PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio

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Kbg
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:17 am

Thus far 2020 is off to a great start...I’m ranging +6.5 to 9.2%
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:03 am

Still up 6%, that is all.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:40 am

Well today has been fun and insane. Who woulda thought, TMF +23% overnight? Spent a good chunk of the morning rebalancing out of long bonds.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by ILoveMoney » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:38 am

Thanks for the updates!
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by mdwilson1991 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:16 am

Kbg,

I'm confused by the many variations discussed over multiple years / threads.

What is your current allocation for a leveraged PP - and is it a fixed "non tactical" type?
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by blackomen » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:13 pm

Equal-weight SSO, UGL, and UBT. Since you're foregoing cash, it's technically a 2.66x leveraged PP.

I used this from 2014 until like late last month after the VIX jumped over 30 and switched back to the standard PP (SPY, GLD, TLT, and SHY.) I've endured further losses but it would have been much worse had I been leveraged,not to mention it'll keep me up at night. But hey, I made almost 40% last year with these levered ETFs so I'm not complaining. According to ETF Replay, such a levered portfolio exhibits similar volatility as holding 100% Spy.

FYI, levered ETFs exhibit decay over time so you'll want to rebalance this one frequently, maybe at least a couple of times a year. At least when you rebalance, you'll be buying low and thus actually using the ETF decay to your advantage as well.
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Kbg
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:25 pm

My personal mix is:

60 unleveraged bonds, 20 TQQQ, 10 TMF, 10 UGLD

Kinda like PP vs. a GB.

Personally I'd dial it/the mix into whatever you feel comfortable with and stick with it.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by var » Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:18 pm

Great stuff..

I sort of legged in to Levaraged PP.

I bought some UGLD and TMF. I didn't buy any 3X SPY because i thought the market was too high and weighted for a pullback.

So far so good.

I have been buy 3x SPY ETF as the market keeps dropping.


What are people using as rebalance bands for 3x PP? suggestions
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by var » Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:20 pm

I also noticed an tracking error with TLT and UBT today.

3.16.20
TLT +6.48%
UBT 9.94%
TMF +16.76
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:38 pm

I could not be more pleased at how this has performed.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by Kbg » Fri Jun 05, 2020 10:28 pm

My personal mix is:

60 unleveraged bonds, 20 TQQQ, 10 TMF, 10 UGLD

Through the close on 6/5/20:

By the book: 10.46%

Personal version that includes a little market timing on my part: 13.30%

Basically I didn't get why LTTs would spike as high and as hard as they did...made no rational sense. As soon as I saw how much they popped I rebalanced out of TMF very near the top on 3/9 into the other assets. Then I rebalanced into TQQQ on 4/3 and rebalanced out of TQQQ on 4/23 and again yesterday.

Of note, in one account I have been experimenting with MNQ and MGC micro futures in place of TQQQ and UGLD. I do not recommend it for those who are not really familiar with both futures and how your brokerage handles margin. It has been a bit tricky and definitely more work. Doable for those who know what they are doing, but to repeat, definitely more work calculating equivalent holdings required. Basically you need to understand your broker's margin and liquidation policies very well and you need a spreadsheet to calculate mixed positions for the same asset. For example one could simulate TQQQ with MNQ and TQQQ, QLD or QQQ. Each of the latter will impact overall account margin and required cash balances.

The jury is out for me on whether I will stick with it or not. I'm going to do it for the rest of this year and review at the end of the year.
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Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Post by ozzy » Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:01 pm

Houston, we have a problem. UGLD is being de-listed, see article here:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release ... 80971.html

This is a real bummer. I've owned UGLD since 2014 and made good money with it. I'm going to sell it and pay tax, then replace it with UGL (2x gold).

To bring ya'll up to speed, I've been running my own version of a leveraged PP, which consists of: 45% UPRO, 35% TMF, 20% UGLD, rebalanced yearly.

Now, I'm thinking my new version will be: 40% UPRO, 30% TMF, 30% UGL, rebalanced yearly. Its very similar performance, here's the comparison between the old and new versions:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion6_2=30
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