i don't believe gold and long term bonds are the place to be for the last few years . i only post in the variable forum . the mods removed my ability to post in the other forums when i warned a year ago about hanging on to high positions in gold and long term bonds in rising rates . the equal weightings have anything but an equal chance of playing out , especially when rates rise and the economy is growing .stuper1 wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 9:57 pm mathjak107,
You don't believe in long bonds for times of deflation, and you don't believe in gold for inflation and uncorrelated diversification. I am curious, why do you like to read and post on this forum, which is set up around an investing strategy that believes in both of those things?
for 30 years i have always used a dynamic portfilio that changes as the big picture changes as well as my needs . deflation is sure not an issue and rising rates are a game changer . so at this point i have had no use for either.
the portfolio's i use have done very well , grew a lot of money over the years and have not been a problem . they range from 40 to 60% equities in retirement , currently 50%.prior to retiring i was always 100% equities .
prior to retiring i never saw the logic to mitigating temporary short term dips when you have a long term perspective , why permanently hurt long term returns to mitigate temporary short term dips . it never made sense to me until i needed more shorter term money in retirement .
there is no correlation that going with less equities keeps you in the game longer . those who opt for more conservative models are typically going to have lower bad behavior points and still exhibit the same bad investor behavior .
in fact you see in the pp forum all the time the high fiving and back slapping because they side stepped a dip in equities but those dips they missed are down to levels that are still way higher than they would be following a very conservative model .
it is like my 25% income model is still down about .75% ytd . the growth and income model i run which is 60/40 is up 3% and the 100% equity growth model up 6% . so yeah the growth model fell more but it fell from levels the income model would never have seen .