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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:19 pm
by ochotona
Fantastic trendfollowing podcast by Meb Faber and his guest -

https://mebfaber.com/2019/02/27/episode ... pt-or-die/

Marty summarizes all of the difficulties this strategy has had in 2018, and puts them in perspective. My biggest take-away is there are periods of time, like 2018, when the volatility is go huge that trendfollowing just doesn't work. So if you know it's not going to anymore why do it? It will come back eventually.

Exactly what has been top of my mind. So the what do you do? Maybe something to do is basically do what the HBPP does... no bets on the future... go to a 25% equity position and hold there until the lookbacks aren't so whacked up by past volatility. You get to participate some, maybe only 1/2 or 1/3 what you'd normally do, but some. And then you only take 1/4 the hit if you really get whacked again, compared to the 100% trend portfolio. He did say he thought trends were starting to re-establish lately, but the very large volatility events in a sigle year basically wrecked every trendfollower in the industry.

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:09 pm
by ochotona
GEM is back into S&P 500 US Stocks for March 2019

https://investingforaliving.us/antonacc ... ortfolios/

I found some really pertinent and timely info in the Economic Pulse end of February newsletter which came out today, also at Investing for a Living, so I'm not using the GEM signals at this time.

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:08 am
by thisisallen
Seems that the machines are struggling to keep pace with the changes in momentum.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ow-failing

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:02 pm
by buddtholomew
ochotona wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:09 pm
GEM is back into S&P 500 US Stocks for March 2019

https://investingforaliving.us/antonacc ... ortfolios/

I found some really pertinent and timely info in the Economic Pulse end of February newsletter which came out today, also at Investing for a Living, so I'm not using the GEM signals at this time.
I thought it was me who didn’t understand..
Now that GEM got you out -20% and you have missed basically the entire recovery + 20%, GEM has you back in to the SP500. Glad you’re looking elsewhere because that’s 40% in my book.

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:09 pm
by ochotona
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:02 pm
ochotona wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:09 pm
GEM is back into S&P 500 US Stocks for March 2019

https://investingforaliving.us/antonacc ... ortfolios/

I found some really pertinent and timely info in the Economic Pulse end of February newsletter which came out today, also at Investing for a Living, so I'm not using the GEM signals at this time.
I thought it was me who didn’t understand..
Now that GEM got you out -20% and you have missed basically the entire recovery + 20%, GEM has you back in to the SP500. Glad you’re looking elsewhere because that’s 40% in my book.

I'd be foolish to judge the performance of GEM or SPY-COMP, DM-COMP based on the last trade. That would be utter folly. Say, aren't you saying the same kinds of things on another thread here? Don't you have more interesting places to be spending your time than here?

Check in with us after the next bear market. 70/30, GEM, SPY-COMP, DM-COMP, and HBPP are all listed here. Performance values going back to 1973 do not lie.

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 pm
by buddtholomew
ochotona wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:09 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:02 pm
ochotona wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:09 pm
GEM is back into S&P 500 US Stocks for March 2019

https://investingforaliving.us/antonacc ... ortfolios/

I found some really pertinent and timely info in the Economic Pulse end of February newsletter which came out today, also at Investing for a Living, so I'm not using the GEM signals at this time.
I thought it was me who didn’t understand..
Now that GEM got you out -20% and you have missed basically the entire recovery + 20%, GEM has you back in to the SP500. Glad you’re looking elsewhere because that’s 40% in my book.

I'd be foolish to judge the performance of GEM or SPY-COMP, DM-COMP based on the last trade. That would be utter folly. Say, aren't you saying the same kinds of things on another thread here? Don't you have more interesting places to be spending your time than here?

Check in with us after the next bear market. 70/30, GEM, SPY-COMP, DM-COMP, and HBPP are all listed here. Performance values going back to 1973 do not lie.
Just opening peoples eyes to the folly of all these investing strategies. I am checking in with you after the last bear market since you sat through it you should know. GEM nor the PP did crap.

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:17 pm
by ochotona
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 pm
Just opening peoples eyes to the folly of all these investing strategies. I am checking in with you after the last bear market since you sat through it you should know. GEM nor the PP did crap.
"the folly of all of these investing strategies" - so 70/30 is not an investing strategy? Taking your meds today, mate?

Every strategy has it's time in the sun. They shine most brightly at the end, when things are as good as they can be. If I had been in GEM since my early days of investing, I'd be retired by now, that's a fact. I found it after Antonacci's book came out.

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:21 pm
by buddtholomew
ochotona wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:17 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 pm
Just opening peoples eyes to the folly of all these investing strategies. I am checking in with you after the last bear market since you sat through it you should know. GEM nor the PP did crap.
"the folly of all of these investing strategies" - so 70/30 is not an investing strategy? Taking your meds today, mate?

Every strategy has it's time in the sun. They shine most brightly at the end, when things are as good as they can be. If I had been in GEM since my early days of investing, I'd be retired by now, that's a fact. I found it after Antonacci's book came out.
The fact is you lost 20% on the upside and 20% on the downside. I on the other hand did not. So you can evaluate your GEM all you want. 70/30 stocks/bonds is conventional, your guessing and hoping is an exercise in futility. Good luck to you and I hope you end up retiring.

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:09 am
by jhogue
Budd,

Rather than engage in an ad hominem argument, why don’t you tell us WHY you think that the PP has hit this stretch of underperformance? Do you think it is the result of unprecedented Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP)? Or perhaps something else?

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:57 pm
by buddtholomew
jhogue wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:09 am
Budd,

Rather than engage in an ad hominem argument, why don’t you tell us WHY you think that the PP has hit this stretch of underperformance? Do you think it is the result of unprecedented Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP)? Or perhaps something else?
I have not compared previous PP performance to the current decade and therefore don’t know whether it is under-performing, out-performing or on par with historical returns. What I have witnessed and posted about is the sell-off in Gold and LTT’s when the crisis doesn’t materialize. I have sold down these assets to cash as stocks rebounded in January and will buy into the equity decline with these funds when a pull-back occurs. What I will not do is stand idly by and watch gains in gold and treasuries evaporate. I no longer have faith that these assets will counteract any declines in stocks. If they do, it’s a bonus but I will be a buyer of equity during a decline. That I am sure of.

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:52 pm
by ochotona
I love the "ignore list" feature

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:05 pm
by buddtholomew
ochotona wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:52 pm
I love the "ignore list" feature
Xan, what’s this?
I apologize on the forum and this is the response.
I will take the high road here although every once of my being says otherwise.