Dell: 14 Years and 0% Return

A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

Post Reply
User avatar
MediumTex
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 9096
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 11:47 pm
Contact:

Dell: 14 Years and 0% Return

Post by MediumTex » Tue May 22, 2012 3:56 pm

In the last 14 years Dell has been a remarkably bad investment.

Over this period of time hundreds of millions of people around the world have bought computers and Dell shareholders have managed to benefit from this secular trend to the tune of 0% returns.  The stock today is trading at 1998 levels.

That really sucks.  If I was a Dell shareholder I would be annoyed.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
User avatar
craigr
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 2540
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 9:26 pm

Re: Dell: 14 Years and 0% Return

Post by craigr » Tue May 22, 2012 4:04 pm

But I thought stocks were the only investment you needed to own in a portfolio and were less risky the longer you held them?

BTW. Not to pick on my alma mater Cisco. But their share price has done about the same.
Last edited by craigr on Tue May 22, 2012 4:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
kka
Full Member
Full Member
Posts: 73
Joined: Mon May 10, 2010 12:46 pm

Re: Dell: 14 Years and 0% Return

Post by kka » Tue May 22, 2012 7:51 pm

Although over the last 20, neither has been too shabby (looks like about 35% and 33% CAGR -- but those first 8-10 years were more like 60% CAGR, a sure sign that future returns would have to be much lower, and should give today's Apple investors pause).

Image
Last edited by kka on Tue May 22, 2012 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reub
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3158
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2011 5:44 pm

Re: Dell: 14 Years and 0% Return

Post by Reub » Tue May 22, 2012 8:53 pm

What? You mean that buy and hold didn't work? I thought that was the holy grail?

Craig, I'd be curious to hear more about your background and how you got so smart.  :)
Last edited by Reub on Tue May 22, 2012 9:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
craigr
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 2540
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 9:26 pm

Re: Dell: 14 Years and 0% Return

Post by craigr » Wed May 23, 2012 2:13 am

Reub wrote: What? You mean that buy and hold didn't work? I thought that was the holy grail?
I tend to think that buy, hold, diversify and rebalance is the holy grail!
Craig, I'd be curious to hear more about your background and how you got so smart.  :)
I think this quote (attributed to many) summarized it best:

"I am a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it."
Last edited by craigr on Wed May 23, 2012 2:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
shoestring
Full Member
Full Member
Posts: 68
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2012 7:45 pm

Re: Dell: 14 Years and 0% Return

Post by shoestring » Wed May 23, 2012 8:27 am

In hindsight (always 20 20 vision with hindsight) it is apparent that much of what Dell does went from revolutionary to commodity in a terrible hurry.

This is why I am not a stock picker.
Post Reply