Gold is still in a 'bear super-cycle,' and it's got five more years of pain to go

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Ad Orientem
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Gold is still in a 'bear super-cycle,' and it's got five more years of pain to go

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:34 pm

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/27/gold-is ... fargo.html
Gold and silver have been trapped in a "bear super-cycle" since peaking in 2011, and they could stay there for another five years, according to Wells Fargo Investment Institute strategist John LaForge.

LaForge is bullish on neither but says investors who want to be in the precious metals should consider silver since it has relatively more upside potential and its fundamentals look better.

"We expect another five years or so of the bear, which means capped price rallies, and lots of sideways price action. Gold's range for the rest of the bear super-cycle we suspect will be close to $1,050 to $1,400," he wrote. Silver's range should be $13 to $22, he wrote in a note.

Gold futures were at $1,323 per ounce Friday, while silver futures were at $16.40 per ounce.

Gold peaked in 2011 at its all-time high of $1,900 per ounce, and silver was at a record $50 per ounce.

LaForge said silver should have more upside than gold since it is priced relatively cheaper. Gold is trading at about 76 times the price of silver, twice its historical average at 37 times...
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ochotona
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Re: Gold is still in a 'bear super-cycle,' and it's got five more years of pain to go

Post by ochotona » Fri Apr 27, 2018 9:05 pm

Well... if true, at least they're calling the end. But who knows.

My accumulation period ends in 7 years, 11 months. I could use another trip or two or three down to the $1050 area. It would be useful for tax loss harvesting.
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Re: Gold is still in a 'bear super-cycle,' and it's got five more years of pain to go

Post by Cortopassi » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:23 am

I guarantee there is not a single person in the world that can predict anything five years out related to gold, unless by sheer luck.
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Re: Gold is still in a 'bear super-cycle,' and it's got five more years of pain to go

Post by Ad Orientem » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:05 am

Cortopassi wrote:I guarantee there is not a single person in the world that can predict anything five years out related to gold, unless by sheer luck.
I am inclined to agree.
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Re: Gold is still in a 'bear super-cycle,' and it's got five more years of pain to go

Post by ochotona » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:09 am

For me, the death of the dollar play is going to take years to play out, if it happens. That's why gold is only 10% of my port, not 25%. But if it grows naturally to 25% because other assets get destroyed, I'll keep 25% as my new target.
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