Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by dualstow » Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:55 pm

ahh, thank you.
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by HappyMan » Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:02 am

ochotona wrote:
Tinypic
Thanks!
eufo wrote:
dualstow wrote:I don’ understand that graph. VTI had a share price of about 50 in March-April of 2010. Now it’s at 144. ???
What is the graph measuring?
I believe it's the price per share of VWO divided by the price per share of VTI to achieve a graph showing relative performance. As the number decreases, VTI is outperforming, and the opposite for VWO.
Well explained!
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:08 pm

Suddenly I am feeling like a financial genius.
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by dualstow » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:26 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:Suddenly I am feeling like a financial genius.
O0 Well, people called Harry Browne a genius b/c of what happened after his Coming Devaluation book. He humbly said that it could have happened many years after publication, but that the lucky timing made him look smart.
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:21 pm

dualstow wrote:
Ad Orientem wrote:Suddenly I am feeling like a financial genius.
O0 Well, people called Harry Browne a genius b/c of what happened after his Coming Devaluation book. He humbly said that it could have happened many years after publication, but that the lucky timing made him look smart.
Indeed. And this was luck. If I had a nickel for every foolish thing I've done with money (mostly before discovering the PP) I could stop buying lottery tickets. Oh wait...
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by HappyMan » Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:20 am

Ad Orientem wrote:Suddenly I am feeling like a financial genius.
So, what do you think will happen next?
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:32 am

HappyMan wrote:
Ad Orientem wrote:Suddenly I am feeling like a financial genius.
So, what do you think will happen next?
I have a high degree of confidence that the stock market will either go up... or down.
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:51 am

Ad Orientem wrote:
HappyMan wrote:
Ad Orientem wrote:Suddenly I am feeling like a financial genius.
So, what do you think will happen next?
I have a high degree of confidence that the stock market will either go up... or down.
:D

Why we are in the PP!
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by HappyMan » Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:06 pm

"It's Time To Be Alert!"

An article on zerohedge compares the current situation to that of 1929, when S&P saw a drawdown almost 50%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03- ... e-be-alert
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:24 am

Zero Hedge is a bit too fringy for my taste. But to each their own.
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by sophie » Sun Mar 25, 2018 8:14 pm

OK, so how many people switched to the Golden Butterfly in the past year?

I have a feeling that a very good time to do that is going to be coming up sometime in the near future.
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by buddtholomew » Sun Mar 25, 2018 8:26 pm

sophie wrote:OK, so how many people switched to the Golden Butterfly in the past year?

I have a feeling that a very good time to do that is going to be coming up sometime in the near future.
Can you elaborate?
You expext SCV to decline in the near future?
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by Tyler » Mon Mar 26, 2018 1:53 pm

Today I finally got around to completing a portfolio rebalance I've been needing to do for a while. It had become a bit stock-heavy over the last few years, and I admit it feels nice to get back on center. While stocks have certainly been on a tear for a while, now I can confidently return to one of my favorite activities -- ignoring the markets. ;)
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by barrett » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:05 pm

sophie wrote:OK, so how many people switched to the Golden Butterfly in the past year?

I have a feeling that a very good time to do that is going to be coming up sometime in the near future.
I've gone that way in my retirement accounts. I had sort of a 30/30/30/10 mix but stocks have gone up so much that I was close to 40/25/25/10. Because I want to do some Roth conversions in the coming years, the higher cash allocation will allow me to pull from cash for a couple or three years without having to sell other assets when they are down. I just don't really love 25% gold in a retirement account and am bond shy at the moment.

In taxable (due to my weird "savings bonds with lots of interest gains" issue) I'm foregoing long bonds but finally building up the physical gold. So, if one counts savings bonds as cash, I'll be at something like 30% stocks, 20% gold and 50% cash in that account. Just have to have a bunch of cash in the coming years to live off of and to pay some capital gains on an apartment sale. This is my Cash Butterfly Portfolio, aka the Golden Desert Supreme (hold the onions please).

And in reference to Tyler's last post, the above helps me to spend more time ignoring the markets. It may not be perfect but it seems to be the solution that gives me the fewest issues.

Sophie, please explain why you think a shift to the GB might be a good option. Thanks.
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by Xan » Mon Mar 26, 2018 9:19 pm

barrett wrote:Sophie, please explain why you think a shift to the GB might be a good option. Thanks.
If I were to guess, she's predicting that a stock correction (or worse) will happen soon, which would be a good time to make the PP->GB shift.
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by sophie » Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:38 am

Yes, it was a bit tongue in cheek. There's a lot of sentiment about an upcoming stock market correction, and I'm as vulnerable to that as anyone else.

I also figure that the moment I switch to a golden butterfly, the market will immediately go plunging down!
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:09 am

sophie wrote:Yes, it was a bit tongue in cheek. There's a lot of sentiment about an upcoming stock market correction, and I'm as vulnerable to that as anyone else.

I also figure that the moment I switch to a golden butterfly, the market will immediately go plunging down!
Now you sound like that dude budd.
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by sophie » Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:54 pm

We all have our Budd moments.

I just can't go through another event like 1999-2000 and 2008, where I lost a lot of ground due to being over-invested in stocks. I've noticed that over on Bogleheads, the sentiment is shifting from 60/40 being a good default portfolio to the ideal being 80/20. Just seems to be a sign that a big market correction is just around the corner.
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Mar 27, 2018 3:09 pm

sophie wrote:We all have our Budd moments.

I just can't go through another event like 1999-2000 and 2008, where I lost a lot of ground due to being over-invested in stocks. I've noticed that over on Bogleheads, the sentiment is shifting from 60/40 being a good default portfolio to the ideal being 80/20. Just seems to be a sign that a big market correction is just around the corner.
Corner being,,,, about now...
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by Tyler » Tue Mar 27, 2018 3:15 pm

sophie wrote:I've noticed that over on Bogleheads, the sentiment is shifting from 60/40 being a good default portfolio to the ideal being 80/20.
In my experience the Bogleheads are still relatively conservative. Having any bonds at all is passe in many financial circles these days, and I do think a lot of young people who started investing after 2009 are going to be in for a rough introduction to their own true risk tolerance pretty soon.

BTW, a prominent poster at Bogleheads recently pointed out how even Vanguard recommended portfolios have crept towards more risk lately. Prior to 2010 or so all of their target date funds included a notable allocation to short-term reserves (cash). But that asset class has mysteriously disappeared from their documentation during the recent stock run.
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:57 pm

The volatility is astounding in comparison to last year.
Only stability I see today is in SCV and REIT.
You taking the plunge @Sophie?
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by sophie » Thu Mar 29, 2018 8:39 am

Not yet, but what I might do is work gradually up to 40% stocks by buying them preferentially with new contributions, instead of shifting all at once.
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by ochotona » Thu Mar 29, 2018 6:43 pm

I am going the other way. Just lowered to 45%.
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by HappyMan » Sat May 12, 2018 4:27 am

Is the market getting hot again?

Gut feelings are welcome 8)
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Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

Post by ochotona » Sat May 12, 2018 5:49 am

I think it's just in a trading range frankly
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