Golden Butterfly Portfolio

A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio

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bedraggled
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by bedraggled » Sun Nov 13, 2016 6:00 pm

How is the GB doing since the election?

And compared to the 4x25 HBPP?
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ochotona
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by ochotona » Sun Nov 13, 2016 7:16 pm

GB is +0.3%, PP is -0.25% since Tuesday... but that's an insignificant amount of time. It means nothing. Ignore it.
bedraggled
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by bedraggled » Sun Nov 13, 2016 7:46 pm

Thanks, Ocho.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by buddtholomew » Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:24 pm

A strong USD has had a negative impact on the PP following the elections. Some assets have benefited from this advance, none more so than small caps.

I have rebalanced out of small caps in retirement accounts and am considering adding to taxable. I would prefer to add international stocks, but small cap appears to assist the PP in times of a rising currency whereas international would respond in similar fashion to gold. Obviously these relationships are not concrete.

So, basically 2 questions.
Does the strong USD/small cap relationship hold true and is holding international (unhedged) for a US investor redundant for the PP?
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Tyler
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by Tyler » Mon Dec 05, 2016 9:46 am

buddtholomew wrote: So, basically 2 questions.
Does the strong USD/small cap relationship hold true and is holding international (unhedged) for a US investor redundant for the PP?
I don't really have an opinion on question #1. For #2, I've personally come to a similar conclusion that you have. Gold is negatively correlated to US stocks but more positively correlated to international stocks, and I believe that's a structural thing and not simply chance. So in the context of the PP or GB I find adding international doesn't really move the needle in a noticeable way. But for non-PP investors with a strong aversion to gold, I think international stocks are a good option for diversifying away from US stocks.
Mechanical engineer, history buff, treasure manager... totally not Ben Gates
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buddtholomew
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:24 pm

Thanks Tyler.
I am trying to identify an asset that correlates well with a rising dollar and so far only UUP ETF appears to meet the requirement.
Jack Jones
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by Jack Jones » Mon Dec 05, 2016 3:13 pm

Tyler wrote:
dualstow wrote: I'm out of date. I thought you were just running a pp.
I still am! I just added a small cap VP a few months ago. ;)
Seriously though, as long as you keep your stock allocation at 25%, I feel like you're free to implement the stock portion as you see fit, and I'd still consider it a PP. Even Harry went through some iterations of how the stock portion should be allocated before he settled on just putting the full 25% in the SP500 (perhaps just for simplicity's sake?).

Edit: Whoops, it appears that I am living in the past.
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by iwealth » Mon Dec 05, 2016 3:55 pm

buddtholomew wrote:Thanks Tyler.
I am trying to identify an asset that correlates well with a rising dollar and so far only UUP ETF appears to meet the requirement.
I have no way of testing this, but I bet you'd be better off shorting a basket of international currencies. Easily done through a brokerage like IB.
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mathjak107
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:43 pm

Tyler wrote:Small and Mid Cap Blend work almost as well.  Even if the "value" premium is a thing of the past, it still seems like there might be value in broadening exposure beyond large cap funds that are influenced by fewer companies than their high-level index count implies.  Even large cap international funds just don't have the same effect. 

But that's just an observation based on the data and not on any theory behind the asset class.  I'm curious if anyone disagrees. 
talk about a great call. i own slyv and what an amazing year we had up 32% .. but it can fall just as heavy . since the new year it has been A WILD RIDE
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ochotona
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by ochotona » Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:23 am

"THE SMALL CAP VALUE PREMIUM IS DEAD"

or not?

2016 index performance

SC blend +18.17%

SC value +24.65%
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mathjak107
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:33 am

the low volume on slyv scares me a bit . i have more than 3,000 shares so if i sold it , i can actually depress the price some days myself . i would definitely use limit orders to sell

i am thinking of going to ijs which has much higher volume
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buddtholomew
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Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Post by buddtholomew » Sun Jan 08, 2017 9:56 am

mathjak107 wrote:the low volume on slyv scares me a bit . i have more than 3,000 shares so if i sold it , i can actually depress the price some days myself . i would definitely use limit orders to sell

i am thinking of going to ijs which has much higher volume
Significantly less than IWN though.
Any reason for selecting IJS over IWN as I too hold IJS and 10 minutes can go by without a trade.
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