Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

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ochotona
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:24 pm

I'm already thinking about getting back into equities.. I would not jump the signals, but I'm just getting psyched... but it could be a while. Congratulations to all, you've all done well in your own practices.

Those Bogleheads are a pretty dour crew. They're like the Puritans of Massachusetts Bay Colony.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:27 pm

Ha! They are. Which makes you Black Philip. O0 Live deliciously, Ocho. Live deliciously.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by shekels » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:51 pm

ochotona wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:24 pm
I'm already thinking about getting back into equities.. I would not jump the signals, but I'm just getting psyched... but it could be a while. Congratulations to all, you've all done well in your own practices.

Those Bogleheads are a pretty dour crew. They're like the Puritans of Massachusetts Bay Colony.
Good for you getting out while the time was right..
I have been looking over the site you posted and it is very interesting to add an additional layer.
A lot of opinions out there in the investing world and most are just wrong at the timing.
I like it and will be tailoring it a little for me.
I am holding off on stocks though I think this thing could drop further maybe 20 percent more in a short time.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
SPX < 1800
Gold < 1300
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Vil
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Vil » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:13 am

ochotona wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:24 pm
I'm already thinking about getting back into equities.. I would not jump the signals, but I'm just getting psyched... but it could be a while.
There were several support (then resistance) levels passed and many guys are now filling the web with their predictions that if S&P cuts 2300 there is no reason to receive any positive signal from anyone. Of course technical charting is BS, given what we are experiencing too. IMHO, one have to be quite an optimist to think we've reached anywhere near bottom... Yesterday, Italy announced it will halt all of its non-strategic production (i.e. shutting down maybe 80-90% of factories). Unfortunately, it might be that we see this type of production halts in other places around the globe. So, no (or greatly reduced) production -> stocks plummet, that's my overly simplified logic.

Personally, outside my hardcore PP, I do not own any single piece of long stock right now (exited 25-26-27 Feb, can't recall exactly) ..
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ochotona
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:17 pm

From my GEM blog -

The GEM will be in bonds on April 1, 2020, unless the S&P 500 can increase 23% by then. That doesn't seem likely, what with the increasing exponentially increasing numbers of sick in the USA and around the world. If it happens, I'll tell you.

Take stock of where you are. If you've been taken down by natural processes from a 60/40 portfolio to a 40/60, maybe you could consider just holding on at that level, especially if you're young and have decades before you need the money. Maybe if you were 100% equities, and now you're 70%, maybe sell some so you get down below 50%. Sell down to your personal "sleep at night" level.

Keep some perspective - If you've been invested since 2009, when the S&P 500 bottomed at "666" eleven years ago, even at the close on Friday 3/20/2020 you've had a 322% total gain. Take your loot and be thankful!

Another thing you can do now... don't rebalance your portfolio yet, turn off automatic dividend reinvestment, pay them out as cash. Put all new 401(k) or IRA payroll deduction money to bonds or cash. Then, when GEM goes risk-on again, rebalance your portfolio at that moment, after the crisis passes and we're back to growth.

I've been as shocked as anyone at how poorly totally safe-haven bonds like Intermediate U.S. Treasuries (IEI) have done in the short term. I've been told that it has been forced redemptions by large hedge funds blowing up. I've taken hits on those, also Aggregate Bonds (AGG, SCHZ), and Municipals (MUB). Even gold (GLD) has been hit by forced redemptions. "WT...?" I've been tempted to go to cash, but have resisted the urge.

Putting in another commercial for Paul Novell (and he doesn't pay me), Economic Pulse got me out on 2/28/2020. GEM is slower. Frankly, the $35 per month I pay for the newsletter is almost the best money I have ever spent, second only to the engagement ring for me wife.

One of the voices is listen to is John Hussman, and he thinks fair value on the S&P 500 is 1100-ish. For a long while, he's been predicting a market crack-up, and it finally took a pandemic "pin" to pop the bubble. If that's so, we have a long way to fall yet. And he thinks losing 2/3 would not be an extreme loss, it could overshoot on the downside. Tavi Costa at Crescat Capital says very similar things. Lance Roberts says look for a sucker rally, then more declines.

Remember - the difference between an 80% loss and a 90% loss is not 10%. It's taking an 80% loss, and then ANOTHER 50% loss on top of that! The mathematics of loss. Both people start with 100 beans, one is left with 20, the other 10. The one with 10 has half of the number of beans as the one with 20. Right?

Most of all, protect your health. That you can't buy with money. Don't go out. Get groceries delivered or use curbside pick-up. Suffer through home haircuts. Brush your teeth and floss, and skip the dentist for now. The optometrist can wait. Chiropractor can wait.

I think in 2021 we're back to growth, after a vaccine is out. I think 2020 is a lost cause. Whether US or International equities... who knows? GEM will decide.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by HappyMan » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:05 pm

Ochotona,

Well said!

Did not know you work as a psychologist part-time. ;-)
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ochotona
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:45 pm

Can I haz this for Xmas? Please? The early 1933 to early 1937 run? Almost tripled in four years using moving average trading, and that does not include dividends. More than tripled with dividends. Doubled in two years. If I double from where I am now, I will retire. Absolutely, positively.

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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by dualstow » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:42 pm

What % do you have in stocks, Ocho?
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ochotona
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:54 pm

dualstow wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:42 pm
What % do you have in stocks, Ocho?
Zero % net.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:59 pm

What does "net" mean there? That you do own some still?
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ochotona
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:55 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:59 pm
What does "net" mean there? That you do own some still?
My wife has stocks at TIAA. I don't touch that. I bought an equal amount of TAIL ETF to protect her. So net zero. Long and short.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:58 pm

The GEM portfolio is in Bonds for April 2020 (AGG, BND, SCHZ).

And by now I can confirm that Paul Novell's SPY-COMP model got out of equities a month ago, on 2/28/2020. It's faster out, faster in.
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