Tesla Motors

[Ad Orientem]

Sold my shares in Tesla today after the large increase lately. Might buy into it again if it drops. Otherwise I'm good.

No one ever lost money taking a profit. A lot of people have lost money when forgetting that.

[Greg]

Sold my shares in Tesla today after the large increase lately. Might buy into it again if it drops. Otherwise I'm good.

No one ever lost money taking a profit. A lot of people have lost money when forgetting that.

Indeed. I'm happy with my performance with it. Held it around 16 months and had a little over 100% return during that time. If only I held it in a non-taxable account!

[dualstow]

"announcement tomorrow" says the official TSLA tweet.

[dualstow]

TESLA is up 24% this morning.
The good news is that I bought in yesterday. The bad news is that I bought all of 15 shares as part of a long-term dollar-cost-avg-in. :-D
Oh well, it's going to be a wild ride anyway.

[Greg]

Looks like I chose a wrong time to sell back when I thought $54 was high hah hindsight...

[dualstow]

Looks like I chose a wrong time to sell back when I thought $54 was high hah hindsight...

Yah, but it could get cut in half tomorrow. I think you made a prudent move, Greg.

[melveyr]

I have a couple of friends who have been super bearish on the stock. Good thing they didn't short it! I have no idea how to value companies at this stage in their growth... Although perhaps the stock market doesn't know either 

[dualstow]

BTW, Greg, I sold my Boeing shares at a small loss when I heard about the 787's battery problems. Would have had a nice profit if I'd held on a few weeks. You never know.

[Greg]

Still though, what the hell is Tesla doing? haha. This looks like Irrational Exuberence. They only posted 12 cents a share, for a P/E of around 670. I sold at the wrong time apparently but there is no way I would buy back in now. I was trying to sell all of my stuff now and wait for it to crash for me to buy back into it again. I might have to wait longer than expected now though hah.

[dualstow]

Like melvey, I have no idea how to evaluate companies like this, companies with (usually) negative earnings. And to paraphrase Vernor Vinge, my brain is like a cricket flitting around in the cathedral of melvey's mind. So I don't even try. Common sense says it has to come back down.

The great thing about indexing is that I can buy a lot of stocks with confidence. If stocks go down, I've got treasuries to hedge my bets and one day I can buy low, again with confidence.

[melveyr]

At this point TSLA might just be undergoing a REALLY fat short squeeze. Can you imagine being short TSLA? I would have nightmares about the stock becoming a microcosm of the tech bubble all over again. If this is true, a lot of shorts still have to cover (40% of the float!) so it could still skyrocket much higher for reasons entirely unrelated to underlying business fundamentals. This one of those rare moments where the higher the price goes the more attractive it gets to the longs because it makes it more likely that the shorts will capitulate and cover. You can throw out the textbooks as far as any concept of an equilibrium with this kind of setup.

[Greg]

At this point TSLA might just be undergoing a REALLY fat short squeeze. Can you imagine being short TSLA? I would have nightmares about the stock becoming a microcosm of the tech bubble all over again. If this is true, a lot of shorts still have to cover (40% of the float!) so it could still skyrocket much higher for reasons entirely unrelated to underlying business fundamentals. This one of those rare moments where the higher the price goes the more attractive it gets to the longs because it makes it more likely that the shorts will capitulate and cover. You can throw out the textbooks as far as any concept of an equilibrium with this kind of setup.

This is the kind of stuff where I feel like I should take some of the cash that I just took out from selling and buy some more stock again. But as soon as I do that we reach the top.

[Greg]

TESLA is up 24% this morning.
The good news is that I bought in yesterday. The bad news is that I bought all of 15 shares as part of a long-term dollar-cost-avg-in. :-D
Oh well, it's going to be a wild ride anyway.

Any idea when you'd sell dualstow? You've been having a great run up lately. In the past week you've made as much as I did in a year hah.

[Ad Orientem]

I swear, I'm not making this up...

North Carolina May Ban Tesla Sales to Prevent "Unflair Competition"

[rocketdog]

Consumer Reports scores Tesla 99 out of 100:

The Tesla Model S Is The Best Car We've Ever Seen

[dualstow]

TESLA is up 24% this morning.
The good news is that I bought in yesterday. The bad news is that I bought all of 15 shares as part of a long-term dollar-cost-avg-in. :-D
Oh well, it's going to be a wild ride anyway.

Any idea when you'd sell dualstow? You've been having a great run up lately. In the past week you've made as much as I did in a year hah.

I refer you back to the number of shares I bought.  Percentagewise, it's pretty amazing. I've never had a 52% gain in a week before.
Dollarwise, it's so small that the answer is never. I will never sell the shares. They'll probably go to my wife or nephew in 2070 or whenever I croak.

[Gumby]

I will never sell the shares. They'll probably go to my wife or nephew in 2070 or whenever I croak.

I once said that about my AAPL shares that I bought at $9/share. Then when everyone started talking about how AAPL was on the verge of becoming the world's biggest company, I decided it was time to sell my shares after a 2,500% gain (i.e. I figured, how do you do better than that?) I just got tired of riding the roller coaster — even though it mostly only went up.

After I sold, it tripled (and then tanked). And the worst part is that I never put that much money into it to begin with. I would have done better by just putting all my money into the PP. That's when I realized that there is no way, for me, to win with picking stocks — even if I literally pick the world's greatest stock.

I think if you truly want to hold on to it forever, it might help to find a way to not ever watch it. Otherwise, it could just become a source of stress

[rocketdog]

I will never sell the shares. They'll probably go to my wife or nephew in 2070 or whenever I croak.

Gosh, I hope I live to see 2070!

[dualstow]

Well, I gave myself a round 100 years. Didn't want to lowball it. :-)
Besides, Elon Musk will probably have invented a supercharged liver for me by then.

[dualstow]

I once said that about my AAPL shares that I bought at $9/share. Then when everyone started talking about how AAPL was on the verge of becoming the world's biggest company, I decided it was time to sell my shares after a 2,500% gain ...

ah yes, wasn't that your famous "fruit company" post? :-)

[rocketdog]

dualstow, not to get off-topic here but you look different somehow.  Have you lost weight? 

[AdamA]

After I sold, it tripled (and then tanked). And the worst part is that I never put that much money into it to begin with. I would have done better by just putting all my money into the PP. That's when I realized that there is no way, for me, to win with picking stocks — even if I literally pick the world's greatest stock.

So true.

Even when you hit a home run you have to have a lot of money in play to make it worth the effort.
The more at stake, the more psychologically challenging not to second guess.

[dualstow]

dualstow, not to get off-topic here but you look different somehow.  Have you lost weight? 

You mean the most recent avatar before this one?

[rocketdog]

dualstow, not to get off-topic here but you look different somehow.  Have you lost weight? 

You mean the most recent avatar before this one?

Yes.

[dualstow]

It was a good still but didn't translate well as a tiny avatar.