"The Upside Down"

A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

Post Reply
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: "The Upside Down"

Post by ochotona » Mon Mar 06, 2017 11:19 am

I actually would intend to buy and hold GRZZX or SH. If you backtest a portfolio which is 1/2 SH and 1/2 SPY, you get exactly flat, zero, over a long period of time. Holding SH is OK, it doesn't deteriorate. A leveraged inverse ETF really would, however, be dangerous to buy and hold.

The fly I see in the soup is a big one... Central Bank Intervention. We need a situation where markets keep selling off even if Yellin is yellin'. Otherwise Yellin is going to stop you out, and you'll take a loss.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: "The Upside Down"

Post by ochotona » Sun Dec 03, 2017 1:18 pm

Still watching. Still waiting. Shorts have gotten totally killed in 2017. I think I'd maybe go short with 5% into four different funds from different providers, for a total of 20%. Direxion (SPDN or CHAD), Proshares (many options, but maybe inverse NASDAQ or inverse Russell 2000), Leuthold (GRZZX), and Cambria (TAIL). Wake me up if the fireworks ever start.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14231
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: "The Upside Down"

Post by dualstow » Mon Dec 04, 2017 6:56 am

Shorts have gotten totally killed in 2017.
There are stranger things than shorting the market, and a lot of experts think it’s a healthy part of the system, but I don’t think I could bring myself to try it. Seems really hard to time.

(Wasn’t that Reub’s line? When “Yellen is yellin”?)
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: "The Upside Down"

Post by ochotona » Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:54 am

You can get some courage from portfoliovisualizer.com. No matter what, the volatility is going to be soul-sucking. I'm not sure if I can do it either.
Post Reply