Gary makes a compelling defense. I just learned that Novell's model is already just about ready to go back to equities based on a weekly close above the 13 week EMA. That's way too quick for me. That's short-termism, whipsaw city. 200 day MA, ok... 13 week EMA? Huh?thisisallen wrote: ↑Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:03 pm This is Gary Anonacci’ rebuttal to the GEM analysis kink posted by Kbg previously in this thread
(https://blog.thinknewfound.com/2019/01/ ... entum-gem/)
https://www.dualmomentum.net/2019/01/wh ... m-gem.html
I like his compilation if economic data. But I wonder if I could just use the Ned Davis recession indicator (free for Schwab customers), or get the data myself for free, in combination with GEM, in order to trade GEM even less. We shall see, as a recession inevitably approaches someday.
Ned Davis and Novell are not signaling recession risk. Kind of makes the end of December equity exit look unnecessary. I could have used Ned Davis to sell down to 40% (their recent equity allocation) then just wait for a recession signal to confirm the momentum signal. At 40% equity you can tough out a correction. That's Golden Butterfly style.
Fewer good trades, not more. That's my goal.
But I like Novell's EM model. Reason enough to get Economic Pulse. Investors must have a way to play EM without getting crushed. Gary has EM in his proprietary model, but I'm not going to send my portfolio away out of my control and pay 1% to do so. I hate paying thousands I fees every quarter. It makes me ill.