Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

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HappyMan
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by HappyMan » Fri Jun 21, 2019 4:37 pm

Kbg wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:52 am
I think we all have to be cognizant of the fact that as soon as something gets turned into an investable product it becomes a mechanism for bringing efficiency to that element of the market. It will be interesting to see how it works going forward. The longer I’m around this stuff the more I become impressed with the S&P 500. Ultimately it’s a momentum fight amongst America’s most successful companies...that’s been a good combo and hard to beat.
Do you simply buy and hold s&p? Buy at dips, minus 10% and lower?
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Kbg
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Kbg » Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:41 pm

My personal 25% (leveraged) is the Nasdaq 100. Mainly I just rebalance when I think it is a good time to rebalance. I have a BUNCH of indicators that are all automated in their production. My basic process is...do I need to rebalance based on bands. If the answer is yes, then I start a bit of market timing to time the rebalance. Every once in awhile I get a screaming buy or sell signal and if there is anything to rebalance then I will rebalance. For example if my mix was at 30, 26, 24, 20 I may look at the left or right end if there is an applicable signal. If there was a signal on the two in the middle I'm doing nothing. With 3x ETFs you can get a lot of movement very quickly. If I was unleveraged I'd probably just band rebalance.

All the above is an example of my basic methodology, not the specifics.
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ochotona
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:16 pm

On a 3 6 12 month basis, Canada is outperforming the USA. I like Canada. I need to buy some EWC on July 1 when I trade.

EWC 10.19%
SPY 9.61%
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Fri Jun 28, 2019 4:58 pm

The GEM portfolio is in US Equities for July 2019 (SPY, IVV, VOO, SCHX).

Having said that, I am doubting the ability of the 12-month lookback to perform accurately past the end of September, due to the extreme volatility of Q4 2019. This is a bad feature of this particular simple way to calculate momentum. It could very well post a "BUY" signal for late 2019 / early 2020 simply due to the trough in the stock market in late 2018 / early 2019.

I find that an 18 month simple moving average has similar results to the 12-month lookback, so I'll be reporting that from now on.

I'll still be comparing S&P 500 stocks vs. ACWI ex-US (I'll use the CWI ETF, it outperforms VEU) using the 12-month lookback to find out which to invest in, I just won't use the 12-month lookback to go risk-on / risk-off.

{FYI - I'm not using the above. I'm following the Economic Pulse model, which I can't disclose, but I don't want to leave readers in the lurch}
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Mon Jul 01, 2019 5:19 pm

Paul Novell was on Meb Faber's podcast recently.

https://mebfaber.com/2019/07/01/the-bes ... dels-fail/
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