Some 2020 General Election Polls

[sophie]

Well people, apparently black activitists disagree with you about the role of policing in crime control. I just came across a remarkably honest Washington Post article that must have somehow got past their BLM censors, and literally I burst out laughing when I read this little gem:

Gerald Griggs, vice president of the Atlanta NAACP and a lawyer, blamed police for much of the recent crime, suggesting they have not been doing enough.

"A lot of the onus for the violence falls right at the feet of law enforcement," he said. "There are certain elements in our community that don't take a break when the police take a break. You're sworn to protect and defend, but when there are a few rogue [police] being held accountable you decide to shirk your responsibility? That speaks volumes about why people were protesting to begin with."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html

[Libertarian666]

Well people, apparently black activitists disagree with you about the role of policing in crime control. I just came across a remarkably honest Washington Post article that must have somehow got past their BLM censors, and literally I burst out laughing when I read this little gem:

Gerald Griggs, vice president of the Atlanta NAACP and a lawyer, blamed police for much of the recent crime, suggesting they have not been doing enough.

"A lot of the onus for the violence falls right at the feet of law enforcement," he said. "There are certain elements in our community that don't take a break when the police take a break. You're sworn to protect and defend, but when there are a few rogue [police] being held accountable you decide to shirk your responsibility? That speaks volumes about why people were protesting to begin with."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html

Whoever let that article through will probably be canceled.
Even though it blames the police for not doing their jobs after being vilified by the politicians who tell them what to do (and not to do), which is absurd and very unfair, I'm sure it isn't nearly rough enough on the police for BLM.

[Kriegsspiel]

You're welcome to try to prove that the reproductive rate among blacks suddenly increased 18-26 years ago, after remaining stable for more than 2 decades. Best of luck with that.

Whoever let that article through will probably be canceled.

To combine these two points, Peter Frost recently posted about a peer reviewed study that was removed from the literature without cause. It was from a researcher who had previously done work on cognitive differences between populations. He discusses some implications.

[Libertarian666]

You're welcome to try to prove that the reproductive rate among blacks suddenly increased 18-26 years ago, after remaining stable for more than 2 decades. Best of luck with that.

Whoever let that article through will probably be canceled.

To combine these two points, Peter Frost recently posted about a peer reviewed study that was removed from the literature without cause. It was from a researcher who had previously done work on cognitive differences between populations. He discusses some implications.

There cannot be any cognitive differences between populations, because that would be RAYCISS!!
Therefore, the explanation of the fact that Ashkenazis have 20% of the Nobel Prizes (a larger percentage if you count only the real Prizes, not the fake ones in economics and "peace"), despite being much less than 1% of the world population, is "Jewish privilege" or something like that.

[Libertarian666]

You're welcome to try to prove that the reproductive rate among blacks suddenly increased 18-26 years ago, after remaining stable for more than 2 decades. Best of luck with that.

Whoever let that article through will probably be canceled.

To combine these two points, Peter Frost recently posted about a peer reviewed study that was removed from the literature without cause. It was from a researcher who had previously done work on cognitive differences between populations. He discusses some implications.

Oh, there was cause all right: Marxism.

[Ad Orientem]

General Election: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Biden 51, Trump 40 Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D)* Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 47, Trump 44 Biden +3
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9


Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 51, Trump 45 Biden +6
Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 43 Biden +7
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Gravis Biden 53, Trump 43 Biden +10
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 42 Biden +6
Missouri: Trump vs. Biden SLU/YouGov Trump 50, Biden 43 Trump +7
Montana: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Trump 51, Biden 42 Trump +9
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 47, Trump 46 Biden +1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 42 Biden +8
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth Biden 53, Trump 40 Biden +13
Texas: Trump vs. Biden OAN/Gravis Trump 46, Biden 44 Trump +2
Texas: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Trump 46, Biden 45 Trump +1
Texas: Trump vs. Biden Dallas Morning News Trump 43, Biden 48 Biden +5
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 42 Biden +6



# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error

(Edit: I added the NBC/WSJ poll that was released about an hour after I posted the above.)

[vnatale]

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[vnatale]

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[vnatale]

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[Ad Orientem]

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Now add 10% to the numbers for Trump in each category to account for the silent Trump voters and you might be closer to the actual numbers.
Of course this means an electoral landslide for Trump.

Either you slipped a digit or you need to lay off the left handed Luckys. History suggests a "closet Trump" vote of around 1-2% which in a close election (i.e. 2016) and with a strong turnout, coupled with weak turnout for Clinton, was enough to carry a bunch of swing states he wasn't expected to, albeit by his fingernails. Trump won PA, MI and WI by a combined margin of around 107k votes out of 120 million cast nationally. This year the Democrats are on fire and it is team Trump that is lagging in enthusiasm for all but his hardcore supporters. (Maybe 35% of the electorate). The level of denial I have been witnessing among Trump fans, is bordering on delusion.

[Ad Orientem]

Joe Biden is wrong on a wide range of issues that I care about. But he is not a fascist socialist. And the lawlessness that most Americans are concerned with is centered at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

[sophie]

Joe Biden is wrong on a wide range of issues that I care about. But he is not a fascist socialist. And the lawlessness that most Americans are concerned with is centered at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

regarding your first sentence: Joe Biden USED to be a moderate Democrat. He's no longer capable of that. Once elected, he would simply be a route by which radical Democrats like AOC will gain power. Hoping more people come to realize that.

regarding your second sentence: Many things Trump does are in bad taste and some of his executive orders can be (and have been) challenged, but lawless? Please provide details as I'm not aware of anything Trump has done that rises to that description. On the contrary, I'd say the Democrats are doing a pretty darned good job at being lawless.

[Ad Orientem]

Joe Biden is wrong on a wide range of issues that I care about. But he is not a fascist socialist. And the lawlessness that most Americans are concerned with is centered at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

He may not be personally, but he has embraced much of the far left platform to appease that faction of the party.

I can't even respond to your second sentence without being impolite other than to say the riots are a bigger concern to most people who do not have TDS.

Polling data would suggest then that TDS now afflicts a substantial majority of Americans.

[Maddy]

Either you slipped a digit or you need to lay off the left handed Luckys. History suggests a "closet Trump" vote of around 1-2% which in a close election (i.e. 2016) and with a strong turnout, coupled with weak turnout for Clinton, was enough to carry a bunch of swing states he wasn't expected to, albeit by his fingernails. Trump won PA, MI and WI by a combined margin of around 107k votes out of 120 million cast nationally. This year the Democrats are on fire and it is team Trump that is lagging in enthusiasm for all but his hardcore supporters. (Maybe 35% of the electorate). The level of denial I have been witnessing among Trump fans, is bordering on delusion.

I'd submit that there is no historical precedent for the Marxist hijacking of the democratic party, or what may be happening in the minds of moderate left-wing voters as a result.

[Cortopassi]

What Trump supporters are missing, maybe, is there is an increase in people like me (moderate/left leaning) that supported Trump because we didn't want Hilary, but are much more ok with Biden this time around.

A good portion of this is not logical. I am smart enough to realize that about myself.

You can make a list of policies enacted by Trump on one side and Biden on the other and take the names away, and for all I know, I'd be happier with the policies that Trump is doing.

But it doesn't matter. That's what you might be missing. Since it is wrapped in Trump, it just doesn't matter. I'd rather have almost anybody but Trump. Logical? No. Reality? Yes.

When there are people on the fence going into the voting booth, with Trump and Biden staring back at them from the sheet or screen, I bet you the majority are going to say to themselves I cannot have another 4 years of the divisiveness that just happened and they will vote Biden.

[pp4me]

I have absolutely no evidence to back this up but I have a conspiracy theory that the Dem plan is for Biden to resign some time before his first term is up. Therefore the VP nominee is going to need a lot more scrutiny than usual.

[anato]

When there are people on the fence going into the voting booth, with Trump and Biden staring back at them from the sheet or screen, I bet you the majority are going to say to themselves I cannot have another 4 years of the divisiveness that just happened and they will vote Biden.

I'm not a citizen, hence I don't vote, but I live here and cannot but see this happening while being a tad detached. It honestly feels this is like having 2 kids, one making a huge tantrum, 4y long, and as a parent giving in just to make it go away. (The left, politicians and media, in this case being the kid making the tantrum).

I understand the reasoning, and having 2 kids I do really appreciate the bliss of quiet, but it really really really feels like the wrong way to cast a vote.
It's like saying to the left now (and could be the right or whoever else tomorrow): just make as much noise as you can, make my life as insofferable as possible, then I'll cave in and you can have it.

[Maddy]

I'm really amazed that somebody hasn't denounced the democratic party's abuse of an obviously disabled man, and why Adult Protective Services hasn't shut this whole thing down.

[Libertarian666]

I'm really amazed that somebody hasn't denounced the democratic party's abuse of an obviously disabled man, and why Adult Protective Services hasn't shut this whole thing down.

Because all they care about is power. The fact that he should be in memory care instead of running for President is irrelevant to them so long as he serves their purposes.

[flyingpylon]

What Trump supporters are missing, maybe, is there is an increase in people like me (moderate/left leaning) that supported Trump because we didn't want Hilary, but are much more ok with Biden this time around.

A good portion of this is not logical. I am smart enough to realize that about myself.

You can make a list of policies enacted by Trump on one side and Biden on the other and take the names away, and for all I know, I'd be happier with the policies that Trump is doing.

But it doesn't matter. That's what you might be missing. Since it is wrapped in Trump, it just doesn't matter. I'd rather have almost anybody but Trump. Logical? No. Reality? Yes.

When there are people on the fence going into the voting booth, with Trump and Biden staring back at them from the sheet or screen, I bet you the majority are going to say to themselves I cannot have another 4 years of the divisiveness that just happened and they will vote Biden.

You keep coming back to “divisiveness”. There’s no question that Trump can be inartful, abrasive, tactless, antagonistic, etc. and clearly he does himself no favors with a portion of the population. I wish he could be better about that and be far more effective at communicating his policy goals.

But I would argue that much of the divisiveness is coming from his opponents whether they be Democrats, Never Trumpers, Media, etc. The amount of fake news, false narratives and all sorts of other bad behavior is way off the charts. They push the narrative that Trump is divisive and then do the same things (or worse) that they accuse him of. That effectively plays to people’s emotions and ratchets up the discord and division.

So Trump is not blameless. But if division is truly a major issue for you, you really need to take a good hard look at all of the instigators.

[sophie]

Either you slipped a digit or you need to lay off the left handed Luckys. History suggests a "closet Trump" vote of around 1-2% which in a close election (i.e. 2016) and with a strong turnout, coupled with weak turnout for Clinton, was enough to carry a bunch of swing states he wasn't expected to, albeit by his fingernails. Trump won PA, MI and WI by a combined margin of around 107k votes out of 120 million cast nationally. This year the Democrats are on fire and it is team Trump that is lagging in enthusiasm for all but his hardcore supporters. (Maybe 35% of the electorate). The level of denial I have been witnessing among Trump fans, is bordering on delusion.

I'd submit that there is no historical precedent for the Marxist hijacking of the democratic party, or what may be happening in the minds of moderate left-wing voters as a result.

I think we are all fully aware that there is a sizeable voter demographic who will pull the lever for anyone but Trump because they've come to hate him so much. - either because of reasoned opposition to some of the statements he has made in the past, or due to the effects of the intensive media campaign against him. If the Democrats start to look too unappetizing though, a good chunk of this demographic will probably either vote for a throwaway candidate or just stay home. Cortopassi, at this point are you planning to vote for Biden?? And what would make you consider a third option?

There is also a demographic of former Clinton voters who have recently become alarmed at the agenda of the Democratic Party and the results of Democratic policies in big cities. I think it's quite likely this demographic will grow larger over time. Plus, Biden is bound to look worse and worse as the campaign really gets going, due to the physical and mental toll. Especially if he starts sundowning during evening events in the fall, when the days get shorter and we go back to Standard Time just weeks before the election.

It'll be very hard to predict which way the election will go given all these variables. Polls will be mostly useless right up to the election.

[jalanlong]

I have absolutely no evidence to back this up but I have a conspiracy theory that the Dem plan is for Biden to resign some time before his first term is up. Therefore the VP nominee is going to need a lot more scrutiny than usual.

You're way too late on the timescale.
Should the Democrats by some tremendous misfortune be able to steal the election, he won't even make it to inauguration day

Yeah conspiracy theories abound that after the convention Biden will drop out due to some mysterious "health issue" and they will substitute Hillary or Cuomo in his place. They will not sub Sanders,Harris or Warren under the justification that the people already spoke in the primaries and do not want them.

[jalanlong]

What Trump supporters are missing, maybe, is there is an increase in people like me (moderate/left leaning) that supported Trump because we didn't want Hilary, but are much more ok with Biden this time around.

A good portion of this is not logical. I am smart enough to realize that about myself.

You can make a list of policies enacted by Trump on one side and Biden on the other and take the names away, and for all I know, I'd be happier with the policies that Trump is doing.

But it doesn't matter. That's what you might be missing. Since it is wrapped in Trump, it just doesn't matter. I'd rather have almost anybody but Trump. Logical? No. Reality? Yes.

When there are people on the fence going into the voting booth, with Trump and Biden staring back at them from the sheet or screen, I bet you the majority are going to say to themselves I cannot have another 4 years of the divisiveness that just happened and they will vote Biden.

You keep coming back to “divisiveness”. There’s no question that Trump can be inartful, abrasive, tactless, antagonistic, etc. and clearly he does himself no favors with a portion of the population. I wish he could be better about that and be far more effective at communicating his policy goals.

But I would argue that much of the divisiveness is coming from his opponents whether they be Democrats, Never Trumpers, Media, etc. The amount of fake news, false narratives and all sorts of other bad behavior is way off the charts. They push the narrative that Trump is divisive and then do the same things (or worse) that they accuse him of. That effectively plays to people’s emotions and ratchets up the discord and division.

So Trump is not blameless. But if division is truly a major issue for you, you really need to take a good hard look at all of the instigators.

I know that a lot of people right now feel that this is specific to Trump. But to me this is just a continuation and raising of the stakes of the reaction for each Republican president of my lifetime. Don't forget, Bush Jr. was Hitler before Trump was Hitler. Therefore (as I said in another post) I am very curious to see how this goes when the next mainstream Republican is elected. If Trump loses this election, the media and left may be so emboldened to think that they made it happen that any and all future Republicans (even if they are a Mitt Romney milquetoast candidate) may get the Trump treatment going forward.

[Ad Orientem]

Polls from the last 7 days.

General Election: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 45, Trump 38 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8
General Election: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post Biden 54, Trump 44 Biden +10


Arizona: Trump vs. Biden OH Predictive Insights Biden 49, Trump 44 Biden +5
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
Florida: Trump vs. Biden GQR Biden 55, Trump 44 Biden +11
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 50, Trump 39 Biden +11
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
Texas: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Trump 44, Biden 45 Biden +1


# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error

[Cortopassi]

Polls from the last 7 days.

General Election: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 45, Trump 38 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8
General Election: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post Biden 54, Trump 44 Biden +10


Arizona: Trump vs. Biden OH Predictive Insights Biden 49, Trump 44 Biden +5
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
Florida: Trump vs. Biden GQR Biden 55, Trump 44 Biden +11
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 50, Trump 39 Biden +11
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
Texas: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Trump 44, Biden 45 Biden +1


# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error

Fake news. When are they going to come out with the real polls?