vp: Procter & Gamble

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dualstow
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vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by dualstow » Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:12 am

I sold it at exactly the wrong time. 😭


That is all.
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by sophie » Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:05 am

Guess that means it just shot up. My sympathies dualstow! Did you have any idea that was coming?

I've been building up a basket of individual stocks within my PP (not as a VP). I've got a small collection now, and it's kind of fun to watch the up and down gyrations. Overall they roughly parallel the index funds. I don't miss having a VP and trying to guess when one will go up and down, because I can see for myself just how unpredictable it is. And, just too much work to try and keep on top of a company's activities to make those educated bets.

p.s. what's the new avatar? It looks like a ... microscope? Or a rabbit eating a leaf?
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by dualstow » Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:32 am

* It just shot up again, yeah. 2nd burst since I sold. I knew that the activist Nathan something was *trying*, but I didn’t know he’d be so successful.

Well, I didn’t have a large stake, so it’s mostly psychological. But, it’s also a reminder that I should leave dividend stocks alone and keep indexing. I actually did buy more VTSAX with the proceeds from PG, but still...psychology!

*
sophie wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:05 am
I've been building up a basket of individual stocks within my PP (not as a VP). I've got a small collection now, and it's kind of fun to watch the up and down gyrations. Overall they roughly parallel the index funds.

Care to share what’s in your stable?

* profile picture: see Cortopassi’s post - viewtopic.php?f=9&t=9131&start=768#p173848
or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adventure_(Atari_2600)
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by dualstow » Thu Jan 24, 2019 3:16 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 12:51 pm
If it makes you fell any better, hopefully there will be another dive when the fallout from the ill-advised anti-man commercial for Gillette razors has a negative effect on sales.
O0 I haven't seen the ad, but I have heard about the controversy. Yeah, maybe it'll have that silver lining O0
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by sophie » Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:51 am

If the stock drops for that reason, it'll come back up. I've seen some really wild swings in mine, e.g. ED (Cons Edison) every time the NY legislature starts getting creative.

I've been following a fairly simple stock picking algorithm: get the list of stocks held by Berkshire Hathaway, divide into sectors, eliminate the health sector to avoid Stark Law issues, and pick a favorite (sort of at random) from each. Trying to stay away from big stocks like Apple that dominate the indexes I already own a lot of. So far: ED, HRL, CVX, and GM. I tax loss harvested GM in December, after it dropped like a rock, and it's gone up 11% since I bought it back 31 days later. Which is balanced by recent drops in the others. Next up should be tech, banking, and airlines - suggestions??

So what do you have left in individual stocks, dualstow?
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by dualstow » Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:18 am

Maybe 40 dividend payers/raisers and a sprinkling of tech plays.
The former began as both a gathering of dividends and a desire to mostly avoid the financial sector. (I don’t have a great revelation as to why). It quickly became dominated by consumer stocks, which are also the ones I find the hardest to let go: BGS, MCD, PEP, MO, DNKN, SBUX, etc. There is aerospace, like LMT, BA. Transportation: UNP. CVX is my remaining oil stock, and PSX which was the result of a spinoff of Conoco. There used to be many more oil stocks. Some utilities: AWR, NEE. No banks, but TRV, V.

Non-dividend: IRBT, GOOGL, AAPL, NFLX, ABMD, & the occasional irrational moonshot like CRSP...

Berkshire B shares.

Used to own a lot of healthcare stocks, but not much biotech.
Stark Law: are you not allowed to buy a broad healthcare etf?
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by sophie » Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:48 am

Quite a collection! I was thinking to build up to maybe 10-20 stocks. It's probably a good bet that people will continue to buy junk food, so I can understand not wanting to let go of those. Why not just keep them and enjoy the tax free dividends? It's zero ER, no hidden costs, zero manager risk, guaranteed qualified dividends, and you get more control over capital gains. And, I kind of like the fact that it's stock investing like people used to do it before the advent of mutual funds.

The Stark Law focuses on large directly-held stock holdings, but my university's lawyers tend to err on the side of caution and they require reporting of a lot more than the law specifies. A healthcare ETF might not pass muster. Plus things can change at any time. I have no problem giving that sector a miss, since it's covered by my index fund holdings. I figure my little stock basket will have some tracking error, and I'm ok with that.
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by moda0306 » Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:40 am

P&G aside, I was surprised to see what kind of "junk food" producers made up "consumer staples" stocks. I was tentatively going to go that direction. Now I'm leaning more towards some sort of base agribusiness direction built more on rice, beans, etc rather than on building it on the "value-add" of junk food producers.

Coca-cola was one of the top stocks in the consumer staples ETF I looked at (ishares I think). Since when is soda (pop where I'm from) a "staple?" Yes, I know they own other businesses and product lines, but aren't most of them garbage food products and drink products?

That said, it had a P/E ratio of like 11 or something, as well as a steady 3% dividend, which I really liked. I wish it was easier to look at the "effective financial statements" of the collective of stocks owned in the ETF.
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by dualstow » Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:58 am

I mean if you’re coming at this from a social responsibility angle, there are ETFs out there. Not for me. But, I like that I can vote on things like cage-free eggs as a McDonald’s shareholder.
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by Kbg » Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:16 am

Brk.b. There is a great board over on the Motley Fool that covers Berkshire Hathaway.
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by dualstow » Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:13 am

sophie wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:48 am
Why not just keep them and enjoy the tax free dividends? It's zero ER, no hidden costs, zero manager risk, guaranteed qualified dividends, and you get more control over capital gains. And, I kind of like the fact that it's stock investing like people used to do it before the advent of mutual funds.
All in all it's been a good journey.

The dividends (of the dividend-paying portion) are very near 7% yield-on-cost, and always above 3% yield-on-holdings. The value doubled in line with the Rule of 72, but I certainly expect things to slow down. Zero ER is great.

The negatives: of course there is severe manager risk, Sophie, as I'm the manager!
There is the opportunity cost -- I could have put everything into an S&P fund and done fine if I had stuck with it. There are all the ill-timed choices, like Bank of America that I don't see because I sold them along with those that stalled on their dividends. Have to weed the garden once in a while.

All in all, I'm happy. I didn't make any truly colossal mistakes. The pot keeps growing despite my lack of expertise. Yesterday, though, when spice company MKC dropped 12%, I thought about how much I enjoy the abstraction of a total index. ;-)

Soon, I'll be taking over the stock portion of a relative, and it's probably going to just be total domestic U.S. market for her. Maybe a little small-cap blend if she wants it, but I don't think she's interested.
Kbg wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:16 am
Brk.b. There is a great board over on the Motley Fool that covers Berkshire Hathaway.
Any paywall?
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by Kbg » Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:28 am

Nope. Not sure if you have to establish a login or not. I’ve been on that site since the 90s. There is a former Canadian hedge fund guy named mungofitch who posts there (lives in Monaco now I think) and is one of the best posters you will find anywhere. Excellent posts, and in every sense of the world a true gentleman and very generous. If you like value investing you will learn a ton.

He could post a simple “yes” and he will get 30 recs, it’s almost funny.
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by sophie » Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:12 am

moda0306 wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:40 am
Now I'm leaning more towards some sort of base agribusiness direction built more on rice, beans, etc rather than on building it on the "value-add" of junk food producers.
Your priorities as an investor are going to have to be different from your priorities as a food consumer. Eat rice and beans but how are they ever going to make money? Coke, Pepsi and McDonald's recipe is to take dirt cheap, government-subsidized products (corn syrup, flavorings etc) and turn them into a brand that gets advertised very successfully as a solution to depression, lack of meaningful lives etc. People will happily pay a premium for that.

I couldn't quite bring myself to buy one of those, which is how I ended up picking HRL. I also considered Home Depot and Costco.
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:34 am

sophie wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:12 am
moda0306 wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:40 am
Now I'm leaning more towards some sort of base agribusiness direction built more on rice, beans, etc rather than on building it on the "value-add" of junk food producers.
Your priorities as an investor are going to have to be different from your priorities as a food consumer. Eat rice and beans but how are they ever going to make money? Coke, Pepsi and McDonald's recipe is to take dirt cheap, government-subsidized products (corn syrup, flavorings etc) and turn them into a brand that gets advertised very successfully as a solution to depression, lack of meaningful lives etc. People will happily pay a premium for that.

I couldn't quite bring myself to buy one of those, which is how I ended up picking HRL. I also considered Home Depot and Costco.
Archer Daniels Midland look solid.
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by dualstow » Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:24 am

sophie wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:12 am
moda0306 wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:40 am
Now I'm leaning more towards some sort of base agribusiness direction built more on rice, beans, etc rather than on building it on the "value-add" of junk food producers.
Your priorities as an investor are going to have to be different from your priorities as a food consumer. Eat rice and beans but how are they ever going to make money? Coke, Pepsi and McDonald's recipe is to take dirt cheap, government-subsidized products (corn syrup, flavorings etc) and turn them into a brand that gets advertised very successfully as a solution to depression, lack of meaningful lives etc. People will happily pay a premium for that.

I couldn't quite bring myself to buy one of those, which is how I ended up picking HRL. I also considered Home Depot and Costco.
I followed you until HRL. Hormel is more healthful than Coke? Isn’t it just solid food instead of liquid, but with the same corn syrup? O0 A fine stock, in any case.
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by sophie » Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:54 am

Slightly :-) They do make things like pepperoni and Dinty Moore beef stew.

Not to criticize your holdings really...I wrote that just after a sentence about how just about any stock you buy in this category is somewhere between racing to the bottom and outright marketing food as a drug. If I really went with my conscience I'd have gone with Home Depot.

(as I'm nibbling on the last of my sour cream pancakes...yum.)
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by dualstow » Sun Jan 27, 2019 11:41 am

sophie wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:54 am
Not to criticize your holdings really...
Hey, criticize away. We’re all guilty, all of us indexers. I own Diageo. And PM and Altria. I would buy JUUL if it were public, if I were still picking up indie stocks.

CVS dumped cigarettes and became CVS Health- but they still have those aisles of candy, as we’ve written.

Are drug companies good or evil?

Used to own IBM- they have a shady past.

And as you know, I house an obligate carnivore!
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by sophie » Sun Jan 27, 2019 3:39 pm

And check your local CVS to see if they've jumped on the bandwagon of selling candies with CBD oil. My local grocery has them at the checkout register, at little kid height!! Geez!

I own Altria too, via my index funds. Yay. I'd say "YES" to your question for too many reasons to go into here. And yes...my two little obligate carnivores eat more and better meat than I do. I order raw food from a supplier in Maine. Who will never, ever have an IPO.
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by dualstow » Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:22 pm

sophie wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 3:39 pm
And yes...my two little obligate carnivores eat more and better meat than I do. I order raw food from a supplier in Maine. Who will never, ever have an IPO.
Cool. Is it Smalls? Probably not, I think Smalls is cooked.
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by sophie » Sun Jan 27, 2019 5:28 pm

dualstow wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:22 pm
sophie wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 3:39 pm
And yes...my two little obligate carnivores eat more and better meat than I do. I order raw food from a supplier in Maine. Who will never, ever have an IPO.
Cool. Is it Smalls? Probably not, I think Smalls is cooked.
WeFeedRaw. My kitties especially recommend the rabbit.
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by dualstow » Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:51 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:34 am
Archer Daniels Midland look solid.
I owned that for a while. Don't remember why I sold. I also had John Deere, which I believe MediumTex suggested when I was looking for an agriculture play. Someone also mentioned the etf 'MOO', but I don't remember buying it.
sophie wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:54 am
...
Not to criticize your holdings really...
I bought some individual corporate bonds, too. Just a sliver of a 1/1000th of a nibble, to see what it felt like. GE long-term bond and Google notes. (I remember MediumTEx commenting on the latter: "Why not just buy a ten-year treasury?")
So far, so good. I'm sure I got dinged on the price, but they're paying well. Of course, when GE went kablooey I no longer regretting not buying a bunch. I'll stick with VCIT for that.
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by sophie » Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:52 pm

I tried buying a corporate bond, when I was trying to think of something useful to do with Ally's investment account when they had that nice promotion going.

Between the $50 purchase fee and the fact that the interest is exposed to state/local taxes, it was not worth it. That bit of magic with Treasuries makes them hard to beat. Apart from I Bonds, treasuries are a better deal for me than a muni fund, CD, or Vanguard Prime. Except Ally's 5 year high yield CD, if it's held for at least 2 years. It's not quite fair to compare a 1 year T bill with a 5 year CD though.
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Re: vp: Procter & Gamble

Post by dualstow » Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:42 pm

sophie wrote:
Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:52 pm
I tried buying a corporate bond, when I was trying to think of something useful to do with Ally's investment account when they had that nice promotion going.

Between the $50 purchase fee and the fact that the interest is exposed to state/local taxes, it was not worth it.
Mine are in a solo 401(K) with Fidelity.
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