PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

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Kbg
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Sat Nov 07, 2020 5:58 am

Your data doesn’t extend back far enough and using monthly data and assuming it will be a good estimate for a DAILY reset 3xETF is extremely risky.

Just trust me on this one...269% leverage is not a good plan/idea (unless you you are good with blowing up your account)

Lesson 1 with backtesting. You are highly likely to see worse than is in the data.

Lesson 2. Never do anything that doesn’t survive in the data because it has actually happened.

269% leveraged doesn’t adhere to lesson 2.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by StrategyDriven » Sat Nov 07, 2020 1:40 pm

Kbg wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 5:58 am
Your data doesn’t extend back far enough and using monthly data and assuming it will be a good estimate for a DAILY reset 3xETF is extremely risky.

Just trust me on this one...269% leverage is not a good plan/idea (unless you you are good with blowing up your account)

Lesson 1 with backtesting. You are highly likely to see worse than is in the data.

Lesson 2. Never do anything that doesn’t survive in the data because it has actually happened.

269% leveraged doesn’t adhere to lesson 2.
It has been back tested 40 years with similar funds and I’m quite comfortable with how it back test and how it’s performed since I’ve been using it. I appreciate your thoughtfulness.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:55 pm

Oh good, so you are using daily data properly adjusted for 3xETFs. Rock on if you are good for those results during the 1970s.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Mark Leavy » Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:42 pm

Hey Kbg,
Just another thank you for your thoughtful perspective. I think I’ve got the dynamite in my portfolio properly firewalled, but now you have me running more ‘what ifs’.

Paranoia is a good thing.
Mark
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Sun Nov 08, 2020 5:54 am

Of course these things are a personal risk preference but for me 1.8x is as much as I will do. 2x is ok, north of 2.5 I think is nuts. The guys over on Boogleheads Hedgefundie’s Big Adventure thread mixes...completely nuts in my view. One can only assume they are younger and haven’t had their heads handed to them yet with enough money that it hurts.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by ozzy » Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:20 am

I swapped out my TMF for UBT to reduce bond leverage. Now my leveraged PP is: 40% UPRO, 30% UBT, 30% UGL. This puts me at approximately 2.3x leverage overall.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Mark Leavy » Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:44 am

I'm at about 25% each of TMF and TQQQ. 45% physical gold and 5% cash. (Plus a separate cash cache for 3 years living expenses).

Roughly, that looks like 1.5x leverage, but it feels more explosive than that. Probably because it is not as easy to "refill" TQQQ from physical gold when it craters. I have been pondering toning down the TQQQ over the next year or so by going:

About 15% TQQQ and 15% SAA, 25% TMF and the rest mostly physical gold with some cash.

Maybe I'll do that sooner, rather than later..
Mark
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by StrategyDriven » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:59 am

Kbg wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 5:58 am
Your data doesn’t extend back far enough and using monthly data and assuming it will be a good estimate for a DAILY reset 3xETF is extremely risky.

Just trust me on this one...269% leverage is not a good plan/idea (unless you you are good with blowing up your account)

Lesson 1 with backtesting. You are highly likely to see worse than is in the data.

Lesson 2. Never do anything that doesn’t survive in the data because it has actually happened.

269% leveraged doesn’t adhere to lesson 2.
You got me thinking about this more, and I decided to re-allocate what I had in what I call Perm+ Max to the 200% Perm+; the risk reward isn't really justified in the Perm+ Max version.

Thanks
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by modeljc » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:52 pm

Mark Leavy wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:44 am
I'm at about 25% each of TMF and TQQQ. 45% physical gold and 5% cash. (Plus a separate cash cache for 3 years living expenses).

Roughly, that looks like 1.5x leverage, but it feels more explosive than that. Probably because it is not as easy to "refill" TQQQ from physical gold when it craters. I have been pondering toning down the TQQQ over the next year or so by going:

About 15% TQQQ and 15% SAA, 25% TMF and the rest mostly physical gold with some cash.

Maybe I'll do that sooner, rather than later..
Mark
For ME, my leveraged trade is without the products that have decay and high expense ratios. I just don't trust them with BIG money. I like 15% cash for you and 40% QQQ and 45% physical. You push to about 11% but you look like you eat well and can also sleep well. This not big winner on a back test but it a may be with a forward look. I know you don't need my help and I just talking about what may work in the future. Also I want to join the party but at 83 I'm happy to just watch.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Mark Leavy » Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:37 pm

Hey, modeljc.

Very much appreciate your thoughts.

Whenever I see smart people think differently than I do, I wonder what I am missing.

You seem to be recommending a complete exit from bonds and relying on cash and gold to counterweight equity / tech volatility.

I’m intrigued.

You’re still in the game ;)

Mark
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:31 am

My latest tweak has been to add VXX...it’s pretty much like throwing money in the garbage can and burning it on a regular basis but it works when it’s needed.

Key point: the portfolio, not the stuff in the portfolio
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by StrategyDriven » Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:38 am

Kbg wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:31 am
My latest tweak has been to add VXX...it’s pretty much like throwing money in the garbage can and burning it on a regular basis but it works when it’s needed.

Key point: the portfolio, not the stuff in the portfolio
The problem with the VIX related ETF’s is that they really don’t move with the VIX with much alignment.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by modeljc » Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:32 pm

Mark Leavy wrote:
Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:37 pm
Hey, modeljc.

Very much appreciate your thoughts.

Whenever I see smart people think differently than I do, I wonder what I am missing.

You seem to be recommending a complete exit from bonds and relying on cash and gold to counterweight equity / tech volatility.

I’m intrigued.

You’re still in the game ;)

Mark
Not smart. Lucky maybe. Quit a job in 1971 at age 32 after a little luck finding oil in Dubai. Took my Golden days a little early. I'm lucky to still be in the game. Kids live next to me in NW Arkansas. Got to know my 8 grandchildren very well. But THANKS! I have about 9% in LTT's bonds and will push them if we get another chance with zero rates. Forces a old man to take more risk and for sure more volatility. So for me the way I ended up so far is 30 gold, 20% cash, 50% QQQ or simular. I do appreciate the exchange.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:56 am

StrategyDriven wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:38 am
Kbg wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:31 am
My latest tweak has been to add VXX...it’s pretty much like throwing money in the garbage can and burning it on a regular basis but it works when it’s needed.

Key point: the portfolio, not the stuff in the portfolio
The problem with the VIX related ETF’s is that they really don’t move with the VIX with much alignment.
I respectfully disagree as do the numbers. Now for sure the VIX move needs to be substantial and you have to be in at the beginning not after something starts. Other than that, see comment about garbage cans and money.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by StrategyDriven » Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:31 pm

Kbg wrote:
Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:56 am
StrategyDriven wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:38 am
Kbg wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:31 am
My latest tweak has been to add VXX...it’s pretty much like throwing money in the garbage can and burning it on a regular basis but it works when it’s needed.

Key point: the portfolio, not the stuff in the portfolio
The problem with the VIX related ETF’s is that they really don’t move with the VIX with much alignment.
I respectfully disagree as do the numbers. Now for sure the VIX move needs to be substantial and you have to be in at the beginning not after something starts. Other than that, see comment about garbage cans and money.
When I looked a few weeks ago, what I saw was: The VIX went up 44.2% this month, whereas VIXY/VXX only went up 6.5%. Correlated but amplitude isn't the same.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Sat Nov 14, 2020 8:25 am

StrategyDriven wrote:
Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:31 pm
Kbg wrote:
Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:56 am
StrategyDriven wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:38 am
Kbg wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:31 am
My latest tweak has been to add VXX...it’s pretty much like throwing money in the garbage can and burning it on a regular basis but it works when it’s needed.

Key point: the portfolio, not the stuff in the portfolio
The problem with the VIX related ETF’s is that they really don’t move with the VIX with much alignment.
I respectfully disagree as do the numbers. Now for sure the VIX move needs to be substantial and you have to be in at the beginning not after something starts. Other than that, see comment about garbage cans and money.
When I looked a few weeks ago, what I saw was: The VIX went up 44.2% this month, whereas VIXY/VXX only went up 6.5%. Correlated but amplitude isn't the same.
Ok, now I understand that you don’t understand how VIX related ETFs work. Not a problem, it took me several months of study to really get a grip on them. I’d stay away from them as well if I were you.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Thu Dec 31, 2020 3:13 pm

UST/TQQQ/VGSH 70/20/10 (The bullet)

VGSH/TQQQ/TMF/DGP 44/25/12.5/18.5 (The barbell) - Note the change from UGLD to DGP and the change in weighting of gold etfs and cash.

VGSH 35%, UST 30%, TQQQ 25%, DGP 5%, VIXY 5% (Newbie 1)

BND 70%, TQQQ 25%, VIXY 5% (Newbie 2)

A very good year for RP that's for sure, and I'm going to change the official portfolio again to a simple 70% BND/25% TQQQ/5% VIXY. This is a result of a lot of VIX ETF study. Here are the performance stats for the above portfolios for 2020 from 1/1/20 - 12/30/20. I'll report both with annual and quarterly rebalances. If one decides to include a long vol ETF in their trading I suggest taking a serious look on when to rebalance it (in 90% of the cases this ends up meaning buying more). It is a key component of this particular approach.

Bullet - 28.04/51.76%

Barbell - 40.25/62.45%

Newbie 1 - 35.76/66.20%

Newbie 2 - 32.34/60.02%

Personal - 38.6%

2020 by consensus is probably not a great one in most peoples' eyes, but from an investing perspective it was a very good one.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by ozzy » Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:30 am

Happy New Year all,

My leveraged PP returned 25.30% for year 2020. It consists of 40% UPRO, 30% UBT, 30% UGL. This equates to approximately 2.3x leveraged.
The URL below shows CAGR for the past 10 years is 19.27%. Rebalance yearly.


https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion3_1=40
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by TruDrew » Wed Jan 06, 2021 3:15 am

Hi guys! First time posting but have been reading this forum for about a year now. Read both Craig and HB's book. Also read Deslauriers' book," Investing Equanimity" which was a fun read.

Have any of you tried using options to build a leveraged PP? I see options as optimal because you are not subjected to the decay from leverage rebalancing in leveraged etfs even though you have to deal with theta and entering the trade at a desirable implied volatility. The way I would try to lessen the negative impacts of theta and IV would be to choose longer dated options (1 year or more for LT capital gains unless rebalancing is necessary) that are DITM.

To my understanding of leveraged etfs, you will make more as long as the underlyings trend due to leverage being rebalanced daily or monthly but lose more in a whipsaw price action environment.
Options will not experience the negative impacts in a whipsaw environment because leverage is not rebalanced until you sell, deltas will change accordingly, and DITM options have low gamma. If the underlying price gets close to OTM, you can just rebalance and recover what time/intrinsic value is left.

On another note, I have been thinking of using TAIL or VXX in a leveraged PP. I do like that VXX is not subjected to intermediate term bond risk but TAIL experiences less drag than VXX when VIX is in contango (which is the majority of the time). However, when VIX is in backwardation, VXX would experience positive carry making the hedge more palatable for me but one cannot easily switch from TAIL to VXX in times of high volatility because times of backwardation usually don't last as long and are followed by a drop in volatility.

Curious what your guys' thoughts are on the above.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by TruDrew » Wed Jan 06, 2021 3:33 am

Also with VXX or options on $VIX, you could potentially get rid of TLT and increase allocation to gold and stocks. I see LTT as protection from deflation and VXX could protect you in a deflationary environment if stocks and/or gold tank.

With people hating on LTTs so much, this alternative could be worth looking into.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by ozzy » Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:56 pm

TruDrew - welcome to the forum.

There's no doubt using options to build a leveraged PP would be much more efficient, albeit complex.

Yes, there can be serious negative decay with the ETFs at times. For example, my 2.3x leveraged PP (40% UPRO, 30% UBT, 30% UGL) returned 25.30% for year 2020. However, if it wasn't for the ETF decay and high expenses, I should have gotten a 42.56% return for year 2020.

In fact, year 2020 was the worst "negative decay" year since I started my leveraged PP about 6 years ago.

That said, roughly half the years have resulted in "positive decay". Meaning the leveraged ETFs actually produced higher returns than expected. So it works both ways.

If you go down the Options road, please chronicle your experience, the forum would love to know how it all works.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Mark Leavy » Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:37 am

Mark Leavy wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:44 am
I'm at about 25% each of TMF and TQQQ. 45% physical gold and 5% cash. (Plus a separate cash cache for 3 years living expenses).

Roughly, that looks like 1.5x leverage, but it feels more explosive than that. Probably because it is not as easy to "refill" TQQQ from physical gold when it craters.

<snip>
I've had a great runup this past year from the above holding, but it still feels too hot for me. On Monday, I'm taking it down to 15/15/30/40 TMF/TQQQ/Cash/Gold
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by TruDrew » Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:59 am

Kbg wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:31 am
My latest tweak has been to add VXX...it’s pretty much like throwing money in the garbage can and burning it on a regular basis but it works when it’s needed.

Key point: the portfolio, not the stuff in the portfolio
Another alternative to consider could be VIXM or VXZ. VIXM is an etf and VXZ is an etn but both experience less losses from contango because they utilize mid term futures instead of short term. Of course the trade of is that short term will increase more than mid term in a high volatility environment.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:03 pm

TruDrew wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:59 am
Kbg wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:31 am
My latest tweak has been to add VXX...it’s pretty much like throwing money in the garbage can and burning it on a regular basis but it works when it’s needed.

Key point: the portfolio, not the stuff in the portfolio
Another alternative to consider could be VIXM or VXZ. VIXM is an etf and VXZ is an etn but both experience less losses from contango because they utilize mid term futures instead of short term. Of course the trade of is that short term will increase more than mid term in a high volatility environment.
If you examine this closely you will find VIXM costs less CAGR than VIXY but provides less protection when the crap hits the fan and with VIXM portfolio volatility will be higher. Everything is a tradeoff.

My personal thoughts are that if you are going to throw money away the vast majority of time (which you are/will be) you want some good snap for your insurance dollars when you need it. A good self-education thing to do is go to portfoliovisualizer put in a stock etf, vixm and vixy in an allocation and then do the monthly report. Look for months where there are large stock market declines and compare vixm and vixy. Then look for minor stock decline months...you will get an understanding of what happens under the various possibilities.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by TruDrew » Tue Jan 26, 2021 8:23 pm

Kbg wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:03 pm
TruDrew wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:59 am
Kbg wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:31 am
My latest tweak has been to add VXX...it’s pretty much like throwing money in the garbage can and burning it on a regular basis but it works when it’s needed.

Key point: the portfolio, not the stuff in the portfolio
Another alternative to consider could be VIXM or VXZ. VIXM is an etf and VXZ is an etn but both experience less losses from contango because they utilize mid term futures instead of short term. Of course the trade of is that short term will increase more than mid term in a high volatility environment.
If you examine this closely you will find VIXM costs less CAGR than VIXY but provides less protection when the crap hits the fan and with VIXM portfolio volatility will be higher. Everything is a tradeoff.

My personal thoughts are that if you are going to throw money away the vast majority of time (which you are/will be) you want some good snap for your insurance dollars when you need it. A good self-education thing to do is go to portfoliovisualizer put in a stock etf, vixm and vixy in an allocation and then do the monthly report. Look for months where there are large stock market declines and compare vixm and vixy. Then look for minor stock decline months...you will get an understanding of what happens under the various possibilities.
I agree, VIXM does provide less pop than VIXY during periods of high volatility but costs less due to the nature of mid term vix futures and contango. I'm a fan of portfolio visualizer as well.

Do you implement VXX instead of VIXY for tax purposes? Since VXX is an ETN and VIXY is an ETF that has to be reported on a k-1. I've had vxx in the past and schwab included it in the 1099 so I was able to use this to offset other short term capital gains. However, I'm not sure how offsetting capital losses with stocks works with VIXY or VIXM since they're reported on a k-1.
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