelical coalition that is his base. The Trump administration every day further brands the GOP as a socially conservative, anti-immigrant, and America First party. The Republicans will go into battle as Donald Trump’s party and never acknowledge the midyear repudiation of Trump and never challenge the president, even after he left them hanging during the longest government shutdown in the country’s history. In my polls as the nominating began, two thirds of Republicans wanted the party to continue to move in the direction set by President Trump.5
After Attorney General William Barr’s controlled release of the Mueller report, President Trump, in full victim mode, told Trump voters, “defend your vote” from the liberal media who have tried to steal the election from you.
The Republicans could easily nominate at some point a ticket with Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Tom Cotton running for president and vice president respectively.
Mike Pence is deeply religious and a social conservative to his bones, who as vice president has delivered the socially conservative Supreme Court President Trump promised. He has also led the administration’s campaign against China, in the trade war and sanctions against Chinese companies. He called out China for “employing a whole-of-government approach, using political, economic, and military tools, as well as propaganda, to advance its influence and benefit its interests in the United States.” He’s accused China of Russian-like political chicanery to hurt Donald Trump, an argument the White House has unsuccessfully advanced. And he spotlighted China’s plan to control 90 percent of the “world’s most advanced industries.” That scale of threat required that the United States and our allies demand major structural changes and refuse Chinese investment and simply choose sides.6
Senator Tom Cotton is one of the strongest defenders of the Donald Trump project in the Congress, including using whatever leverage is needed to build the wall, but he is a lot steelier on immigration than the president. Cotton’s immigration plan reduced legal immigration, and he was one of two senators to vote against Trump’s shutdown plan because it granted “amnesty” to Dreamers. Cotton was an early sponsor of legislation to bar the giant Chinese telecommunication company Huawei from operating in the United States. And when President Trump talked about reopening discussion of America’s “One China policy,” Cotton agreed that Chinese leaders “need to remember that we are the world’s superpower and they are not.”7
So until there is a reckoning, the Republicans will run nationally as a party fearful of the New America and even more determined to stop them from governing. The GOP will be committed to reducing immigration and building the wall. It will promise to respect the sanctity of life and Christian values. It will be unabashedly pro-business that must be freed from regulation. It will deny the climate change scare stories so the oil and coal companies can keep us fossil fuel dependent. It will cut taxes again and slash government spending and rein in entitlements. It will promise to carry forward President Trump’s economic cold war with China and trade agreements that failed to protect American jobs. America will no longer carry the weight of the world on its shoulders. “We’ll not be saps. We’ll put America first.”
That Republican Party will be shunned by the affluent, college educated, and professionals and in the suburbs. Many Republicans will defect. Democrats will be engaged to defeat it as never before. Millennials and the generation behind them will exceed the baby boomers in their vote share, and, for them, Republicans might as well be lepers.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Will the party be so shattered that the Republican National Committee dare not conduct a postmortem as it did in 2012?
Today’s Republican Party cannot be saved unless it stops being an anti-immigrant party in an immigrant country. That was obvious to all in 2012 when the party establishment and Fox News accepted that conclusion, but the GOP establishment was quickly sidelined by the dominant forces in the Republican Party that were still in full revolt against the New America. They were ultimately led by Donald Trump.
And when President Trump demanded the country in 2018 and 2019 find the money to build a thirty-foot concrete wall on the Mexican border, the president was giving the finger to those caravans of dark people hiding their Muslim terrorists ready to kill you.
This GOP can’t reform itself because defeat in this battle against growing immigrants only confirms that Democrats were right. President Trump’s brand of conservatism is California’s: he cannot give up his fear of demography and the battle against immigrants. They are one and the same, writ large. President Trump would no more stop worrying about demography and immigrants than get on television without any clothes.
As we saw in chapter 4, “The Tea Party–Trump Decade,” California’s GOP faced demographic changes early on that led to the Tea Party and Trump’s GOP’s disastrous last battle against immigration.
The total repudiation of the GOP in California in 2018 tells you that shattering defeats don’t push leaders who will reform the party to the fore, but instead leaders who will make it irrelevant. That is the term serious journalists used after the 2018 debacle. The California Republican Party “is teetering on the brink of irrelevance,” Adam Nagourney wrote in The New York Times. Mark Barabak and Michael Finnegan’s article in The Los Angeles Timeswas titled “California Republican Party Drifts Closer to Irrelevance.”
President Trump got 32 percent of the vote in a state that used to elect Republicans statewide in 2016. The GOP gubernatorial candidate, who fully embraced President Trump, got 38 percent of the vote and even lost Orange County in 2018. He only got on to the general election ballot because so many Democratic candidates had divided up the first-round vote.8 Republicans lost every statewide office, and Democrats won three quarters of the seats in the state assembly, the biggest margin in one hundred years.
Donald Trump has never given up on the Tea Party–Evangelical coalition that is his base. The Trump administration every day further brands the GOP as a socially conservative, anti-immigrant, and America First party. The Republicans will go into battle as Donald Trump’s party and never acknowledge the midyear repudiation of Trump and never challenge the president, even after he left them hanging during the longest government shutdown in the country’s history. In my polls as the nominating began, two thirds of Republicans wanted the party to continue to move in the direction set by President Trump.5
After Attorney General William Barr’s controlled release of the Mueller report, President Trump, in full victim mode, told Trump voters, “defend your vote” from the liberal media who have tried to steal the election from you.
The Republicans could easily nominate at some point a ticket with Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Tom Cotton running for president and vice president respectively.
Mike Pence is deeply religious and a social conservative to his bones, who as vice president has delivered the socially conservative Supreme Court President Trump promised. He has also led the administration’s campaign against China, in the trade war and sanctions against Chinese companies. He called out China for “employing a whole-of-government approach, using political, economic, and military tools, as well as propaganda, to advance its influence and benefit its interests in the United States.” He’s accused China of Russian-like political chicanery to hurt Donald Trump, an argument the White House has unsuccessfully advanced. And he spotlighted China’s plan to control 90 percent of the “world’s most advanced industries.” That scale of threat required that the United States and our allies demand major structural changes and refuse Chinese investment and simply choose sides.6
Senator Tom Cotton is one of the strongest defenders of the Donald Trump project in the Congress, including using whatever leverage is needed to build the wall, but he is a lot steelier on immigration than the president. Cotton’s immigration plan reduced legal immigration, and he was one of two senators to vote against Trump’s shutdown plan because it granted “amnesty” to Dreamers. Cotton was an early sponsor of legislation to bar the giant Chinese telecommunication company Huawei from operating in the United States. And when President Trump talked about reopening discussion of America’s “One China policy,” Cotton agreed that Chinese leaders “need to remember that we are the world’s superpower and they are not.”7
So until there is a reckoning, the Republicans will run nationally as a party fearful of the New America and even more determined to stop them from governing. The GOP will be committed to reducing immigration and building the wall. It will promise to respect the sanctity of life and Christian values. It will be unabashedly pro-business that must be freed from regulation. It will deny the climate change scare stories so the oil and coal companies can keep us fossil fuel dependent. It will cut taxes again and slash government spending and rein in entitlements. It will promise to carry forward President Trump’s economic cold war with China and trade agreements that failed to protect American jobs. America will no longer carry the weight of the world on its shoulders. “We’ll not be saps. We’ll put America first.”
That Republican Party will be shunned by the affluent, college educated, and professionals and in the suburbs. Many Republicans will defect. Democrats will be engaged to defeat it as never before. Millennials and the generation behind them will exceed the baby boomers in their vote share, and, for them, Republicans might as well be lepers.
[]
Will the party be so shattered that the Republican National Committee dare not conduct a postmortem as it did in 2012?
Today’s Republican Party cannot be saved unless it stops being an anti-immigrant party in an immigrant country. That was obvious to all in 2012 when the party establishment and Fox News accepted that conclusion, but the GOP establishment was quickly sidelined by the dominant forces in the Republican Party that were still in full revolt against the New America. They were ultimately led by Donald Trump.
And when President Trump demanded the country in 2018 and 2019 find the money to build a thirty-foot concrete wall on the Mexican border, the president was giving the finger to those caravans of dark people hiding their Muslim terrorists ready to kill you.
This GOP can’t reform itself because defeat in this battle against growing immigrants only confirms that Democrats were right. President Trump’s brand of conservatism is California’s: he cannot give up his fear of demography and the battle against immigrants. They are one and the same, writ large. President Trump would no more stop worrying about demography and immigrants than get on television without any clothes.
As we saw in chapter 4, “The Tea Party–Trump Decade,” California’s GOP faced demographic changes early on that led to the Tea Party and Trump’s GOP’s disastrous last battle against immigration.
The total repudiation of the GOP in California in 2018 tells you that shattering defeats don’t push leaders who will reform the party to the fore, but instead leaders who will make it irrelevant. That is the term serious journalists used after the 2018 debacle. The California Republican Party “is teetering on the brink of irrelevance,” Adam Nagourney wrote in The New York Times. Mark Barabak and Michael Finnegan’s article in The Los Angeles Timeswas titled “California Republican Party Drifts Closer to Irrelevance.”
President Trump got 32 percent of the vote in a state that used to elect Republicans statewide in 2016. The GOP gubernatorial candidate, who fully embraced President Trump, got 38 percent of the vote and even lost Orange County in 2018. He only got on to the general election ballot because so many Democratic candidates had divided up the first-round vote.8 Republicans lost every statewide office, and Democrats won three quarters of the seats in the state assembly, the biggest margin in one hundred years.
The California Republicans were left with only seven House seats in the fifty-three-member delegation and lost every seat in Orange County, home of the tax revolt and Ronald Reagan. Republican registration fell to under 25 percent, below that of those with no party affiliation.9
Ron Brownstein was puzzled after the 2018 election on why California’s Republican House incumbents didn’t show any signs of independence from the president, unlike endangered House members in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Florida. They all voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act without a replacement in a state that had fully implemented the law. They all voted for the corporate tax cut law that raised taxes on homeowners in high-tax states like California. They all voted to allow permit holders from open-carry states to preempt California’s strong gun regulations.10
Brownstein observed, “As the California GOP has contracted, it has generally positioned itself more overtly against these rising populations, both by maintaining [a] staunchly conservative agenda on social issues and also embracing Trump’s open hostility to immigration.” After the election debacle, the GOP Senate members elected a new leader who believes that “God’s hand” should have a bigger say in legislating. Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy chided House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for blocking the wall.11
The GOP can’t rescue itself because its struggle against the New America began in California and was nationalized by a Tea Party–dominated GOP that elected Donald Trump as president. The prospect of their losing only increases their certainty of a take-no-prisoners battle against a multicultural America.
The GOP can be saved only by the Democratic Party that will lead this era of reform.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
vnatale wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 12:11 amCapture.JPG
You are going to be very disappointed in November.
The "analysis" you have posted will look just as prescient as the "Why aren't I 50 points ahead?" speech.
The Democrats are fielding the worst Presidential candidate in my lifetime, and Trump has more support in the Republican party than did Reagan or even Lincoln.
I will NOT disagree with your last sentence.
Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Shocker! Not all polls are equal. FiveThirtyEight has done an interesting job of ranking polls by their methodology, general accuracy and political biases.
On a side note, there weren't a whole lot of new polls last week except in Democratic leaning states, which generally had no real surprises. Biden was ahead consistently and by wide margins. I saw no point in posting them. In the future I will probably skip polls from states that are normally reliably Democratic or Republican unless they are signalling something unusual like the last two from Texas.
MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 1:24 pm
The only polls that really matter are in the 4 or so swing states in the upper midwest and maybe one other. The rest of the states are already a lock for red or blue. It's not like CA, IL, NY are ever going to vote red.
I largely agree which is why I am not bothering to post the polls from states that are obviously not in play. The states that are likely battlegrounds are Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Some polls have suggested Texas and Georgia might be in play, but I am skeptical. Trump won almost all of these states. But often by razor thin margins.
MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 1:24 pm
The only polls that really matter are in the 4 or so swing states in the upper midwest and maybe one other. The rest of the states are already a lock for red or blue. It's not like CA, IL, NY are ever going to vote red.
I largely agree which is why I am not bothering to post the polls from states that are obviously not in play. The states that are likely battlegrounds are Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Some polls have suggested Texas and Georgia might be in play, but I am skeptical. Trump won almost all of these states. But often by razor thin margins.
Seeing my state on here makes me happy that for probably the first time in my entire life my vote may actually matter.
dualstow wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 8:06 pm
I hadn’t heard of Justin Amash until today. Going to be interesting.
You must have missed the one below and then the subsequent response to it?
Vinny
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Post
by vnatale » Mon May 04, 2020 6:15 pm
As both a Never-Biden and Never-Trump voter....I finally have a choice! Justin Amash as the Libertarian candidate!
Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Yeah, I’ve been staying out of the political threads for a while. I did search the forum for his last name and nothing came up. I guess it hadn’t been indexed yet, or the search was hanging and I gave up.
vnatale wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 7:26 pmCapture.JPG
If you actually think that has any relationship to reality, you can bet on it on PredictIt.
I wouldn't recommend it, though: Biden is going to get smoked in November, and so is the Democrat party in general.
But you have a few more months to fantasize, so have fun while it lasts.
