Gyroscopic Investing

If you look at a chart of PTLC, you can see where it popped out of equities. Interesting. I wonder when VMOT goes... maybe end of month.

Here, they are 100% BND,

https://indexswingtrader.blogspot.com/p ... gnals.html

Sorry but GEM is still invested. There is an error in that sheet.

That's what I thought as well. Hmm, perhaps they've modified their formula?

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InsuranceGuy wrote: ↑Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:20 am That sheet is correct, I think you are just reading it wrong. It is saying that if December ended today that you would switch out to bonds.

If only there were a way to find out for sure ...

If December ends today, then we have bigger problems than worrying about which asset to be invested in.

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That's a very important point. Thank you for taking the time to research it.

InsuranceGuy wrote: ↑Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:14 pm

HappyMan wrote: ↑Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:52 am If only there were a way to find out for sure ...

With a little math we can confirm:

IVV closed Nov 30 at $278
IVV closed today at $266
MTD IVV return of -4.32% (266/278-1)

BND closed Nov 30 at $78.14 with $0.192 dividend, so $77.948 adjusted close
BND closed today at $78.64
MTD BND return of 0.89% (77.948/78.64-1)



They show a Dec 2018 return of 4.32% in the far right column which matches the IVV return implying GEM is still invested in IVV. If they were in BND their Dec return would instead be +0.89%.

The signal assumes the month ended today per their disclaimer (Signals only valid after Close of Month) which would imply a projected switch to BND at the end of Dec 2018.

Ohhhh OK
Partial month results. Not the signal for the month.

I can't wait to sell this binch on December 31

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InsuranceGuy wrote: ↑Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:22 pm

ochotona wrote: ↑Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:46 pm I can't wait to sell this binch on December 31

I'm just glad my model bailed at the end of November.

That's my price for having a less-twitchy model. Deeper draws.

With you, ochotona.

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Would be cool to continue comparing them. Keep 'em coming, IG.

I'm tweaking my dual mo stuff to the 12mo signal and a 6/3 mo weighted signal in 2019. 50% of the port to each signal. This is a small change to my current 10mo/5mo approach.

Kbg wrote: ↑Wed Dec 19, 2018 6:39 pm I'm tweaking my dual mo stuff to the 12mo signal and a 6/3 mo weighted signal in 2019. 50% of the port to each signal. This is a small change to my current 10mo/5mo approach.

Interesting. Expectant results?

HappyMan wrote: ↑Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:17 pm

Kbg wrote: ↑Wed Dec 19, 2018 6:39 pm I'm tweaking my dual mo stuff to the 12mo signal and a 6/3 mo weighted signal in 2019. 50% of the port to each signal. This is a small change to my current 10mo/5mo approach.

Interesting. Expectant results?

No idea. They both backtest well with the ST clocking the 12mo one by a good stretch in more recent years. However, the main thing for me is that the odds are better for longer term success as I'm going to get the average of whatever they end up doing in the future. It would be nice to know which one is going to be best for the next 15 years, but no one does. Additionally, the look back periods perform differently based on market type so there is some system diversification benefit. The LT is best for most of the ride during long term bull markets normally, while the ST is better for choppier markets and absolutely kills it coming out of bear bottoms.

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IG,

Definite downside to ST is taxes. You will have to explain the volatility filter application. Using a ST look back and volatility is kinda the whole point of going shorter...ie take advantage of shorter term movements.

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It truly sucks to get a sell signal when so deeply oversold. If we don't get a post-Christmas window dressing rally, I might not sell immediately on Dec 31 / Jan 1, I might wait for a bounce back towards 2600. I'm already only 40% equities so I'm not so deeply committed that I have to drop the hot potato.

I'll bet lots of tax loss harvest selling has taken place this year.

ochotona wrote: ↑Sat Dec 22, 2018 6:46 pm It truly sucks to get a sell signal when so deeply oversold. If we don't get a post-Christmas window dressing rally, I might not sell immediately on Dec 31 / Jan 1, I might wait for a bounce back towards 2600. I'm already only 40% equities so I'm not so deeply committed that I have to drop the hot potato.

I'll bet lots of tax loss harvest selling has taken place this year.

Takes some guts to recognize it. May follow your example. Keep it posted.

Pity of it was I was thinking about trading mid and end month, but laziness took over.