Interesting talk on capital preservation

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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Interesting talk on capital preservation

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Jul 26, 2018 9:51 am

hardlawjockey wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 11:06 pm
I don't see how it is a leap of faith to believe that economies tend to grow. Unless acted upon by external forces this would seem to be the norm to me.
I guess it depends on how much of an aberration the fossil-fuel era ends up being. For thousands of years economies (well, measuring real incomes, not "economies") didn't really grow:

Image

For economies to continue to grow as they have been for the past few generations, we'll probably need some substantial technological breakthroughs, either in the energy sector, or by making the things we use much more efficient in their use of energy. Otherwise, I'd suspect a convergence on historical norms. So I guess the leap of faith is believing either a) we can create an equivalent to one of the greatest stores of energy in the known universe (fossil fuels), or b) restructure our economy to do without them but continue to grow.
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Re: Interesting talk on capital preservation

Post by Xan » Thu Jul 26, 2018 10:05 am

boglerdude wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:04 pm
2 hours of confirmation bias for goldbugs :) Natural human skepticism has to be shut off when it comes to passive investing. Not sure what other areas of life are similar.
This video really isn't about gold, although it does touch on it. This guy is not a goldbug, either: he doesn't know whether gold is going to go up or down, and he doesn't particularly care. That's just how he's chosen to store his liquid assets.

Primarily this is about an old-school style of investing, where you think of yourself as an owner rather than as a gambler.
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Re: Interesting talk on capital preservation

Post by Desert » Thu Jul 26, 2018 10:36 am

As others have mentioned, two things really stood out for me:
1. Investing in privately held companies (being a true owner). I agree that there are so many unhealthy motivators inherent in public companies (short term thinking, etc.)
2. I really need to visit Switzerland.
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Re: Interesting talk on capital preservation

Post by boglerdude » Fri Jul 27, 2018 12:57 am

> we can create an equivalent to one of the greatest stores of energy in the known universe

We could run out of oil, or global warming will force us to stop?

> This guy is not a goldbug

I dunno, 35% gold. . .that means - compared to others - you think theres a high probability of government failure. But, in some countries there is...
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Re: Interesting talk on capital preservation

Post by Xan » Fri Jul 27, 2018 7:10 am

boglerdude wrote:
Fri Jul 27, 2018 12:57 am
> we can create an equivalent to one of the greatest stores of energy in the known universe

We could run out of oil, or global warming will force us to stop?

> This guy is not a goldbug

I dunno, 35% gold. . .that means - compared to others - you think theres a high probability of government failure. But, in some countries there is...
Would you call him a T-bill bug if he had 35% in T-bills? This is his liquid position.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Interesting talk on capital preservation

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:35 am

boglerdude wrote:
Fri Jul 27, 2018 12:57 am
> we can create an equivalent to one of the greatest stores of energy in the known universe

We could run out of oil, or global warming will force us to stop?
Neither of those would allow our economy to continue growing, in all likelihood it would shrink. In any case, we will eventually run out of recoverable fossil fuels, the "leap of faith" is a belief that economies will continue growing in spite of that.
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Re: Interesting talk on capital preservation

Post by pugchief » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:24 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:35 am
boglerdude wrote:
Fri Jul 27, 2018 12:57 am
> we can create an equivalent to one of the greatest stores of energy in the known universe

We could run out of oil, or global warming will force us to stop?
Neither of those would allow our economy to continue growing, in all likelihood it would shrink. In any case, we will eventually run out of recoverable fossil fuels, the "leap of faith" is a belief that economies will continue growing in spite of that.
In a decade, all cars will be electric. Isn't it likely that other uses of fossil fuels will also be replaced with better, cleaner technology? So will we really run out? And will it even mater?
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Re: Interesting talk on capital preservation

Post by boglerdude » Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:51 pm

Nuclear is doable with political will. Eventually global population will start shrinking, when the markets price that in it could be ugly. Ken Fisher said something like "the markets only look 6 months ahead" been wondering what he meant. iirc it was in here

http://ritholtz.com/2015/12/masters-in- ... vestments/
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Re: Interesting talk on capital preservation

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Jul 28, 2018 2:54 pm

pugchief wrote:
Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:24 pm
In a decade, all cars will be electric.
Will we be able to manufacture electric cars without fossil fuels? In any event, I think we'll need to really re-work our transportation system to work with electric cars. Long distance trips, for one.
Isn't it likely that other uses of fossil fuels will also be replaced with better, cleaner technology? So will we really run out? And will it even mater?
I am guessing no, it's not likely. I'd like to be wrong though.

Renewables are not that great overall in terms of pollution reduction/electricity production/cost reduction (see Green Illusions by Zehler for more information). Even nuclear isn't super sweet, when you factor in all the costs like building the plant, refining the uranium, cleaning up after accidents like Fukushima, and disposing of the spent material without it contaminating the area.

Think about how involved fossil fuels are in different stuff than just producing electricity, heating a house, or transportation-juice. Like smelting metals, creating products directly (asphalt, plastics, etc), and probably most importantly, utilizing the Haber-Bosch process to create fertilizer. The products made from fossil fuels have workarounds, but I think wrt smelting/fertilizer/whatever else I didn't think of off the cuff, you don't.
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