Golden Butterfly Portfolio

A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio

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snedgar
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by snedgar » Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:42 am

sophie wrote:
Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:02 pm
... eventually I realized I was simply letting not so smart people parrot their latest stupid ideas into my head. Don't let that happen! ...
There is so much wisdom here but this is the best quote of the week!

You guys rock!
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by whatchamacallit » Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:15 pm

Sorry for short type. I am on phone.

Anyone else try:
25% each in
Tsm
Scv
Intermediate term treasury
Gld

It tops the portfolio matrix

https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/portfolio-matrix/

I love the bit more of simplicity of it. Intermediate treasury is a lot easier to find in retirement accounts.
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by Mark Leavy » Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:21 pm

whatchamacallit wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:15 pm
Sorry for short type. I am on phone.

Anyone else try:
25% each in
Tsm
Scv
Intermediate term treasury
Gld

It tops the portfolio matrix

https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/portfolio-matrix/

I love the bit more of simplicity of it. Intermediate treasury is a lot easier to find in retirement accounts.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with that portfolio. It looks pretty sane.

Careful with your metrics, though. It's tough to measure what you get when you reduce cash/bond exposure for more equities.
It almost always makes the numbers better. But there are a lot of real life trade-offs happening there. It isn't just all what you can see in the numbers.

When I war-game against real life, I like to remove cash from the percentages and divide my portfolio up as 5 years living expenses in cash - and then the rest divvied up in LT bonds, Equities and Physical Gold - with exposures to your preference.

EDIT: If you are still working and very confident in your income, then that could replace the cash cushion that I use.
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by joypog » Sun May 01, 2022 11:31 pm

PP67 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:15 am
My simplistic way of potentially dealing with rebalancing a GB (which is just a HBPP + 20% VB for me) was to track the HBPP portion separately and when the HBPP portion hits a 15%/35% limit on any of the HBPP assets I would rebalance everything back to a GB allocation (20% in all 5 assets). My rational is that whatever environment caused one of the HBPP components to trigger a rebalance would probably hold true for a GB allocation as well.

I currently have 18.4% VTI, 27.2% TLT, 21.9% GLD and 32.5% "cash" in my HBPP portion which is getting close to the 35% limit. My GB allocation currently works out to be 16.7% VTI, 9% VB, 24.7% TLT, 20% GLD and 29.6% "cash". If my HBPP "cash" portion hits 35%, I would try to rebalance everything back to 20% each in a GB allocation (or as reasonably close).
I'm not experienced in finance, but I play a ton of boardgames. I have no idea how this rebalancing scheme works in real life but numerically it is an elegant solution. I'm most likely going to adopt it as I sort out my finances and transition to a HBPP/GB asset allocation.

Have you kept to it? Or have you changed your process over the past couple of years.

(on a seperate note I just read this thread over the past ninety minutes as I procrastinate on finishing some overdue work that I was supposed to deliver on Friday. I feel like I just read a novel...but maybe its my stress from being behind. Cheers!)
1/n weirdo. US-TSM, US-SCV, Intl-SCV, LTT, STT, GLD (+ a little in MF)
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by ochotona » Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:03 pm

I have RSP on the brain today (equal-weight S&P500 ETF). A GB with 40% RSP beats a GB with 20% ISV and 20% VTI, but the limiting factor for my backtesting (portfoliovisualizer.com) is when GLD started. It makes sense, RSP is not an implicit growth strategy (unlike cap-weighted ETFs) is therefore more value-ish, and has less weight put into the "titans" of the day of the S&P500, smaller firms contribute more.
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by D1984 » Sun Jun 12, 2022 1:26 am

ochotona wrote:
Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:03 pm
I have RSP on the brain today (equal-weight S&P500 ETF). A GB with 40% RSP beats a GB with 20% ISV and 20% VTI, but the limiting factor for my backtesting (portfoliovisualizer.com) is when GLD started. It makes sense, RSP is not an implicit growth strategy (unlike cap-weighted ETFs) is therefore more value-ish, and has less weight put into the "titans" of the day of the S&P500, smaller firms contribute more.
I may be wrong here, but doesn't PV let you use the ticker ^GOLD to go back to 1985 (or even 1972) rather than just using the ticker symbol GLD?
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by ochotona » Sun Jun 12, 2022 6:21 am

I will have to try!

And that point the GB devolves into an HBPP with an equity tilt...
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by Xan » Sun Jun 12, 2022 8:29 am

ochotona wrote:
Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:03 pm
I have RSP on the brain today (equal-weight S&P500 ETF). A GB with 40% RSP beats a GB with 20% ISV and 20% VTI, but the limiting factor for my backtesting (portfoliovisualizer.com) is when GLD started. It makes sense, RSP is not an implicit growth strategy (unlike cap-weighted ETFs) is therefore more value-ish, and has less weight put into the "titans" of the day of the S&P500, smaller firms contribute more.
Would you say that such funds are a kind of automatic buy-low sell-high?
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by joypog » Sun Jun 12, 2022 8:57 am

ochotona wrote:
Sun Jun 12, 2022 6:21 am
I will have to try!

And that point the GB devolves into an HBPP with an equity tilt...
Isn't that the basic point of the GB? It's a HBPP with a prosperity tilt with <choose favorite factor(s)> to spice up the second equity peortion.

Then again, as I write this, maybe GB is more than that. The current market is showing why the SV tilt makes sense as a preferred tilt for the GB. It's a mini-barbell for the equities portion. In a bubble you have the MCW portion to pull the train, and when it deflates, you have the SV to avoid the worst of the losses.
Last edited by joypog on Sun Jun 12, 2022 9:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by joypog » Sun Jun 12, 2022 9:01 am

Xan wrote:
Sun Jun 12, 2022 8:29 am
ochotona wrote:
Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:03 pm
I have RSP on the brain today (equal-weight S&P500 ETF). A GB with 40% RSP beats a GB with 20% ISV and 20% VTI, but the limiting factor for my backtesting (portfoliovisualizer.com) is when GLD started. It makes sense, RSP is not an implicit growth strategy (unlike cap-weighted ETFs) is therefore more value-ish, and has less weight put into the "titans" of the day of the S&P500, smaller firms contribute more.
Would you say that such funds are a kind of automatic buy-low sell-high?
Wall street guys are so slick. The MCW guys says look at the high churn in that fund! The Equal Weights guy retorts with your line.

Listening to investing podcasts that interview fund managers are a masterclass in sales! Most of those guys are so goddamn smooth, they talk like they're just sharing knowledge for 58 minutes and land with a subtle drop for their project in the last 120 seconds.
1/n weirdo. US-TSM, US-SCV, Intl-SCV, LTT, STT, GLD (+ a little in MF)
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ochotona
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by ochotona » Sun Jun 12, 2022 10:30 am

Xan wrote:
Sun Jun 12, 2022 8:29 am
Would you say that such funds are a kind of automatic buy-low sell-high?
YES. Whenever they rebalance to equal Dollar amounts for each security, they will do that.

Market-cap weighted are a momentum strategy. The titans of the S&P500 got that way because they have grown a lot in recent years, which results in them having a large weight.
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by boglerdude » Sun Jun 12, 2022 5:02 pm

"Equal" weight has you own 1% of Microsoft and 25% of Joe's vegan tacos. Also the slick folks like Arnott can front run the funds they manage.

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/61 ... -is-flawed
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by ochotona » Sun Jun 12, 2022 7:26 pm

You're being ridiculous. The smallest companies in the SP are like Alaska Airlines, News Corp, Fox News, DaVita, Norwegian Cruise Lines .. Don't throw that Joe's Vegan Taco stuff around any longer. You make yourself look absurd. Your posts don't deserve a reply
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by ochotona » Sun Jun 12, 2022 7:28 pm

Now I remember why I left the forum for two years
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by Kbg » Sun Jun 12, 2022 7:32 pm

ochotona wrote:
Sun Jun 12, 2022 7:28 pm
Now I remember why I left the forum for two years
Xan is now booting the complete and total nobs thus bringing much needed relief to a struggling board.

But one still needs to mentally delete out some posts to stick around.
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by Xan » Sun Jun 12, 2022 7:32 pm

Ocho, you seem to be having a disproportionate response. It's perfectly sufficient to point out the smallest companies in the fund without the personal insults. Please try to remember that most of the people who are reading posts are not the person you're responding to, and are happy to learn things like what the smallest companies are. The insults are pretty off-putting.
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by Smith1776 » Sat Jul 30, 2022 6:38 am

vnatale wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:38 pm

In 2029 I wonder what people will be writing about what Permanent Portfolio holders did in 2020 and what gold did during the year....

Vinny
I'm setting a reminder in my calendar. O0
25% ZFS | 25% ZFL | 25% VVL | 25% CCOM
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:48 pm

Out of curiosity, how many forum members here are using the GB as their allocation of choice?
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by flyingpylon » Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:04 pm

I'm using the GB.
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by joypog » Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:11 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:48 pm
Out of curiosity, how many forum members here are using the GB as their allocation of choice?
I'm averaging into the GB for our taxable account.

For in our retirements I've added International small cap value so that our overall portfolio will be equally split six ways.

I settled upon this new AA a couple weeks ago, but we won't fully average out of our cash-heavy position into this new portfolio till middle of next year so I'd say I'm "decided" but with the adage that money talks bs walks I'm actually "uncertain".
1/n weirdo. US-TSM, US-SCV, Intl-SCV, LTT, STT, GLD (+ a little in MF)
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:14 pm

Interesting to hear, guys. I've settled on the GB as the allocation of choice for my father's estate assets.
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by whatchamacallit » Wed Aug 10, 2022 5:55 pm

Discussion on Paul Merriman's favorite thing, small cap value

Rob Berger Interview with Paul Merriman | Live Q&A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HI4kRHrWyh0
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:12 pm

whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 5:55 pm
Discussion on Paul Merriman's favorite thing, small cap value

Rob Berger Interview with Paul Merriman | Live Q&A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HI4kRHrWyh0
Merriman is great. Small cap value is also great. ;D
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by whatchamacallit » Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:51 pm

Which small cap value funds are you using Smith?

I am having trouble staying the course with small cap value myself. As I have reviewed the different indexes and funds more and more I don't have the faith that they will outperform or lower risk. I am now contributing to larger stock allocation with total market index instead of small cap value.
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:11 pm

whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:51 pm
Which small cap value funds are you using Smith?

I am having trouble staying the course with small cap value myself. As I have reviewed the different indexes and funds more and more I don't have the faith that they will outperform or lower risk. I am now contributing to larger stock allocation with total market index instead of small cap value.
I am Canadian so I am using the only decent SCV fund in literally the whole country: VVL

https://www.vanguard.ca/en/advisor/prod ... p/etfs/VVL

It has a strong value tilt and a moderate size tilt. The t-stat on the value factor being much larger. I would love it if the size tilt was stronger, but it is what it is. Can't ask for the moon, I guess. O0
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