Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

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buddtholomew
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:02 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:09 pm
GEM is back into S&P 500 US Stocks for March 2019

https://investingforaliving.us/antonacc ... ortfolios/

I found some really pertinent and timely info in the Economic Pulse end of February newsletter which came out today, also at Investing for a Living, so I'm not using the GEM signals at this time.
I thought it was me who didn’t understand..
Now that GEM got you out -20% and you have missed basically the entire recovery + 20%, GEM has you back in to the SP500. Glad you’re looking elsewhere because that’s 40% in my book.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:09 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:02 pm
ochotona wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:09 pm
GEM is back into S&P 500 US Stocks for March 2019

https://investingforaliving.us/antonacc ... ortfolios/

I found some really pertinent and timely info in the Economic Pulse end of February newsletter which came out today, also at Investing for a Living, so I'm not using the GEM signals at this time.
I thought it was me who didn’t understand..
Now that GEM got you out -20% and you have missed basically the entire recovery + 20%, GEM has you back in to the SP500. Glad you’re looking elsewhere because that’s 40% in my book.

I'd be foolish to judge the performance of GEM or SPY-COMP, DM-COMP based on the last trade. That would be utter folly. Say, aren't you saying the same kinds of things on another thread here? Don't you have more interesting places to be spending your time than here?

Check in with us after the next bear market. 70/30, GEM, SPY-COMP, DM-COMP, and HBPP are all listed here. Performance values going back to 1973 do not lie.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 pm

ochotona wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:09 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:02 pm
ochotona wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:09 pm
GEM is back into S&P 500 US Stocks for March 2019

https://investingforaliving.us/antonacc ... ortfolios/

I found some really pertinent and timely info in the Economic Pulse end of February newsletter which came out today, also at Investing for a Living, so I'm not using the GEM signals at this time.
I thought it was me who didn’t understand..
Now that GEM got you out -20% and you have missed basically the entire recovery + 20%, GEM has you back in to the SP500. Glad you’re looking elsewhere because that’s 40% in my book.

I'd be foolish to judge the performance of GEM or SPY-COMP, DM-COMP based on the last trade. That would be utter folly. Say, aren't you saying the same kinds of things on another thread here? Don't you have more interesting places to be spending your time than here?

Check in with us after the next bear market. 70/30, GEM, SPY-COMP, DM-COMP, and HBPP are all listed here. Performance values going back to 1973 do not lie.
Just opening peoples eyes to the folly of all these investing strategies. I am checking in with you after the last bear market since you sat through it you should know. GEM nor the PP did crap.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:17 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 pm
Just opening peoples eyes to the folly of all these investing strategies. I am checking in with you after the last bear market since you sat through it you should know. GEM nor the PP did crap.
"the folly of all of these investing strategies" - so 70/30 is not an investing strategy? Taking your meds today, mate?

Every strategy has it's time in the sun. They shine most brightly at the end, when things are as good as they can be. If I had been in GEM since my early days of investing, I'd be retired by now, that's a fact. I found it after Antonacci's book came out.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:21 pm

ochotona wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:17 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 pm
Just opening peoples eyes to the folly of all these investing strategies. I am checking in with you after the last bear market since you sat through it you should know. GEM nor the PP did crap.
"the folly of all of these investing strategies" - so 70/30 is not an investing strategy? Taking your meds today, mate?

Every strategy has it's time in the sun. They shine most brightly at the end, when things are as good as they can be. If I had been in GEM since my early days of investing, I'd be retired by now, that's a fact. I found it after Antonacci's book came out.
The fact is you lost 20% on the upside and 20% on the downside. I on the other hand did not. So you can evaluate your GEM all you want. 70/30 stocks/bonds is conventional, your guessing and hoping is an exercise in futility. Good luck to you and I hope you end up retiring.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by jhogue » Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:09 am

Budd,

Rather than engage in an ad hominem argument, why don’t you tell us WHY you think that the PP has hit this stretch of underperformance? Do you think it is the result of unprecedented Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP)? Or perhaps something else?
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:57 pm

jhogue wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:09 am
Budd,

Rather than engage in an ad hominem argument, why don’t you tell us WHY you think that the PP has hit this stretch of underperformance? Do you think it is the result of unprecedented Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP)? Or perhaps something else?
I have not compared previous PP performance to the current decade and therefore don’t know whether it is under-performing, out-performing or on par with historical returns. What I have witnessed and posted about is the sell-off in Gold and LTT’s when the crisis doesn’t materialize. I have sold down these assets to cash as stocks rebounded in January and will buy into the equity decline with these funds when a pull-back occurs. What I will not do is stand idly by and watch gains in gold and treasuries evaporate. I no longer have faith that these assets will counteract any declines in stocks. If they do, it’s a bonus but I will be a buyer of equity during a decline. That I am sure of.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:52 pm

I love the "ignore list" feature
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:05 pm

ochotona wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:52 pm
I love the "ignore list" feature
Xan, what’s this?
I apologize on the forum and this is the response.
I will take the high road here although every once of my being says otherwise.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Xan » Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:17 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:05 pm
ochotona wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:52 pm
I love the "ignore list" feature
Xan, what’s this?
I apologize on the forum and this is the response.
I will take the high road here although every once of my being says otherwise.
I appreciate the high road more than I can say.

But I really dislike being dragged into things like this. I don't really like being a moderator, but have been forced into it. If every thread turns into a referendum on your presence, Budd, then I'm afraid you're going to lose, just for practical reasons. So it's probably in your interest to keep that from happening.

I'll grant that ochotona's comment was not terribly polite, but it didn't really imply anything other than that he's heard what you have to say and doesn't need to hear it again.

There was another prolific poster here who got relegated to certain sections of the forum because he would turn every conversation into a debate about the same topic, over and over. As I recall, he understood, and continued to contribute in his allocated areas. (Haven't seen him lately, though, hope he's okay.) I really hope this doesn't come to that, but maybe it could be good for everyone?

Please keep on taking that high road, Budd. It'll keep getting easier: not only will practice help, but the less you react the calmer everyone else will get.

Now, back to your regularly scheduled "Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP" discussion!
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Kbg » Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:23 pm

Wow, folks are getting feisty on the board.

So how about some live trading data 100% for reals and all that.

I have 5 retirement accounts that trade DM with the an account relook once every five weeks. In other words, I don't trade them all by looking at the return stats on the last day of the month and hitting the trade button on all five accounts. My Excel XIRR returns at the end of 2018 were -7.32, -5.42, -4.36, - 0.91, +5.44%. That's an average of -2.54% and a 12% points range in outcomes! This means I beat a 100% buy and hold of the SPY by a little under 2% points. Thus far in 2019 I have a range of .29 to 2.64 for and average of +1.81% and I am behind the SPY by a little over 6% points.

A couple of points here...

1. Nothing remotely close to a 40% loss.
2. Picking the peak, the bottom and "today" to derive the DD and rebound stats is irrelevant unless you bought at the peak, sold at the bottom and sold again "today". The only thing that matters is what your system timing signals were and what you actually did with those signals. All that motion in between is known as noise.
3. What happened for my systems was they started rotating out late October and I was pretty much out by the end of November and then they started rotating back in mid-Feb.
4. All one should ever expect from a trend system like DM are the following things.
a. To lose slightly if not significantly to the US market when the US market is dominant
b. To beat the US market significantly during a serious draw down via cutting some of the left tail off
c. To beat the US market when foreign markets are dominant
d. To win or lose slightly to significantly if nothing is trending well (totally depends on whipsaw severity or random timing luck)
e. Hmmm...there's a lot of time when you can expect NOT to beat the US market

Now I've posted on this next item either in this thread or elsewhere, but when it comes to my own money I do my home work which involves data procurement and software code writing for investment systems of interest (or borrowing and adapting). My personal opinion is that if you are going to trade something similar to DM you need to diversify both in terms of trading dates and lookback lengths. There is a million ways you can diversify, but it's obvious in the data you should diversify and most professionally managed trend systems diversify.

If you spend enough time doing your own number crunching and backtesting you come to realize that what "works" in terms of specific parameters is never stationary, you really want to see something that is at least statistically sound and has a good theoretical basis for working. You give up all hope of thinking you have a clue as to what the performance is going to be in the future and inevitably it is lower than whatever you backtested. You come to realize that the most significant thing going forward is whatever future market performance is going to be and none of us know that. After that, you simply seek to understand how a system is going to perform in various market conditions and your actual results are going to be whatever the market gods have in store for us.

One could have serious debate as to whether a young person should do something like DM or just buy and hold some allocation. You can make a great case for either and the right answer is whatever a person would stick to. Once you get older and have to worry about draw downs and withdrawal sequence, I think the scale tips in favor of something (anything) that reliably cuts the left tail movements. There are various ways to mitigate left tails and momentum happens to be a pretty option if that is a feature you need or want.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:21 am

Xan wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:17 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:05 pm
ochotona wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:52 pm
I love the "ignore list" feature
Xan, what’s this?
I apologize on the forum and this is the response.
I will take the high road here although every once of my being says otherwise.
I appreciate the high road more than I can say.

But I really dislike being dragged into things like this. I don't really like being a moderator, but have been forced into it. If every thread turns into a referendum on your presence, Budd, then I'm afraid you're going to lose, just for practical reasons. So it's probably in your interest to keep that from happening.

I'll grant that ochotona's comment was not terribly polite, but it didn't really imply anything other than that he's heard what you have to say and doesn't need to hear it again.

There was another prolific poster here who got relegated to certain sections of the forum because he would turn every conversation into a debate about the same topic, over and over. As I recall, he understood, and continued to contribute in his allocated areas. (Haven't seen him lately, though, hope he's okay.) I really hope this doesn't come to that, but maybe it could be good for everyone?

Please keep on taking that high road, Budd. It'll keep getting easier: not only will practice help, but the less you react the calmer everyone else will get.

Now, back to your regularly scheduled "Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP" discussion!
It was a passive-aggressive comment from Ochotona and that’s fine I really don’t care. AGAIN, no biggie if I am banned from this forum (actually welcome it to close this chapter in my life). At least I own all 4 assets which is more than I can say for many (if not most) of those on this site. Good luck to you all and goodbye. I’ll miss a handful of you but the rest would not give the time of day if I met you on the street.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Tue Mar 05, 2019 10:03 am

Agree 100% KBG. DM is meant to reduce the left tail and reduce the extreme timing luck of buy and hold into a set of different timing luck problems, hopefully ones that are easier to live with. That's about it. It's not magic, not a miracle, and it has side effects.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Thu Mar 07, 2019 8:33 am

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03- ... oming-days

McElligott has similar 1 year look back concerns as I do, that the year-ago recovery in equities raises the probability of sell signals being issued in the present day. I had no idea the CTAs were using look-backs for a year; I just assumed they were into much shorter duration high frequency trading.

If everyone does something, it stops working.

I broke discipline and didn't get in on March 1, because I figured this was a risk. The lookbacks on different month scales are just clobbered to hell. GPS is great, but don't drive into a lake, I suppose... unless you have an amphibious vehicle.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Kbg » Thu Mar 07, 2019 4:14 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 8:33 am
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03- ... oming-days

McElligott has similar 1 year look back concerns as I do, that the year-ago recovery in equities raises the probability of sell signals being issued in the present day. I had no idea the CTAs were using look-backs for a year; I just assumed they were into much shorter duration high frequency trading.

If everyone does something, it stops working.

I broke discipline and didn't get in on March 1, because I figured this was a risk. The lookbacks on different month scales are just clobbered to hell. GPS is great, but don't drive into a lake, I suppose... unless you have an amphibious vehicle.
As I mentioned earlier, pro trend followers are diverse. This stuff is NOT stationary. Just about everything compared to the US stk market since 2009 has not outperformed it. It’s unusual but not unprecedented. Some day this will change...no idea when but it will.

Update: CTAs love big long term trends that is where they make the majority of their money due to how they position size...the longer the trend the more money will be on that position. You don’t hook those on ST measurements.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by pmward » Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:47 pm

After ocho posted about the strategy in the other thread I took a look into it, then came back and read this thread. I have a couple thoughts:

1) I'm not sure I like having an anecdotal date once a month to receive signals. I also do not like having no buffer on whether a buy or sell signal is triggered. This is too rigid for my tastes, and the poor response from December until now could have been less poor if the system were more robust. Trend following systems are always going to have whipsaws, there's no getting around that. But the December snafu was inexcusable. In a robust system you should have been taken out prior to December 31st, and should have been back in much earlier, imo. You would have gotten whipsawed to a degree, but not that bad.

2) One way to make the system more robust, that would also address my two peeves above, would be to receive daily signals. If a daily signal triggers, then you fall back on bands to have a buffer. So, for example, on the very day that a signal is triggered you could implement a stop loss or stop buy at something like 3% away from current price, cancelled upon the signal clearing. Obviously this is not something I've backtested, so it would require some due diligence, but might be an idea worth considering.

3) I'm also not ecstatic about there only being the single signal of 12 month last year. That's once again, very anecdotal. You are not just reliant on the markets performance this year, but markets behaving last year at this same time as well. If last year did something strange (like it did) it's going to effect you this year if you only have one look back window. I think that looking at multiple time frames like you were would probably help. I think using a combination of indicators might help to. Like say 3 month momentum, 12 month momentum, above/below 200 day moving average, above/below 10 day moving average and triggering buy/sell on 3 of the 4 signals combined. There are x number of signals that could be tested and taken into account as well, but a good combination of short and long dated would be important, imo.

4) The most important part of a rules based system is that you follow the rules. If you bring emotions into a rules based system it won't work. Sometimes a rules based system will burn you, other times it will reward you. If you believe in the model then you gotta stick with it all or nothing. Every time the system does not provide the desired result does not mean the whole system needs to be redesigned. If sticking to a rules based system is stressful then buy and hold might be a better option. So if you're going to stick with trend following, I think the best thing to do is to iron out the rules and write them down before you get back into the market. Then from that point forward, the rules are the rules.

HTH.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:55 pm

Yup
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Kbg » Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:22 am

I don't know how many times I can say this...diversify signals.

Momentum is one of the strongest known factors there is. It's as rock solid as it gets academically. This does not equate to outperforming always and in fact it has not been all that great for the past decade as it was not great during the 1990s.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by HappyMan » Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:59 am

Hi all,

The last trade day of this month is this Friday. Momentum, so far, points to stocks. Bonds have outdone them. Where will you invest for April?
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:51 pm

HappyMan wrote:
Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:59 am
Hi all,

The last trade day of this month is this Friday. Momentum, so far, points to stocks. Bonds have outdone them. Where will you invest for April?
I'm looking for an entry point at or below February's close (SPX 2784), when I got buy signals from both GEM and Economic Pulse portfolios. I tried to second-guess the signals, thinking we were looking at a bull trap. I still think that way, but I'm willing to accept that after a month at this level it's time to go back in.

But I'm going back in at HBPP allocation levels, 25%, very lightweight. I don't want any more whipsaws to drag around a whole bunch of capital. When things settle, I'll get back to my normal allocation. In 1994, GEM whipped for 11 months, then took off to the upside. I'm resigned that we could be whipping for much of 2019 before we decide... up or down?
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by pmward » Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:04 pm

ochotona wrote:
Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:51 pm
HappyMan wrote:
Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:59 am
Hi all,

The last trade day of this month is this Friday. Momentum, so far, points to stocks. Bonds have outdone them. Where will you invest for April?
I'm looking for an entry point at or below February's close (SPX 2784), when I got buy signals from both GEM and Economic Pulse portfolios. I tried to second-guess the signals, thinking we were looking at a bull trap. I still think that way, but I'm willing to accept that after a month at this level it's time to go back in.

But I'm going back in at HBPP allocation levels, 25%, very lightweight. I don't want any more whipsaws to drag around a whole bunch of capital. When things settle, I'll get back to my normal allocation. In 1994, GEM whipped for 11 months, then took off to the upside. I'm resigned that we could be whipping for much of 2019 before we decide... up or down?
Let us know the day you buy back in, so we all know to sell, hahaha.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:14 pm

pmward wrote:
Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:04 pm
Let us know the day you buy back in, so we all know to sell, hahaha.
That's about how it works, isn't it?
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by HappyMan » Tue Mar 26, 2019 9:25 pm

Thanks, ochotona-san! You are a true samurai. You honestly share your thoughts, ups and downs, and your plan of action. I always appreciate it in people.

As for HBPP, among which assets do you spread the capital by 25%?
ochotona wrote:
Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:51 pm
HappyMan wrote:
Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:59 am
Hi all,

The last trade day of this month is this Friday. Momentum, so far, points to stocks. Bonds have outdone them. Where will you invest for April?
I'm looking for an entry point at or below February's close (SPX 2784), when I got buy signals from both GEM and Economic Pulse portfolios. I tried to second-guess the signals, thinking we were looking at a bull trap. I still think that way, but I'm willing to accept that after a month at this level it's time to go back in.

But I'm going back in at HBPP allocation levels, 25%, very lightweight. I don't want any more whipsaws to drag around a whole bunch of capital. When things settle, I'll get back to my normal allocation. In 1994, GEM whipped for 11 months, then took off to the upside. I'm resigned that we could be whipping for much of 2019 before we decide... up or down?
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Wed Mar 27, 2019 5:37 am

After I reenter this will be my allocation

Stocks 28%
Gold 12%
Cash 13%
Intermediate Treasuries 47%

....for a smooth ride until it's time to truly go on the offense again.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by HappyMan » Wed Mar 27, 2019 9:38 am

ochotona wrote:
Wed Mar 27, 2019 5:37 am
After I reenter this will be my allocation

Stocks 28%
Gold 12%
Cash 13%
Intermediate Treasuries 47%

....for a smooth ride until it's time to truly go on the offense again.
Thanks for the numbers! What do you use for gold? Which option for gold do you recommend at Schwab?
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