Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

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frugal
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Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by frugal » Sat Apr 29, 2017 12:09 am

Hello,

I read a lot of questions, a lot of threads, asking about the quality of the PP.


Up to now, I couldn't find any better.

Haters and other friends:

Can you please tell me what other solutions (portfolios) are a good option?


Thank you for your answers!
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Apr 29, 2017 2:33 am

depends what your goals are . if it is gains and growing a lot more money the pp was not the place to be historically .

personally i think the gb is a better real world mix . but there are models that perform better if as usual things "are not different this time " than the gb if gains are your thing and are a long term investor . i would not have met goal to retire on just the pp .

so you need to define " better"
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by ochotona » Sat Apr 29, 2017 5:50 am

I don't think an all-or-nothing mindset helps you. Every portfolio performs differently. You can use the strengths of each to help you by in-filling the weaknesses of others. I think it's entirely a reasonable idea to think about blending the Permanent Portfolio with other strategies. That's called a "core-satellite" approach, or PP+VP.

I own US equities, International equities, cash, T-Bonds, gold, REITs. I'll bet if you drew the dotted lines carefully enough, you'd find the perfect little Permanent Portfolio in there somewhere, surrounded by peripheral "stuff". That other stuff I trade using Dual Momentum.

So I do have a PP in there, somewhere, though I don't think about it very much as a "thing" in and of itself. I just have all of the four PP components right now because I want each of them to do different things for me, I want them to play the roles they often play in inflation, deflation, prosperity, and contraction.

I do Core-Satellite because I think Dual Momentum can give me more growth before I retire, but I also want to ensure against inflation and maybe even currency problems (gold), I need a big slug of cash and bonds because I'm in an insecure industry and they comprise a YUUUGE emergency fund, and also I think stocks will go on a big sale in the next few years (don't ask me when).

I have every expectation at the end of my life I'll pretty much be left with a PP or something very close to it. Between now and then, the next 30-40 years hopefully, will be a time of transition and rolling-on and rolling-off Dual Momentum as conditions change.
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by AnotherSwede » Sat Apr 29, 2017 10:43 am

frugal wrote:Can you please tell me what other solutions (portfolios) are a good option?
I'll tell you why PP doesn't work, can't tell you what to do instead.

No bonds beyond 10Y in Sweden, and no mutual funds with duration > 3 years and without a lot of corporate bonds.

It is silly having cash to no interest while having a floating rate mortgage.

Gold has some local drawbacks and anyway maybe doesn't work as intended for non-reserve currencies.
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by stuper1 » Mon May 01, 2017 10:59 am

Frugal,

One big question you have to ask yourself is: how much time will you realistically be able to put into your portfolio management? How often are you really going to be able to check in on things and make changes if necessary? If you can commit to doing that say once a month, then you can probably get better returns than the PP with something like Dual Momentum. If, however, you are like me, and really can't commit to checking things more than every 6 months or one year, then you are probably better off with the PP or Golden Butterfly or something like that, depending on your risk tolerance and other goals.
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by escafandro » Mon May 01, 2017 6:42 pm

I do not know if it's better, but at least it's better for me.
Steal the percentages of MachineGhost who in turn steals the idea of Clive as he says.
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7920&hilit=clive+40 ... 12#p135697

30% Global Stocks
10% Global REIT
32% US Bonds
17% Gold
11% US Cash

Not too much gold not so little, same with cash, and with some REITs because I like them.
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by mathjak107 » Wed May 03, 2017 3:57 am

stuper1 wrote:Frugal,

One big question you have to ask yourself is: how much time will you realistically be able to put into your portfolio management? How often are you really going to be able to check in on things and make changes if necessary? If you can commit to doing that say once a month, then you can probably get better returns than the PP with something like Dual Momentum. If, however, you are like me, and really can't commit to checking things more than every 6 months or one year, then you are probably better off with the PP or Golden Butterfly or something like that, depending on your risk tolerance and other goals.
i used a fidelity fund oriented newsletter for 30 years . i could put portfolio's together in my sleep but i much prefer the newsletter .

for one thing i never have to 2nd guess my last move or plan the next and i like having a portfolio that is dynamic and changes over time to better fit the changes in the bigger picture .

so i spent about 30 seconds a week on actual mgmt . i read an update every friday .

it is also simple for my wife to do without me involved if i am plant food .

as far as results , the growth model i use has returned 11% a year average cagr for more than 30 years , a total market fund returned closer to 10% so that difference is about 30% in balance with less volatility at times so staying dynamic can certainly pay off .

while i still run that growth model for my money i won't need to eat with in the next 12 -30 plus years i do run a growth and income model for eating in 6-11 years and an income model for current income . but using the newsletter makes it literally a few second thing running 3 opimized portfolio's for 3 different time frames and purpose.

one of the problems not using specialized guidance that really knows what is contained in what you use is that overlap between funds can be bad . you can buy even index funds and have so many over lapping issues without realizing it because many index funds use different indexes that take in the same identical holdings even though you thought you were buying a large cap-midcap smallcap index.

fidelity maintains a central core fund that their less experienced managers have to pick stocks from . these have been approved by the analysts .

so you can put together a bunch of funds that seem different and end up with FANG in all of them if you do not know current major holdings and those are not updated all that frequently in morningstar and other places that track composition .

you can buy what seems like a nice index combo from vanguard using a s&p 500 fund , a mid cap and small cap fund and have very bad over lap in holdings .

the trinity as it is called VOO -VO -VB is so popular yet the index's mesh terribly .

there is so much overlap .

on the other hand using i-shares IVV IJH IJR has zero overlapping holdings .

so it helps to have a source who tracks what goes on in what you buy even if you buy index funds ..

whatever you do, sticking to the plan will account for most of your outcome . any plan can work if you have the fortitude to follow it through.

even retiree's in 100% equities and spending down in good and bad times have had a very very high success rate over 115 rolling 30 year periods so a lot of what we believe about high equity positions is hog wash and myth circulated by other misinformed people .

it does not mean mentally we can take that volatility , but mental reasons are very different from financial reasons for not doing something.

i couldn't take the volatility of such high equity positions in retirement . but the lack of drag from cash and bonds on those high equity positions in the up markets would have provided a much larger cushion that weathered down turns with not much problem at all .

in fact having cash buffers for spending in down markets has actually reduced your income and balance far more often than added any value , yet we all do it , self included . but i keep 1 years spending money in cash instruments and use the income model portfolio to provide income and refill that 1 year every jan 1st .

this is our 3rd year in retirement spending down , and now our balance is higher than when we started . despite spending down for 2-1/2 years our balance is the highest ever as of last night . so now we don't hold 2 years cash anymore liquid just the current year's spending in laddered cd's . .
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by tim47 » Wed May 03, 2017 1:21 pm

I am also in retirement, Using GB as basic allocation model. Wondering which Fidelity newsletters you might suggest to augment this..... thanks in advance...
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by mathjak107 » Wed May 03, 2017 1:45 pm

i have been using fidelity insight for 30 years
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by technovelist » Wed May 03, 2017 6:14 pm

It's very simple. Just own things that go up rapidly, and skip everything else. Win!
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by frugal » Thu May 04, 2017 12:13 am

stuper1 wrote:Frugal,

One big question you have to ask yourself is: how much time will you realistically be able to put into your portfolio management? How often are you really going to be able to check in on things and make changes if necessary? If you can commit to doing that say once a month, then you can probably get better returns than the PP with something like Dual Momentum. If, however, you are like me, and really can't commit to checking things more than every 6 months or one year, then you are probably better off with the PP or Golden Butterfly or something like that, depending on your risk tolerance and other goals.
Hello,

is that a portfolio with good track record?

I don't think it is a question of time. It is a question of returns %.

I tried several years for active trading and it is tough...
:-\
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Re: Better Portfolio than Permanent Portfolio is ###### *******

Post by frugal » Thu May 04, 2017 12:16 am

escafandro wrote:I do not know if it's better, but at least it's better for me.
Steal the percentages of MachineGhost who in turn steals the idea of Clive as he says.
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7920&hilit=clive+40 ... 12#p135697

30% Global Stocks
10% Global REIT
32% US Bonds
17% Gold
11% US Cash

Not too much gold not so little, same with cash, and with some REITs because I like them.
Hi,

Maybe it is interesting for a Variable Portfolio.

Another country, another COIN.

Do you have the track record link?

Thank you!
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