Looks like we got another bubble waiting to pop on our hands here. China has doubled in less than 12 months. Typically whenever a market doubles in less than a year, its ripe for a crash.
With their weak economy and flat real estate, it seems to me the locals are desperate and are plowing it all into stocks. It's not as if they have any other investment choices other than gold.
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China Bubble?
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MachineGhost
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China Bubble?
Last edited by MachineGhost on Tue Jun 09, 2015 1:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Re: China Bubble?
Was the United States in a bubble at the start of the industrial revolution?
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MachineGhost
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Re: China Bubble?
Good question!Reub wrote: Was the United States in a bubble at the start of the industrial revolution?
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Re: China Bubble?
I was curious, and this was the best I could do: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_ManiaMachineGhost wrote:Good question!Reub wrote: Was the United States in a bubble at the start of the industrial revolution?
still interesting if you're ignorant about history, as am I
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dualstow
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Re: China Bubble?
Saw this in the WSJ today:
"
China Near to Joining Influential Stock Index
China is closer to joining MSCI’s widely tracked Emerging Markets Index in the latest sign of progress for a nation that has been pushing to change the openness and transparency of its markets.
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"
China Near to Joining Influential Stock Index
China is closer to joining MSCI’s widely tracked Emerging Markets Index in the latest sign of progress for a nation that has been pushing to change the openness and transparency of its markets.
"
9pm EST Explosions in Iran (Isfahan) and Syria and Iraq. Not yet confirmed.
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MachineGhost
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Re: China Bubble?
MSCI demurred, but China can be added at anytime over the next 12-months.
I don't think foreigners realize exactly how bubbly the situation in China really is. Locals are literally borrowing to buy the A-shares. They're even going so far as to travel thousands of miles to Hong Kong just to open a brokerage account to get margin privileges and then when they get home they trade online and buy their local A-shares, despite the fact the exact same companies are trading at a substantial discount in Hong Kong as H-shares.
This can't last, but it'll be a fun ride until its over. I'd say 2015.75 is a good time for the top.
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This could be China's 1929.
I don't think foreigners realize exactly how bubbly the situation in China really is. Locals are literally borrowing to buy the A-shares. They're even going so far as to travel thousands of miles to Hong Kong just to open a brokerage account to get margin privileges and then when they get home they trade online and buy their local A-shares, despite the fact the exact same companies are trading at a substantial discount in Hong Kong as H-shares.
This can't last, but it'll be a fun ride until its over. I'd say 2015.75 is a good time for the top.
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[/align]This could be China's 1929.
Last edited by MachineGhost on Wed Jun 10, 2015 10:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Re: China Bubble?
Someone probably said the exact same thing around the time that Al Gore invented the internet.
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MachineGhost
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Re: China Bubble?
According to data compiled by Bloomberg, stocks with primary listings in China are now valued at $10.05T, an increase of $6.7T in the past 12 months. Many consider the heavy expansion as worrisome. No other stock market has grown as much in dollar terms over a 12-month period, valuations are now their greatest in five years and margin debt has climbed to record highs, all while the economy is mired in its weakest expansion since 1990. Putting it into perspective: The size of Japan's stock market is $5T. The U.S. market is valued at almost $25T.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Re: China Bubble?
US equity margin investing is extremely high now also.
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MachineGhost
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Re: China Bubble?
Now's the time. MSCI finally put the A-shares in 20 new indexes which will be a potential 5% in their Emerging Markets index. I picked up TDF today which is trading at a -13% to NAV. Looking at KWEB next week.
Also, VEIEX went green this week so all asset classes are effectively now "risk on". Something's gotta give!
Also, VEIEX went green this week so all asset classes are effectively now "risk on". Something's gotta give!
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!