The year is 1900. What is your "permanent" portfolio?
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- blue_ruin17
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The year is 1900. What is your "permanent" portfolio?
The year is 1900: The West is stable, at peace, and is the utterly undisputed hegemonic power of the world. Seems like Europe has finally learned to co-exist and mutually reap the benefits of prosperity, maybe for good? "The Federal Reserve", what's that? Petroleum? Seems like it has some upside potential. East Asia? Frontier market, at best, uninvestable backwater at worst. Russia? Lots of room for explosive growth if only someone would push that damn Czar out...
But that's all speculation. You really have no idea what 1901 will actually hold in store, let alone, the rest of the century. No one can predict the future, afterall.
What does your asset allocation look like? What is your "permanent" portfolio?
But that's all speculation. You really have no idea what 1901 will actually hold in store, let alone, the rest of the century. No one can predict the future, afterall.
What does your asset allocation look like? What is your "permanent" portfolio?
STAT PERPETUS PORTFOLIO DUM VOLVITUR ORBIS
Amazon: Investing Equanimity: The Logic & Wisdom of the Permanent Portfolio
Amazon: Investing Equanimity: The Logic & Wisdom of the Permanent Portfolio
Re: The year is 1900. What is your "permanent" portfolio?
Hmmm. I think I would go with what has worked in the past.
Jim Rickards interviewed some "old money" in Europe recently and the answer was:
<snip>
We talk about the ‘old money’ in the U.S. , the 100 year money, and the ‘new money’. When you go to Europe, some of that money is 400 or 500 years old…and you say how did you survive the Thirty Years War, Napoleon and World War I etc. and they will say…
A third — a third — a third…
One third gold.
One third art.
One third land.
And a little cash to run your jet and your yacht” he jested.
“That’s how you preserve wealth for the long run.
If you want a short pop go buy some stocks.”
<snip>
Normally I just sit back in my residence and enjoy life !!
Jim Rickards interviewed some "old money" in Europe recently and the answer was:
<snip>
We talk about the ‘old money’ in the U.S. , the 100 year money, and the ‘new money’. When you go to Europe, some of that money is 400 or 500 years old…and you say how did you survive the Thirty Years War, Napoleon and World War I etc. and they will say…
A third — a third — a third…
One third gold.
One third art.
One third land.
And a little cash to run your jet and your yacht” he jested.
“That’s how you preserve wealth for the long run.
If you want a short pop go buy some stocks.”
<snip>
Normally I just sit back in my residence and enjoy life !!
- blue_ruin17
- Executive Member
- Posts: 153
- Joined: Sat Aug 13, 2016 11:16 pm
- Location: New Brunswick, Canada
Re: The year is 1900. What is your "permanent" portfolio?
Seems like a legacy portfolio for the uber-wealthy, though. I don't think you would recommend that allocation to the average investor.
STAT PERPETUS PORTFOLIO DUM VOLVITUR ORBIS
Amazon: Investing Equanimity: The Logic & Wisdom of the Permanent Portfolio
Amazon: Investing Equanimity: The Logic & Wisdom of the Permanent Portfolio
Re: The year is 1900. What is your "permanent" portfolio?
For the average person
1. Without the benefit of hindsight
Probably just a 50/50 stock bond portfolio as per Benjamin Grahams principles. No ETF's then so you would actually get to use the valuation methods in his book. I think almost all countries were on a pure gold standard then with the exception of China which was on a Silver Standard. Probably would have invested most in Britain which was the pre-eminent power at the turn of the century
2. With the benefit of hindsight (British stock market was closed for a few years and some countries went off the pure gold standard - from memory)
Mixed, major economic countries shareholding of 50% (using Grahams principles)
20% Physical Gold held in different Countries
10% Pound Sterling and USD paper notes
20% Longest term Government Bonds denominated in USD and British Pounds
Now I think there may be a few lessons there.......
What if the stock market is closed again, or the currencies are significantly devalued etc
1. Without the benefit of hindsight
Probably just a 50/50 stock bond portfolio as per Benjamin Grahams principles. No ETF's then so you would actually get to use the valuation methods in his book. I think almost all countries were on a pure gold standard then with the exception of China which was on a Silver Standard. Probably would have invested most in Britain which was the pre-eminent power at the turn of the century
2. With the benefit of hindsight (British stock market was closed for a few years and some countries went off the pure gold standard - from memory)
Mixed, major economic countries shareholding of 50% (using Grahams principles)
20% Physical Gold held in different Countries
10% Pound Sterling and USD paper notes
20% Longest term Government Bonds denominated in USD and British Pounds
Now I think there may be a few lessons there.......
What if the stock market is closed again, or the currencies are significantly devalued etc
- blue_ruin17
- Executive Member
- Posts: 153
- Joined: Sat Aug 13, 2016 11:16 pm
- Location: New Brunswick, Canada
Re: The year is 1900. What is your "permanent" portfolio?
I've never heard of the British stock market closing???
STAT PERPETUS PORTFOLIO DUM VOLVITUR ORBIS
Amazon: Investing Equanimity: The Logic & Wisdom of the Permanent Portfolio
Amazon: Investing Equanimity: The Logic & Wisdom of the Permanent Portfolio
- blue_ruin17
- Executive Member
- Posts: 153
- Joined: Sat Aug 13, 2016 11:16 pm
- Location: New Brunswick, Canada
Re: The year is 1900. What is your "permanent" portfolio?
Permanently bookmarked for future reference, thanks for that.
STAT PERPETUS PORTFOLIO DUM VOLVITUR ORBIS
Amazon: Investing Equanimity: The Logic & Wisdom of the Permanent Portfolio
Amazon: Investing Equanimity: The Logic & Wisdom of the Permanent Portfolio
- dualstow
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Re: The year is 1900. What is your "permanent" portfolio?
That's very interesting about the stock market closing. This thread has already paid for itself with that.
I think the precious metals portion of my permanent portfolio would include some silver, as it would predate the Hunt Bros' misadventures. I wouldn't know any better.
I think the precious metals portion of my permanent portfolio would include some silver, as it would predate the Hunt Bros' misadventures. I wouldn't know any better.
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Re: The year is 1900. What is your "permanent" portfolio?
Talmudic portfolio 1/3 business 1/3 land/real estate 1/3 gold
- Kriegsspiel
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Re: The year is 1900. What is your "permanent" portfolio?
When I think about what information and learning materials I'd have had available, I think I'd have been pretty close to a Talmudic portfolio too.
- Since there was no internet or index mutual funds (or... any mutual funds), I'd probably have invested in companies in the Dow, since I'd be able to see them in the newspaper.
- Money was gold, so that probably wouldn't have been a consideration, I'd have owned treasuries and savings bonds, and money in a bank like a normal person.
- Real estate is something you'd learn about in your locality, and without the regulations and financing of today would have been even easier to get started in.
- Since there was no internet or index mutual funds (or... any mutual funds), I'd probably have invested in companies in the Dow, since I'd be able to see them in the newspaper.
- Money was gold, so that probably wouldn't have been a consideration, I'd have owned treasuries and savings bonds, and money in a bank like a normal person.
- Real estate is something you'd learn about in your locality, and without the regulations and financing of today would have been even easier to get started in.