Tesla Motors
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- dualstow
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Re: Tesla Motors
It was a good still but didn't translate well as a tiny avatar.
Re: Tesla Motors
an article on Tesla and its government subsidy's http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 37952.html
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Re: Tesla Motors
Today's "Investor Update" e-mail from AAII had a lengthy comment on Tesla Motors. I thought it might be of interest to some of you so I'm reprinting it here in its entirety, with credit to the author, Charles Rotblut, CFA, AAII Journal Editor:
Every so often a stock with a good story catches the eyes of traders and experiences a price spike in response. Tesla Motors (TSLA) is currently that stock. Since the end of April, shares of Tesla have approximately doubled in price, soaring from $53.99 on April 30, 2013, to $104.95 today. When hoopla such as this occurs, it is easy to forget that good stories do not always result in good investments.
Tesla certainly has a lot going for it right now. The high-end electric car company delivered better-than-forecast first-quarter results earlier this month. The company paid back an Energy Department loan last week. Earlier today, its CEO announced plans for a nationwide system of supercharging stations. And Tesla’s main competitor, Fisker Automotive, has hired bankruptcy advisers.
The underlying fundamentals are not favorable, however. Tesla is valued at 71 times book value (total assets less total liabilities). Its current market capitalization of $12.1 billion ranks among the top 10% of all stocks in our Stock Investor Pro database. Tesla is not projected to be profitable until 2014, with forecasts ranging from a loss of $0.15 per share to earnings of $2.26 per share. In other words, analysts are extraordinarily divided on how profitable the company will be next year. The difference in forecasts is even wider for 2015. Plus, Tesla has never generated positive cash flow from operations.
Pay attention to two particular points in the last paragraph. Companies expected to achieve strong future growth are often valued based on assumptions about future cash flow. Analysts project results out for several years and then discount the future cash flows using a rate of return intended to compensate investors for the perceived risks. An inherent problem with such models is “garbage in, garbage out.”? If the forecast growth rates prove to be incorrect—and there have been studies showing analysts projections become less reliable as the length of the forecast period is increased—the calculated valuation will be wrong. Even if the forecasts for the next two years are in the ballpark, Tesla will still have to spend significant sums on increasing production. Unlike software, each additional car sold requires the sourcing of materials and the use of labor to produce it.
Adding to the complexity of the problem are the logistics of electric vehicles themselves. Tesla’s Model S sedan will need to be recharged every 200 to 300 miles, depending on battery size and other factors. Though some infrastructure exists, charging machines are scarce overall. Tesla announced plans today to expand its supercharger network nationwide, but the charging stations still won’t be as ubiquitous as gas stations. Patience is also required on the part of the car owner, since even a supercharging station requires a wait of 30 minutes to get enough power to cover 150 miles of driving range.
Then there is the current limited market for Tesla’s vehicles. Pricing for the Model S starts at $62,400, after factoring in a $7,500 federal tax credit. The forthcoming Model X is expected to be similarly priced. Buyers also have to consider the potential hassles of servicing the vehicles, since only 37 service centers nationwide are either currently open or listed as “opening soon.”?
The idea behind a low-to-no emissions vehicle is a good one and Tesla certainly has an interesting story. But, what makes for a good story often does not make for a good stock. Much money has been lost over the years to good stories. Look past the headlines and consider what could go wrong, what the potential hurdles are and how reasonable or irrational the valuation is. A company with a less interesting story, but good financial strength and an inexpensive valuation can make you a bigger profit than a company with simply a good story but not strong financials or a reasonable valuation.
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- dualstow
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Re: Tesla Motors
It's getting harder to not think about this stock. Must.not.look.
Re: Tesla Motors
If "the higher they rise, the faster they fall" has any legitimacy as a saying, I suspect that Tesla May become an example. Fun while it lasted.
- dualstow
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Re: Tesla Motors
Shouldn't you at least wait until after it falls before you use the past tense? It was up another 4% on Friday.smurff wrote: If "the higher they rise, the faster they fall" has any legitimacy as a saying, I suspect that Tesla May become an example. Fun while it lasted.
- Pointedstick
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Re: Tesla Motors
This is exactly the situation I was in with my "fruit company investment". What do you do after a big gain? Sell it all and potentially miss out on subsequent possibly parabolic gains? Sell half and risk the remaining half tanking?
If it were me and I had put more than a few thousand dollars in TSLA, I'd probably sell 75% now to lock in that nice fatty gain. Everyone's psychology is different but personally I've found that 50% is not enough to avoid regret if the remaining half falls.
If it were me and I had put more than a few thousand dollars in TSLA, I'd probably sell 75% now to lock in that nice fatty gain. Everyone's psychology is different but personally I've found that 50% is not enough to avoid regret if the remaining half falls.
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Re: Tesla Motors
I like setting stops and tightening them after the stock has a lot of gain while the market is nervous. With Tesla, I would have gradually moved the stop to 25% below whatever the highest price has been since the buy and gradually tightened the stop from the usual 25% to 10% in an antsy market like the current one. With $120 price price as a high and an antsy market like the past few weeks, I'd therefore sell all when the stock lost $12 (10% threshold) and dropped down to $108. And after selling, I would not look back.
Of course, if it kept moving upward, I'd keep moving the stop upward.
Of course, if it kept moving upward, I'd keep moving the stop upward.
- Ad Orientem
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Re: Tesla Motors
One of the cardinal rules of speculative investing (as also other forms of gambling) is that to be successful you need to know when you have won enough, and it's time to cash in your chips and walk away from the table before your luck turns. Or in other words, no one ever lost money by taking a profit.Pointedstick wrote: This is exactly the situation I was in with my "fruit company investment". What do you do after a big gain? Sell it all and potentially miss out on subsequent possibly parabolic gains? Sell half and risk the remaining half tanking?
If it were me and I had put more than a few thousand dollars in TSLA, I'd probably sell 75% now to lock in that nice fatty gain. Everyone's psychology is different but personally I've found that 50% is not enough to avoid regret if the remaining half falls.
If I had made a boat load of money on this stock I'd sell 50% now and lock in that profit. Then I'd put a stop loss order in so the rest sells automatically if the stock drops 10% from its high.
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- dualstow
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Re: Tesla Motors
I agree with all of you, pretty much, and I supported Greg's selling when he did. It was a prudent move, and you never know.
I thought I was being prudent when I sold Boeing (BA) below $80, and it has only risen since then, and risen sharply.
The reason I am able to hold onto Tesla tenaciously is because I put in a total of $1000 to begin with. It's just for fun. Compare that to Greg who had 4% in TSLA at one point. So he was "right" to sell, and I am "right" to hold.
Meanwhile, I have lost money in a very short amount of time in one other individual stock. A few thousand dollars.
This is why I love the pp. I feel confident putting money into the four assets when they are losing, because I think I'll be ok in the end. Doing the same thing with individual stocks is often just throwing good money after bad.
I thought I was being prudent when I sold Boeing (BA) below $80, and it has only risen since then, and risen sharply.
The reason I am able to hold onto Tesla tenaciously is because I put in a total of $1000 to begin with. It's just for fun. Compare that to Greg who had 4% in TSLA at one point. So he was "right" to sell, and I am "right" to hold.
Meanwhile, I have lost money in a very short amount of time in one other individual stock. A few thousand dollars.
This is why I love the pp. I feel confident putting money into the four assets when they are losing, because I think I'll be ok in the end. Doing the same thing with individual stocks is often just throwing good money after bad.
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Re: Tesla Motors
Remind me to tell you about the time my net worth was 35% AAPL sometime.dualstow wrote: The reason I am able to hold onto Tesla tenaciously is because I put in a total of $1000 to begin with. It's just for fun. Compare that to Greg who had 4% in TSLA at one point. So he was "right" to sell, and I am "right" to hold.
The stock market is a cruel mistress.
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant.
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- dualstow
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Re: Tesla Motors
You must have been grinning from ear to ear when it was over 700.Pointedstick wrote: Remind me to tell you about the time my net worth was 35% AAPL sometime.
The stock market is a cruel mistress.
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Re: Tesla Motors
Unfortunately, I was grinning so hard, I forgot to sell.dualstow wrote:You must have been grinning from ear to ear when it was over 700.Pointedstick wrote: Remind me to tell you about the time my net worth was 35% AAPL sometime.
The stock market is a cruel mistress.
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant.
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- dualstow
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Re: Tesla Motors
I sold a lot of shares at about 340, and then kicked myself when it got that high. There are many ways to fail.
Re: Tesla Motors
The painful memories. I think it gave me an ulcer from all the stress. Picking the stock of the decade is just as much a curse as it is a treasure. Never again...dualstow wrote: I sold a lot of shares at about 340, and then kicked myself when it got that high. There are many ways to fail.
http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/pe ... h-success/
And it was almost unfathomable to see it at 700 after all it had been through.
Last edited by Gumby on Mon Jul 08, 2013 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Nothing I say should be construed as advice or expertise. I am only sharing opinions which may or may not be applicable in any given case.
- dualstow
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Re: Tesla Motors
Yes, Gumby, you actually wrote about it on page 2 of this thread.
But, it bears repeating. I can see why it's often on your mind.
But, it bears repeating. I can see why it's often on your mind.
Re: Tesla Motors
I want TSLA to keep rising for you dualstow but I also want it to come crashing down to maybe $35. Then I'd consider buying in again.
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- dualstow
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Re: Tesla Motors
How about a 3-for-1 split? ;-)1NV35T0R (Greg) wrote: I want TSLA to keep rising for you dualstow but I also want it to come crashing down to maybe $35. Then I'd consider buying in again.
Re: Tesla Motors
... THAT was clever, I'll give you that haha.dualstow wrote:How about a 3-for-1 split? ;-)1NV35T0R (Greg) wrote: I want TSLA to keep rising for you dualstow but I also want it to come crashing down to maybe $35. Then I'd consider buying in again.
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Re: Tesla Motors
Tesla is down almost 14% ($17.51, the last time I checked) today. Apparently the Goldman Saxons think it will be priced around $84.smurff wrote: If "the higher they rise, the faster they fall" has any legitimacy as a saying, I suspect that Tesla May become an example. Fun while it lasted.
This is a bit past the point when I would have launched the "sell" button, since I would have tightened my stop to 15% a few dollars ago (to $113.27), back when the price was over $133.
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Re: Tesla Motors
;-) I like it!smurff wrote: Apparently the Goldman Saxons think
- Ad Orientem
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Re: Tesla Motors
Tesla says Model S gets best NHTSA safety rating ever...
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/tesla-s ... 6C10960098
Read the rest here...While other manufacturers have been struggling to gain traction in a slow-growing battery car market, California start-up Tesla Motors has been exceeding even its own optimistic expectations with the big Model S sedan.
Offering a nearly 300-mile range with its optional 85 kilowatt-hour battery, three times more than most electric models, is one factor that appears to be boosting sales. But now, Tesla hopes there’ll be another reason for buyers to plug into the Model S: the maker is crowing that it has just received the best federal crash test results of any vehicle ever.
According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the Tesla Model S received an overall five-star rating, as well as five stars in every individual test category. That’s something that only 1 percent of the vehicles NHTSA has tested have so far received. But the battery sedan also set a new record for the lowest likelihood for passenger injury ever achieved in the government tests.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/tesla-s ... 6C10960098
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Excellent news!
This car is so great that I have stopped pushing the idea on my parents. I am now afraid that they'd get carjacked. ;-) <--- only half joking.
This car is so great that I have stopped pushing the idea on my parents. I am now afraid that they'd get carjacked. ;-) <--- only half joking.
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Re: Tesla Motors
I'm not sure, but I think at this point Greg probably wants to strangle some of us.
ADDED: But more importantly, they're forecasting a mostly autonomous car in just three years.
http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robo ... ree-years/
ADDED: But more importantly, they're forecasting a mostly autonomous car in just three years.
http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robo ... ree-years/
Last edited by dualstow on Fri Sep 20, 2013 9:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tesla Motors
Am I the only one wary of stuffing more and more high-tech crap into cars? The cynic in me thinks it's the only way they can sustain a moderate level of price inflation and keep their profit margins up. If they built a car today with the technology of a car from 1985 it would probably cost $3,000.
Yes, I know a lot of this is regulatory and that the NHTSA wouldn't let you build a car nowadays without automatic front back middle side up down force-predictive intelligently triggered nitrogen-filled carbon-neutral foam-cushioned airbags and all that jazz.
Yes, I know a lot of this is regulatory and that the NHTSA wouldn't let you build a car nowadays without automatic front back middle side up down force-predictive intelligently triggered nitrogen-filled carbon-neutral foam-cushioned airbags and all that jazz.
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant.
- CEO Nwabudike Morgan
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