Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

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Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by ochotona » Wed Jun 22, 2016 7:06 pm

MG and InsuranceGuy,

1-year look-back Time Series Momentum could have a whipsaw soon. Let's say we get pushed out of equities into bonds on July 1 or August 1. Well, on September 1, because of the severe downturn a year prior, Dual Momentum could then suddenly print a "buy", then on November 1 it could print a "sell", not due to current behavior so much as due to year-ago volatility, if we stay in the $SPX 1800-2100 trading range.

It seems just stupid to voluntarily walk into a situation where you can see there is going to be a problem based on what has already happened and is already well known. I don't like to trade just for the hell of it because every trade has risk attached to it.

What do you think? I am thinking of these alternatives:

1. Don't trade at all September - October. Just stand down
2. Trade using 10 month MA / 210 day MA until March 1 2017*
3. Change the TMOM look-back from 12-mo to 6-mo until we are past February 10 2016* as the year-ago reference, then lengthen it every month until back out to 12 mo.
4. Use $SPX=2100 as my year-ago reference, through March 2017*, or some other peak-following fitted curve

"Do nothing" 1. is simple, but if the SHTF it's no good. 4. has decisions to be made... do you connect the peaks or the valleys, or split the difference? It's a human interpretation process, which I don't like.

I am leaning toward 2. because it is back-tested early into the 20th century, and it is almost totally objective. The only non-objective part is when to start and stop doing it. I think when TMOM and MA are in total agreement (most of the time, they are), and you don't see data spikes coming up as the year-ago compare, then you go back to TMOM.

I am actually trading emails with Gary Antonacci, and he's telling me to stick with TMOM (of course). I know TMOM trades less on average than 10-mo MA, and I want to trade less, but this just seems like a special and easily readable case. You see the bad year-ago data spike coming... delete the data, edit it, smooth through it, but don't let yourself get sucked into a trade which can be predicted to easily reverse.

Of course, it's all moot if we break out of the trading range, up or down.

What do you guys think?

* By April 1 2016 we had pulled out of the dual troughs, the April 1 2017 signal won't be contaminated by year-ago volatility
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by InsuranceGuy » Wed Jun 22, 2016 9:04 pm

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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Jun 22, 2016 9:17 pm

Ocho,

You are running into the main reason of why I started the PP: preventing forced decisions that I usually regretted the day after and then whipsawed myself in or out over and over!

Just the fact that you are trying to prognosticate what you think will happen and make a decision on it confirms I have taken the right path.

I know you aren't asking for my opinion, just letting you know how I felt the minute I read your post. You are trying to make a decision on events that are unknowable, no matter what history says.
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by ochotona » Wed Jun 22, 2016 9:35 pm

InsuranceGuy wrote:Most of my scenarios actually lean towards 10/11 month lookbacks as opposed to the traditional 12 month lookbacks. I personally don't plan on changing my strategy, but my strategy also requires consistent model outputs to change course, so hopefully that smooths out the trading.
How do you smooth the outputs?
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by MachineGhost » Wed Jun 22, 2016 10:38 pm

ochotona wrote:
InsuranceGuy wrote:Most of my scenarios actually lean towards 10/11 month lookbacks as opposed to the traditional 12 month lookbacks. I personally don't plan on changing my strategy, but my strategy also requires consistent model outputs to change course, so hopefully that smooths out the trading.
How do you smooth the outputs?
I echo what Cortopassi said. In the meantime, consider using this:

http://expirebox.com/download/d2c8997f1 ... d18b2.html
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by ochotona » Thu Jun 23, 2016 5:09 am

MachineGhost wrote:
ochotona wrote:
InsuranceGuy wrote:Most of my scenarios actually lean towards 10/11 month lookbacks as opposed to the traditional 12 month lookbacks. I personally don't plan on changing my strategy, but my strategy also requires consistent model outputs to change course, so hopefully that smooths out the trading.
How do you smooth the outputs?
I echo what Cortopassi said. In the meantime, consider using this:

http://expirebox.com/download/d2c8997f1 ... d18b2.html
Thanks, I have considering using centered moving averages on the year-ago data also! But, I gave up on it, because of the sheer magnitude of the Aug-Sep-Oct 2015 decline in the market. The choice of smoothing is highly influential and there are no guidelines. It's too much "art" and "it looks good to me". That's why I'm really thinking about going over from one proven, highly backtested method (TMOM) to another (MA), just temporarily.
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by InsuranceGuy » Thu Jun 23, 2016 8:19 am

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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by ochotona » Thu Jun 23, 2016 8:46 am

InsuranceGuy wrote:My scenarios all assume a certain amount of repeated signals, so it might require 2 or 3 or even 5 repeated signals to move into or out of a particular asset. In times of whipsaws this typically smooths things out at least to some degree.
That sounds like a good approach. I'm really thinking about using MA and TMOM in a voting scheme, if they are not unanimous in their opinion, then DO NOTHING until they start to agree again.
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by ochotona » Thu Jun 23, 2016 12:16 pm

Cortopassi wrote:Ocho,

You are running into the main reason of why I started the PP: preventing forced decisions that I usually regretted the day after and then whipsawed myself in or out over and over!

Just the fact that you are trying to prognosticate what you think will happen and make a decision on it confirms I have taken the right path.

I know you aren't asking for my opinion, just letting you know how I felt the minute I read your post. You are trying to make a decision on events that are unknowable, no matter what history says.
Well, I think you misunderstand the issue here. I'm not trying to predict the future. I'm trying to figure out what to do with confusing data from the year-prior compare time (TMOM). I am trying to combine two robust, back-tested (100+ years), unemotional trading rules in such a way that they complement each other's strengths and compensate for each other's weaknesses.
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:23 pm

Maybe I misunderstood, but the final reasoning is the same. I jumped from one winning strategy/indicator/style to another for 20 years and it was my downfall. I got burned by the switching around.

You are trying to predict the future. You talk about walking into a situation where you can see there is going to be a problem. So you are using history to guide your future decisions.

The rules themselves may be unemotional, but you and your bias and emotions have to make the decision between those rules.

But hey, the PP originally was a very emotional decision for me. I work best in investing with limiting the number of decisions I have to make.
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by Kbg » Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:41 pm

Unfortunately I don't recall where I read the article/paper, but it basically demonstrated that periodic total return and a straight moving average were basically the same thing when it came to timing signals.

So let's get one thing straight...you have zero knowledge, today, whether or not an override will hurt or help. Embrace the suck. It is what it is and is the downside to momentum investing. Professional momentum investors, like HB in his PP philosophy, do not pretend they can predict. They just follow the signals as they come. You are assuming price will go nowhere between now and November. As you note, it could just as easily move dramatically and the later you adjust to it the more you hurt your performance.

With regard to smoothing there are several ways.

1. Go with monthly or weekly data

2. Use a MA or an EMA

3. You can use voting scheme...this is normally done with different MA lengths or lookback periods

4. You can have a time sequenced tranched portfolio...in other words, break your portfolio up and trade signals exactly as they come for that portion of the portfolio based on your trade dates. Thus, you might break your port into 3/4 tranches and look at the signals once a week, month or quarterly in rotational sequence.

If you want to get the closest possible to whatever Mr. Market may give us in the future and minimize random variation results, go with option 4. The downside is it drives up portfolio costs due to more frequent trading.

Personal recommendation...go with #4 unless it is a taxable account. If psychologically you like doing something then divide your port into quarters and review 1/4 of your port each week. If you want to reduce costs then go with thirds and once a month for 1/3 of your port...the latter would totally take you away from your current worries.
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by MachineGhost » Thu Jun 23, 2016 5:03 pm

ochotona wrote:Thanks, I have considering using centered moving averages on the year-ago data also! But, I gave up on it, because of the sheer magnitude of the Aug-Sep-Oct 2015 decline in the market. The choice of smoothing is highly influential and there are no guidelines. It's too much "art" and "it looks good to me". That's why I'm really thinking about going over from one proven, highly backtested method (TMOM) to another (MA), just temporarily.
Just hook a 200-day MA to a 12-month TMOM since that is what everyone uses now. There is no optimal length ever, only more or less robust.
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by MachineGhost » Thu Jun 23, 2016 5:08 pm

Kbg wrote:4. You can have a time sequenced tranched portfolio...in other words, break your portfolio up and trade signals exactly as they come for that portion of the portfolio based on your trade dates. Thus, you might break your port into 3/4 tranches and look at the signals once a week, month or quarterly in rotational sequence.

If you want to get the closest possible to whatever Mr. Market may give us in the future and minimize random variation results, go with option 4. The downside is it drives up portfolio costs due to more frequent trading.

Personal recommendation...go with #4 unless it is a taxable account. If psychologically you like doing something then divide your port into quarters and review 1/4 of your port each week. If you want to reduce costs then go with thirds and once a month for 1/3 of your port...the latter would totally take you away from your current worries.
Are you talking about dollar cost averging in on the same signal but over a period of time? That's pretty much what I'm doing with the PP to avoid sequence of returns risk.
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by Kbg » Thu Jun 23, 2016 5:33 pm

MG,

Not sure what exactly what you mean, but no it isn't averaging in on a signal as I would use the term. It is essentially setting up x number of pseudo portfolios with time separated signals and then trading them individually. By time separate an example would be dividing your portfolio into 4 pseudo ports and checking for signals each week. If your signal check day was Friday and it indicated a change the change would only apply to 1/4 of your port/that week's pseudo port. Let's say the next week there was a whipsaw back then for the second pseudo port you would do nothing. This assumes port 1 and port 2 were the same 3 weeks ago of course. This technique doesn't improve performance it simply (greatly) reduces random performance outcomes.

For a visual...let's say you were running a Monte Carlo analysis that produces a "broomstick" chart. The broom threads would be much tighter and closer to the median result.
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by MachineGhost » Thu Jun 23, 2016 6:15 pm

Kbg wrote:MG,

Not sure what exactly what you mean, but no it isn't averaging in on a signal as I would use the term. It is essentially setting up x number of pseudo portfolios with time separated signals and then trading them individually. By time separate an example would be dividing your portfolio into 4 pseudo ports and checking for signals each week. If your signal check day was Friday and it indicated a change the change would only apply to 1/4 of your port/that week's pseudo port. Let's say the next week there was a whipsaw back then for the second pseudo port you would do nothing. This assumes port 1 and port 2 were the same 3 weeks ago of course. This technique doesn't improve performance it simply (greatly) reduces random performance outcomes.

For a visual...let's say you were running a Monte Carlo analysis that produces a "broomstick" chart. The broom threads would be much tighter and closer to the median result.
But when do you get fully invested if theres no flip flopping? You'll miss out on the gains!
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by ochotona » Thu Jun 23, 2016 6:18 pm

We've been through period of really historic volatility since late August 2015. The US equity market has been in a trading range since October 2014. TMOM examines the differences between prices. Would it be reasonable to expect that a differencing method would work during a period of severe price volatility? Answer - it's probably not the best environment for TMOM.

That's not a prediction. That's just reality. TMOM is the wrong algorithm to use at this time.

Also, Antonacci himself and Gray, Vogel, and Foulke all demonstrate that 1-year TMOM and 10-mo MA are really about the same, in the end. Except TMOM trades less on average. We're not in "average" times.

So I'm going to fail-over from primary TMOM to backup MA, until we go a year past the two historic Valleys of Worry... either to the upside or the downside. 10-mo MA instead of 210 day MA is also a good idea, thanks.

Now if we keep doing these severe S&P 1800-2100 Valleys many more times... that will be bad, yes. That would be teh suck.

I only want to trade once a month. I think about it as the end of month approaches, then I just want to pull the trigger (or not) and forget about it until the next month.
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by MachineGhost » Thu Jun 23, 2016 6:34 pm

I disagree that the period since last year is anything in terms of "really historic volatility". Look back a lot further in history and you'll see much, much worse times that makes today's volatility look like a walk in the park.

I admit I can't really visualize what you're so concerned about here unless it is the dropoff and wiggle effect from using a ROC. If you're not willing to stick to a simple method through thick and thin, then it's just not going to work. You can't avoid whipsaws unless you introduce more lag and give up more gains.

Another thing you can try is using a separate momentum measurement for exiting than for entry. They are rarely, if ever, optimal to be exactly the same because of the nature of greed and panic.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by Kbg » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:42 pm

MachineGhost wrote:
Kbg wrote:MG,

Not sure what exactly what you mean, but no it isn't averaging in on a signal as I would use the term. It is essentially setting up x number of pseudo portfolios with time separated signals and then trading them individually. By time separate an example would be dividing your portfolio into 4 pseudo ports and checking for signals each week. If your signal check day was Friday and it indicated a change the change would only apply to 1/4 of your port/that week's pseudo port. Let's say the next week there was a whipsaw back then for the second pseudo port you would do nothing. This assumes port 1 and port 2 were the same 3 weeks ago of course. This technique doesn't improve performance it simply (greatly) reduces random performance outcomes.

For a visual...let's say you were running a Monte Carlo analysis that produces a "broomstick" chart. The broom threads would be much tighter and closer to the median result.
But when do you get fully invested if theres no flip flopping? You'll miss out on the gains!
If your signal is long for four weeks you are fully invested until it turns to sell/short. Again, you are going to basically get the returns of whatever trend system you are using. In fact, you should be closer to the mean returns over many start and trading dates. This method simply reduces the impact of signal timing variability.
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by MachineGhost » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:34 am

Kbg wrote: If your signal is long for four weeks you are fully invested until it turns to sell/short. Again, you are going to basically get the returns of whatever trend system you are using. In fact, you should be closer to the mean returns over many start and trading dates. This method simply reduces the impact of signal timing variability.
That sounds like what I originally asked, dollar cost avergining on the same signal?
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by Kbg » Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:01 am

MachineGhost wrote:
Kbg wrote: If your signal is long for four weeks you are fully invested until it turns to sell/short. Again, you are going to basically get the returns of whatever trend system you are using. In fact, you should be closer to the mean returns over many start and trading dates. This method simply reduces the impact of signal timing variability.
That sounds like what I originally asked, dollar cost avergining on the same signal?
Same signal, yes. However, you trade the sub portfolio according to the signal on that day. So let's say you were long in all 4 sub ports and on week one the signal said to close. Then you would close 1/4 of the port. If on week two the signal was long you would do nothing and 3/4 of the port would stay long. If on week three the signal flipped again then another 1/4 would be closed but not 3/4 of it(i.e. You wouldn't go back and close week 2)
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by ochotona » Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:43 am

After #brexit, trying to figure out a false "risk-on" signal could be completely a moot point.

However,

I have chosen target price levels for my ETFs for the troublesome months ahead. Sept, Oct, Feb, Mar. I am just linearly interpolating Aug-Nov, and Jan-Apr. No emotion, no fear, no panic - I'm going to execute. It just seems pointless ("stoooopid") to execute on a buy signal caused by short-term -14% price fluctuation year-prior which then quickly reversed - twice! I'm just not even going to look at those scenarios. Why?

Worst case scenario if I blow the trade? I stay in bonds a few months longer than otherwise. Not a big deal. Really not a big deal.
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by ochotona » Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:35 pm

The AlphaArchitect guys have licensed Enhanced Global Equities Momentum (E-GEM) from Gary Antonacci. That's the proprietary version of the Dual Momentum allocation described in the book. I am moving my IRA over from another Gary-affiliated advisor, which is a little sad and disruptive. :-\ It's hard for me to sever human ties based purely on cold business considerations. AlphaArchitect offering it for 25 basis points less, which amounts to a big difference over years and years.
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by MachineGhost » Tue Sep 20, 2016 10:41 am

ochotona wrote:The AlphaArchitect guys have licensed Enhanced Global Equities Momentum (E-GEM) from Gary Antonacci. That's the proprietary version of the Dual Momentum allocation described in the book. I am moving my IRA over from another Gary-affiliated advisor, which is a little sad and disruptive. :-\ It's hard for me to sever human ties based purely on cold business considerations. AlphaArchitect offering it for 25 basis points less, which amounts to a big difference over years and years.
Human ties is why you pay for the advisor's Porsche and McMansion!

What's going to be in the "enhanced"?

I'm not sure why you're so gung ho about GEM and AA though. They're not the best implementations of momentum. Nor should you put all your eggs into one basket. There's about a handful or two of ETF's now with downside risk management and some use momentum. You would be better off with strategy diversification because of the severe tracking error with momentum.

The state of the art is now Faber's Triple whateveritscalled. AA clearly doesn't understand the concept of proper portfolio diversification and GEM is curve fitted junk to uninvestable indexes IMO.
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by Mr Vacuum » Tue Sep 20, 2016 11:51 am

How do you figure "uninvestable indexes"? It's the S&P 500 and AWCI ex US.
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Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought

Post by MachineGhost » Tue Sep 20, 2016 12:32 pm

Mr Vacuum wrote:How do you figure "uninvestable indexes"? It's the S&P 500 and AWCI ex US.
No one can invest in indexes, hence the're uninvestable. Which is why performance differs. No fund literally buys all of the stocks in an index; they use shortcuts. Small tracking errors compound enormously over time which biases positive results.

My point is you have to take it with several grains of salt any system that uses uninvestable indexes compared to actual investable funds. The former always looks better (especially in the far flung past when such indexes did not even have any matching investable funds) and to what extent it is misleading depends on how skilled you are about being cognizant of all this stuff.
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