Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
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- Ad Orientem
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Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
We are about to enter year nine of one of the hottest bull markets in history. We are also entering the longest period on record where the S&P 500 has not had a correction of 5% or more. In other words the stock market has been moving in a more or less straight line for quite a while. I am not a fan of market timing (as most of us would agree) but this is the VP forum where some speculation is allowed. To be clear I'm not to saying that it's over or that we are heading for a crash. The market may well continue in its current trajectory for some time yet. But I do think that it's time to take stock (no pun intended) and remember that greed can blind people, especially if we have been making a lot of money. What started as a smallish VP consisting of VTI and VEU has done quite well and decisively outperformed my HBPP. But my gut says we are now on the back end of the bull market and I think it's time to (borrowing one of Jim Cramer's lines) "ring the cash register" and take the profit. Last Friday I sold out my VP and put the money into VWIAX. Again I am going with my gut here, but I'm no longer comfortable with an all stock VP.
Am I being too cautious?
Am I being too cautious?
- Kriegsspiel
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
Benjamin Graham recommended between 25-75% stocks, depending on how you think they're looking, which seems pretty smart. I sold some stocks at the end of the year to buy real estate, but if the stock market experienced a massive crash I'd feel alright putting it back in instead.
US stocks look overvalued based on the Buffet Indicator (149.6%) and the Shiller PE (34.28).
Currently at 54% stocks overall.
US stocks look overvalued based on the Buffet Indicator (149.6%) and the Shiller PE (34.28).
Currently at 54% stocks overall.
- dualstow
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
I don't know, but I've got plenty of bonds in my vp and I am probably about 45% in stocks overall.Is the stock market getting too hot?
Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
50% stocks overall here
Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
25% here. Did a early (less than 35%) re balanced December of 2016 and 2017.
Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
I don't think we're done with this melt up. I haven't had any muggles asking me about stocks at all. We have plenty of room for increases.
I'm at 40.2% in stocks currently.
I'm at 40.2% in stocks currently.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
Consider this alternative:
1. Sell 50% of your VP.
2. Move those gains to your PP and distribute 1/3 each to gold/cash/ LTTs. (I am assuming your stocks in your PP have moved up as well.)
-You can still play your VP bet on stocks, just not as aggressively.
-You will sleep better with a larger PP.
1. Sell 50% of your VP.
2. Move those gains to your PP and distribute 1/3 each to gold/cash/ LTTs. (I am assuming your stocks in your PP have moved up as well.)
-You can still play your VP bet on stocks, just not as aggressively.
-You will sleep better with a larger PP.
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
I've trimmed back a little in stocks and moved it to cash to make myself more comfortable. Currently at about 38% in stocks overall.
Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
Currently at 15% thinking about going to 25%.
I think it would be helpful to share strategy signals that everyone here relies on in making their move.
The following graph of two ETF indexes from Vanguard: VWO and VTI for the last eight years. Tech analysts expect the long trend to go upward, possibly this year. If this takes place, then the emerging/developing markets will continue to lead the pack. This is just an opinion and does not call for action.
P.S.: The link to the image is https://ibb.co/d2Eb4R. Perhaps people can recommend a good place to store images to display on this forum.
I think it would be helpful to share strategy signals that everyone here relies on in making their move.
The following graph of two ETF indexes from Vanguard: VWO and VTI for the last eight years. Tech analysts expect the long trend to go upward, possibly this year. If this takes place, then the emerging/developing markets will continue to lead the pack. This is just an opinion and does not call for action.
P.S.: The link to the image is https://ibb.co/d2Eb4R. Perhaps people can recommend a good place to store images to display on this forum.
- dualstow
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
I don’ understand that graph. VTI had a share price of about 50 in March-April of 2010. Now it’s at 144.
What is the graph measuring?
What is the graph measuring?
Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
TinypicHappyMan wrote:Currently at 15% thinking about going to 25%.
I think it would be helpful to share strategy signals that everyone here relies on in making their move.
The following graph of two ETF indexes from Vanguard: VWO and VTI for the last eight years. Tech analysts expect the long trend to go upward, possibly this year. If this takes place, then the emerging/developing markets will continue to lead the pack. This is just an opinion and does not call for action.
P.S.: The link to the image is https://ibb.co/d2Eb4R. Perhaps people can recommend a good place to store images to display on this forum.
Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
I believe it's the price per share of VWO divided by the price per share of VTI to achieve a graph showing relative performance. As the number decreases, VTI is outperforming, and the opposite for VWO.dualstow wrote:I don’ understand that graph. VTI had a share price of about 50 in March-April of 2010. Now it’s at 144.
What is the graph measuring?
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
- dualstow
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
ahh, thank you.
Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
Thanks!ochotona wrote:
Tinypic
Well explained!eufo wrote:I believe it's the price per share of VWO divided by the price per share of VTI to achieve a graph showing relative performance. As the number decreases, VTI is outperforming, and the opposite for VWO.dualstow wrote:I don’ understand that graph. VTI had a share price of about 50 in March-April of 2010. Now it’s at 144.
What is the graph measuring?
- Ad Orientem
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
Suddenly I am feeling like a financial genius.
- dualstow
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
Well, people called Harry Browne a genius b/c of what happened after his Coming Devaluation book. He humbly said that it could have happened many years after publication, but that the lucky timing made him look smart.Ad Orientem wrote:Suddenly I am feeling like a financial genius.
- Ad Orientem
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
Indeed. And this was luck. If I had a nickel for every foolish thing I've done with money (mostly before discovering the PP) I could stop buying lottery tickets. Oh wait...dualstow wrote:Well, people called Harry Browne a genius b/c of what happened after his Coming Devaluation book. He humbly said that it could have happened many years after publication, but that the lucky timing made him look smart.Ad Orientem wrote:Suddenly I am feeling like a financial genius.
Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
So, what do you think will happen next?Ad Orientem wrote:Suddenly I am feeling like a financial genius.
- Ad Orientem
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
I have a high degree of confidence that the stock market will either go up... or down.HappyMan wrote:So, what do you think will happen next?Ad Orientem wrote:Suddenly I am feeling like a financial genius.
- Cortopassi
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
Ad Orientem wrote:I have a high degree of confidence that the stock market will either go up... or down.HappyMan wrote:So, what do you think will happen next?Ad Orientem wrote:Suddenly I am feeling like a financial genius.
Why we are in the PP!
Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
"It's Time To Be Alert!"
An article on zerohedge compares the current situation to that of 1929, when S&P saw a drawdown almost 50%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03- ... e-be-alert
An article on zerohedge compares the current situation to that of 1929, when S&P saw a drawdown almost 50%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03- ... e-be-alert
- Ad Orientem
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
Zero Hedge is a bit too fringy for my taste. But to each their own.
Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
OK, so how many people switched to the Golden Butterfly in the past year?
I have a feeling that a very good time to do that is going to be coming up sometime in the near future.
I have a feeling that a very good time to do that is going to be coming up sometime in the near future.
- buddtholomew
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
Can you elaborate?sophie wrote:OK, so how many people switched to the Golden Butterfly in the past year?
I have a feeling that a very good time to do that is going to be coming up sometime in the near future.
You expext SCV to decline in the near future?
Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
Today I finally got around to completing a portfolio rebalance I've been needing to do for a while. It had become a bit stock-heavy over the last few years, and I admit it feels nice to get back on center. While stocks have certainly been on a tear for a while, now I can confidently return to one of my favorite activities -- ignoring the markets.