Weekly managed portfolio with 3 month chart

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Someguy
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Weekly managed portfolio with 3 month chart

Post by Someguy » Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:45 pm

What do you think about this strategy?

You choose 4 funds:
- Global (or American or European...) stock index
- Inverse ETF for Global (or American or European...) stock index
- Long-term treasury fund
- Gold fund

100% of your variable portolio goes to the fund with the best performance in a 3 month chart. You check it every week.

You can do it less aggresive, with a 70/10/10/10 rebalancing.
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mathjak107
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Re: Weekly managed portfolio with 3 month chart

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:00 am

Someguy wrote:What do you think about this strategy?

You choose 4 funds:
- Global (or American or European...) stock index
- Inverse ETF for Global (or American or European...) stock index
- Long-term treasury fund
- Gold fund

100% of your variable portolio goes to the fund with the best performance in a 3 month chart. You check it every week.

You can do it less aggresive, with a 70/10/10/10 rebalancing.
my opinion is with more than 1000 point swings in a day ,trading by chart or moving averages are likely locking the barn after the horse ran away . the damage is done or that ship likely sailed by the time you adjust .

personally , if someone is conservative just get something like wellesly income and call it a day if mitigating short term dips matters .
.

if you are a long term investor, there is no financial logic to trying to mitigate temporary short term dips by permanently hurting long term performance .

if by definition we are long term investors , than the shorter term is of no consequence other than mentally perhaps for some .

but the reality is that there seems to be little correlation to more conservative models and staying the course because those in more conservative models tend to have less pucker factor so their "bad investor behavior " point is just that much lower and losing money is still losing money and so they react . balanced funds show no better success rate than growth funds when it comes to investor behavior . more conservative investors seem to just react to things and get spooked at lower pucker factor levels because they are gun shy in the first place . .

this is logic that is not apparent to many .
Don
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Re: Weekly managed portfolio with 3 month chart

Post by Don » Sat Feb 10, 2018 6:43 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Someguy wrote:What do you think about this strategy?

You choose 4 funds:
- Global (or American or European...) stock index
- Inverse ETF for Global (or American or European...) stock index
- Long-term treasury fund
- Gold fund

100% of your variable portolio goes to the fund with the best performance in a 3 month chart. You check it every week.

You can do it less aggresive, with a 70/10/10/10 rebalancing.
my opinion is with more than 1000 point swings in a day ,trading by chart or moving averages are likely locking the barn after the horse ran away . the damage is done or that ship likely sailed by the time you adjust .

personally , if someone is conservative just get something like wellesly income and call it a day if mitigating short term dips matters .
.

if you are a long term investor, there is no financial logic to trying to mitigate temporary short term dips by permanently hurting long term performance .

if by definition we are long term investors , than the shorter term is of no consequence other than mentally perhaps for some .

but the reality is that there seems to be little correlation to more conservative models and staying the course because those in more conservative models tend to have less pucker factor so their "bad investor behavior " point is just that much lower and losing money is still losing money and so they react . balanced funds show no better success rate than growth funds when it comes to investor behavior . more conservative investors seem to just react to things and get spooked at lower pucker factor levels because they are gun shy in the first place . .

this is logic that is not apparent to many .
At what age does one go from being a long term investor to a short term investor? Say your 61, retired with a pension and no debt. What exactly are you at that point?
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ochotona
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Re: Weekly managed portfolio with 3 month chart

Post by ochotona » Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:42 pm

You become a short term Investor the moment you have to draw from the portfolio.
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mathjak107
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Re: Weekly managed portfolio with 3 month chart

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:48 am

Retirees have been generating cash by rebalancing portfolios which is why shorter term money goes in to bonds and cash instruments .

But long term money especially in the accumulation stage certainly needs no mitigating . Even at 65 you have money that will not be used to eat for 25-30 years.

In fact using 100% equities in retirement with no bonds has actually performed just about as well as 50/50 has through 117 rolling 30 year periods to date .96% for 50/50 vs 94% for 100% equity .

The higher gains cushion the spending in down markets . In fact my very conservative income model which is 25% equities is down a bit more than my 60/40 growth and income portfolio . The gains left the growth and income model so much higher that even with the drop it is still at levels that are higher after all we fell .. My growth and income model is still positve for 2018. My income model is a bit negative by about 1% since it never devolps the cushion the more aggressive models had before they fell.

So no i don't advocate 100% equities in retirement but the reality is that too has always had a very high success rate because the drops are from levels you would never be at mitigating these temporary dips.

Our retirement set up is we keep about 10 years in an income model of 75% assorted bond funds but no long term bond fund

and 25% dividend equity fund . The rest is in a 60/40 model and about 10% of assets in a 100% equities s&p 500 fund

100% equities failed one cycle more than 50/50 did despite all the fear we have of having to spend down in down markets

But we tend to forget we are spending down from totally different levels when the drops hit.

Mentally there may be reasons a long term investor mitigates temporary dips but financially there has been no logic to it despite what we beileve in our heads
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ochotona
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Re: Weekly managed portfolio with 3 month chart

Post by ochotona » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:38 am

I think weekly trading with a three month look back is too frequent. Did you test it at portfoliovisualizer.com? Look under timing models, relative strength, put in your tickers, choose 1 asset to own.

5 min later -

I just tested it, but could only check 1x per month. The portfolio has a 33% drawdown starting Feb 1 2015, until Dec 1, 2016, and it has not recovered much at all during this last last bull market period since the 2016 election. I wouldn't do it, no way.

SH SWPPX VUSTX GLD
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mathjak107
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Re: Weekly managed portfolio with 3 month chart

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:21 am

We certainly agree on that. Betting heavily on the bad times when markets are up traditionally 2/3's of the time are betting against the house. Averages and charts are to slow in response today and are going to whipsaw you
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