modeljc wrote:ochotona wrote:If you simulate the GEM at PortfolioVisualizer.com, you can go back into the 1980s with old mutual funds, you can get a sense of the whippiness. Yes, Winter of 2015 - 2016 was frustrating, for sure. And GEM is much less whippy than 200 day moving average. But it does deliver over time.
Thanks. I be happy knowing the last 10 years. So 2015 is bad. How many wipsaws in that year? Do you know the last 10 years for the number of false trades? I am not lazy but I am 80 years old and do not trust myself. And I know someone has looked at this. Hoping to find a quick answer.
Thanks
Wow, you're an intellectually active octogenarian like my Mom! Congratulations. Honestly, when I'm 75 I hope to have all of this Momentum stuff packed away and automated. But, because you asked, here it is, for ONE mutual fund which I owned for many years in the 1990s when I had little children, the famous Schwab 1000 Fund, SNXFX. This is not "dual" momentum, just single absolute momentum for this one fund. so in 25 years you have 19 trades, or one trade every 1.3 years.But, some periods only last one month, or two, or three.
There is a trend-following ETF that does this,
VMOT from AlphaArchitect. I have gotten to know the people at that company somewhat, they seem very competent. The fund is somewhat expensive at 0.79% net expense ratio, it is untested through a downturn, but there is no reason to think it won't work as designed (trend-following triggers a switch to a downside protection scheme using options). It has been great in the bull market. It holds something like 160-200 different US and International stocks, so it's diversified as to industry, sector, country, currency. I don't know what to tell you. If I were you, and I thought the whole trading thing was getting to be too much, I'd take a chance and buy some, yes. The risk of missing an important trade is not something to dismiss, if you've decided momentum is what you want to do.
Maybe 25% VMOT, 25% S&P500, the rest your choice of bonds, gold, cash?
1 Jan 1993 Mar 1994 15 100.00% Schwab 1000 Index (SNXFX) SNXFX: 5.19% 5.19% 5.19%
2 Apr 1994 Apr 1994 1 100.00% Cash (CASHX) CASHX: 0.27% 0.27% 1.14%
3 May 1994 Jun 1994 2 100.00% Schwab 1000 Index (SNXFX) SNXFX: -1.53% -1.53% -1.53%
4 Jul 1994 Jul 1994 1 100.00% Cash (CASHX) CASHX: 0.28% 0.28% 3.21%
5 Aug 1994 Sep 1994 2 100.00% Schwab 1000 Index (SNXFX) SNXFX: 1.83% 1.83% 1.83%
6 Oct 1994 Feb 1995 5 100.00% Cash (CASHX) CASHX: 2.03% 2.03% 6.03%
7 Mar 1995 Nov 2000 69 100.00% Schwab 1000 Index (SNXFX) SNXFX: 186.87% 186.87% 186.87%
8 Dec 2000 Jul 2003 32 100.00% Cash (CASHX) CASHX: 6.74% 6.74% -20.21%
9 Aug 2003 Jan 2008 54 100.00% Schwab 1000 Index (SNXFX) SNXFX: 52.04% 52.04% 52.04%
10 Feb 2008 Oct 2009 21 100.00% Cash (CASHX) CASHX: 1.46% 1.46% -21.37%
11 Nov 2009 May 2012 31 100.00% Schwab 1000 Index (SNXFX) SNXFX: 33.59% 33.59% 33.59%
12 Jun 2012 Jun 2012 1 100.00% Cash (CASHX) CASHX: 0.00% 0.00% 3.82%
13 Jul 2012 Sep 2015 39 100.00% Schwab 1000 Index (SNXFX) SNXFX: 50.26% 50.26% 50.26%
14 Oct 2015 Oct 2015 1 100.00% Cash (CASHX) CASHX: 0.00% 0.00% 8.05%
15 Nov 2015 Jan 2016 3 100.00% Schwab 1000 Index (SNXFX) SNXFX: -6.81% -6.81% -6.81%
16 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 2 100.00% Cash (CASHX) CASHX: 0.04% 0.04% 6.74%
17 Apr 2016 Apr 2016 1 100.00% Schwab 1000 Index (SNXFX) SNXFX: 0.38% 0.38% 0.38%
18 May 2016 May 2016 1 100.00% Cash (CASHX) CASHX: 0.01% 0.01% 1.87%
19 Jun 2016 Dec 2017 19 100.00% Schwab 1000 Index (SNXFX) SNXFX: 31.45% 31.45% 31.45%
20 Jan 2018 Jan 2018 1 100.00% Schwab 1000 Index (SNXFX) -