Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio

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escafandro
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by escafandro » Thu May 04, 2017 2:20 am

frugal wrote:
escafandro wrote:I do not know if it's better, but at least it's better for me.
Steal the percentages of MachineGhost who in turn steals the idea of Clive as he says.
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7920&hilit=clive+40 ... 12#p135697

30% Global Stocks
10% Global REIT
32% US Bonds
17% Gold
11% US Cash

Not too much gold not so little, same with cash, and with some REITs because I like them.
Hi,

Maybe it is interesting for a Variable Portfolio.

Another country, another COIN.

Do you have the track record link?

Thank you!
From portfoliovisualizer.com 1994-2017
CAGR 7.43
StDev 7.40
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mathjak107
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Re: Stocks, bonds, and gold have all returned 6.3% annualized over the last 10 years!

Post by mathjak107 » Fri May 12, 2017 2:40 am

i show for the most recent last 10 years with dividends reinvested as of may 1

the s&p 500 7.20%

nasdaq 10.40%

dow 7.40%

russell 2000 7.00%

small cap value 7.87%

the 10 years ending yesterday shows a total market fund up 7.21%.

as far as the pp goes :

gold up 5.77%

shy up 1.85%

TLT UP 6.69%

vti up 7.21%


that is 5.38% for the pp without rebalancing since rebalancing may or may not have made things worse depending on when done.

that compares to a total market funds 7.21% which really is not much different than the s&p 500 so if we included a mix of mid and small caps in proper allocation so they actually effect things the difference would be even greater as nasdaq and midcaps did better . .


so a diversified stock market investment holding more than the s&p 500 and including more stock segments did more than 6.30% over the most recent 10 years . likely 15-20% better with a mix of s&p 500, small cap value .

that is not bad considering that included some of the nastiest times for stocks and some of the best times for gold and bonds .

comparing things really amounts to picking the right time frame to highlight the segment you want .

starting 1 year later or earlier can make huge differences .

i mean if we go from 2000 to 2015 just treasury bonds did the best .

the problem is it means little to us over all .

because our balance grows over time hopefully , what happens in later time frames counts way more than in older time frames .

the greatest bull market in history , from 1987 to 2003 yielded almost 14% cagr returns for 17 years ..

but the time frame leading up to it sucked so not omly did we not have 401k's but most regular folks had very little invested when the good time came .

so the effect of the great returns on such little savings amounted to not much in comparison to the fact that today a mere 7% change represents 9 years of me maxing out my 401k at catch up in dollars .

so pulling out meaningless chunks of time and looking at charts really does not mean to much to us individually since it is all about the balance during that time frame picked and not the returns themselves .

the reverse is true when spending down . the worst group in history , those who retired in 1965/1966 also had the 17 year great bull market as part of it too. in fact the 30 year average return for them was quite respectable and normal once you included the great bull market .

their problem was that they spent so much down trying to keep pace the first 15 years of retirement that by the time the great bull came there was to little money left to save them even with those gains .

we were lucky in that a lot of our balance came from real estate sold from 2008 on so when we reinvested it in the markets it saw fabulous gains the last 9 years as markets tripled from the lows , even though at that point we were not 100% equities anymore . .

so don't be fooled by charts alone . it is the performance vs balance that matters to us most . what happens to us when our fuel tanks are full count the heaviest .
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by frugal » Fri May 12, 2017 3:07 pm

Your CapsLiock is broken :)

You keep only a PP?

Regards
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by mathjak107 » Fri May 12, 2017 3:30 pm

i have diabetic neropathy in my finger tips which is very painful so i can only type with one finger left handed . there is no way i can or will use a cap key .

no i am not currently a pp user . i use more conventional model portfolio's . at times i will use the golden butterfly if i feel it warranted but only on an as wanted basis .
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by Libertarian666 » Sun May 14, 2017 9:12 am

mathjak107 wrote:i have diabetic neropathy in my finger tips which is very painful so i can only type with one finger left handed . there is no way i can or will use a cap key .

no i am not currently a pp user . i use more conventional model portfolio's . at times i will use the golden butterfly if i feel it warranted but only on an as wanted basis .
Have you tried a dictation program? A number of years ago I was nearly crippled with carpal-tunnel syndrome and Naturally Speaking saved my ability to work.
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by mathjak107 » Sun May 14, 2017 12:38 pm

never felt the need to . except for use of the cap key , i got the fastest 1 finger around .
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by dualstow » Sun May 14, 2017 2:31 pm

mathjak107 wrote:never felt the need to . except for use of the cap key , i got the fastest 1 finger around .
You type a lot for someone down to one finger, not bad.
I hope you at least make use of shortcuts, i.e. text expansion.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by mathjak107 » Mon May 15, 2017 4:28 am

i find i can type so fast now with the 1 finger . i really don't do anything different other than just not use caps .unless i have to .

it is funny how all my toes and with the one exceptional finger , everything else is so overly sensitive to touch .

it is just the tips that hurt . i weight lift and drum daily with no problem . but if anything hits the tips it feels like a bad sunburn being touched .

i run 5 miles every other day too with no problem . my sugar is at the higher end of normal and i am on no meds , just diet and exercise but i guess the nerves just do not get any better .
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by frugal » Sat May 20, 2017 12:48 am

hi

caps works with one finger

shift doesn't ...





GB and PP is almost the same


We need something really different from PP to make the difference.
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by mathjak107 » Sat May 20, 2017 2:41 am

i find it a pain in the butt to keep hitting the cap key on and off , if it bothers anyone that much there is always ignore or the typing forum .

GET OVER IT!
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by dualstow » Sat May 20, 2017 4:58 am

(off-topic post follows)

frugal, (Frugal? :-)) my guess is that m already has to hit control and function keys with the same finger -- no other choice, really -- so adding caps to that one-step, two-step probably becomes a real chore.

I can't believe I sat through typing class in the 80s only to be forced to hunt and peck on this ipad in the 2010s. I still remember how humiliating my one mistake was. It was on the test sentence, "The girl is sitting on the dock.". Notice how close the d and c are to each other.
I'm not making this up.

Let's just say, I crossed out the c with ink before the teacher got to it, and my guess us she changed the test after that. :blush:
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by Mr Vacuum » Sat May 20, 2017 8:37 am

Amen, dualstow. Text prediction and autocorrect make the glass screen bearable but only barely. Long live the keyboard.

It was always just there, but I learned to appreciate it after trying out the open source version of the software written for Stephen Hawking. The text prediction is excellent and overall interaction remarkable ​but still very limiting while sitting here with all my fingers ready to go. (Typing straight ahead is ok, but selection and cursor movement are brutal. Long live the mouse/touchpad, I should say.)

Mathjax must be the best one finger typist. Seeing paragraphs of thought flow down the page from that one finger is impressive.
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by mathjak107 » Sat May 20, 2017 2:51 pm

my wife says i have the fastest 1 finger she ever knew lol
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by dualstow » Sat May 20, 2017 3:37 pm

Hey, this is a family friendly forum here, pal ;-)
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by mathjak107 » Sat May 20, 2017 3:41 pm

i am just a fast typist . no dirty minds in this forum .
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