PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio

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Kbg
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Fri Feb 22, 2019 7:16 pm

I will never answer this question on a public board and anyone investing in 3x ETFs should definitely do their own due diligence which is why I won't answer this question. If you are investing in 3x ETFs and have not done personal due diligence then you should sell them until you do.
clacy
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by clacy » Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:31 pm

CME to launch Micro E-mini equity futures. This makes a futures based portfolio easier to swing due to matching notional values of contracts.

https://activetrader.cmegroup.com/micro ... relaunch_1
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:53 pm

2012-2018
UST/TQQQ/VGSH 70/20/10 (The Desertish Risk Parity bullet): 11.62/-14.33
VGSH/TQQQ/TMF/UGLD 50/25/12.5/12.5 (The PPish all-weather barbell): CAGR 11.92/-18.33

2019 Performance
Close on 12/31/18 through the close on 3/29/19

Bullet: 14.73%
Barbell: 15.49%
clacy
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by clacy » Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:33 am

On May 6th, the CME will be launching Micro E-mini futures contracts for S&P, Dow, Nasdaq and Russell 2000.

I think these will make holding a futures based PP (any type of portfolio really) much easier. They will be 1/10th the size of their standard Emini contracts.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Fri Apr 26, 2019 6:24 pm

I think I will be moving to them for my leveraged QQQ component. I'm not in a hurry and plan on watching their volume to see if they catch on. My take is you have the following +/-s.

+ Cheaper
+ Less capital required that you can put into STTs for a bit of interest

- Hassle factor of having to roll four times a year

+/- Tax consequences depending on your situation and account type
+ For taxable accounts I absolutely LOVE LOVE LOVE Section 1256 tax reporting. So much easier than stocks at tax time.

+/- Volatility decay...who knows. There will be far less of it, but one also has to realize they will not get the gains of a daily reset leveraged ETF in a good market, in fact they could get far less returns. Given that all of this is totally path dependent I think I would concentrate making a decision whether to replace leveraged ETFs with micro futures on the knowable aspects vs. the unknowable.

Good reminder...I need to bust out the pencil and get to figuring out what I will do.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Mon May 20, 2019 10:27 pm

2012-2018
UST/TQQQ/VGSH 70/20/10 (The Desertish Risk Parity bullet): 11.62/-14.33
VGSH/TQQQ/TMF/UGLD 50/25/12.5/12.5 (The PPish all-weather barbell): CAGR 11.92/-18.33

2019 Performance
Close on 12/31/18 through the close on 5/20/19

Bullet: 14.66%
Barbell: 14.64%
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:18 pm

TQQQ - POP! Holy Cow 9.6% today
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:16 pm

A joyous day! UGLD first time ever in the green.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:05 am

6/20/19

Bullet: 23.40%

Barbell: 26.50%

Seems like a good day for performance cherry picking. :-)
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