LEAPS PP

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AdamA
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by AdamA »

Storm wrote: What an interesting strategy, Adam.  I wonder also how well it would work to do it on a shorter term basis, like say 3 month at the money call options.  Of course, the tax efficiency is nowhere near as good as your strategy, but the bonus is that you don't have to pay the premium for LEAPS.
Storm--

PP options strategies are interesting.

I think they can be a lot of fun as long as only small amounts of money are involved.  It's more like going to the racetrack than it is investing. 

One thing that is fun to do is to pick whatever asset class is getting ragged on the most in the financial media and buy a short term call on it. 

The reasons I chose LEAPS over a shorter term expiration are 1. taxes, and 2. b/c I believe that the majority of the time value of an option (like 3/4ths) is lost after the 3 month mark. 

So if you have months left when you're rolling over your calls, you can mitigate some of the risk that might occur if you waited until closer to expiration and then something dramatic happened (b/c your options would at least have some time value left to cushion the blow from any intrinsic value lost). 

May help the aircraft not to shake itself apart as rapidly.  Also probably a good idea to use deep in the money options, if you can afford it. 

For the record, I suspect that this strategy would probably have some impressive gains at times, but I doubt that it would perform much better than the regular PP...at least enough better to justify the downside volatility.
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by TripleB »

Adam1226 wrote: Since I started this 5 days ago, it's up 16.6%.
If I were you, I'd cash out at 16.6% return in 5 days, count myself a winner, and not look back. You made a huge gain in the VP for the year, and if it takes you another 12 months to find another worthwhile short-term speculative strategy to try, you are still a winner.
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by MediumTex »

TripleB wrote:
Adam1226 wrote: Since I started this 5 days ago, it's up 16.6%.
If I were you, I'd cash out at 16.6% return in 5 days, count myself a winner, and not look back. You made a huge gain in the VP for the year, and if it takes you another 12 months to find another worthwhile short-term speculative strategy to try, you are still a winner.
I think he just set up the portfolio for tracking purposes.
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by AdamA »

MediumTex wrote:
TripleB wrote:
Adam1226 wrote: Since I started this 5 days ago, it's up 16.6%.
If I were you, I'd cash out at 16.6% return in 5 days, count myself a winner, and not look back. You made a huge gain in the VP for the year, and if it takes you another 12 months to find another worthwhile short-term speculative strategy to try, you are still a winner.
I think he just set up the portfolio for tracking purposes.
Correct.  This is just an experiment.  No real money.
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by Verto »

We are in an interesting time. I am glad that we have so many people paper testing interesting strategies right now.
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by mkareti »

does OptionsXpress or TOS or Options Monster back testing capability for such LEAPS portfolio?
I have been thinking of such a strategy of  buying LEAPS esp. when the ETF  is above > 100 or 200 day Moving Avg.
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by Storm »

Adam,

How are your LEAPs doing so far after today (Monday, 8/8/11)?  I started a Virtual account on OptionsXPress over the weekend and I'm testing 2 theoretical portfolios:
  • Roughly $25K of Jan/2013 maturity at the money call options, split equally between SPY/GLD/TLT.
  • Roughly $10K of Nov/2011 maturity at the money call options, split equally between SPY/GLD/TLT.
The problem is that all of my orders went through at market open today so my buy-in is MUCH different than yours.

I'll let you know how this goes!
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by Storm »

Definitely considering an investing strategy that involves monthly rolling Options purchases.  Here is the basic strategy:

Take $10K each month and purchase equal 3 month at the money call options on each of SPY/GLD/TLT.

$120K invested each year, some months you may lose it all, others may pay handsomely.

My big question is entry/exit strategies - can anyone give me an idea of what a good time to enter/exit the market is?  Obviously you don't want to do it on the 1st of the month every month, as that might just be too predictable.  Maybe enter the market randomly on a day in the 1st week of the month.

Exit strategy - this is tricky - if you have great appreciation in an option should you sell early, or hold until maturity?  This type of portfolio needs some serious risk analysis chops to maximize potential profit.

I'm a total options noobie so I appreciate any help here.
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by stone »

I'm grossly ignorant about options and I don't think I'll ever buy any but the Jesse Cafe Americain website makes the case that gold options expiry dates have a big influence on the short term cycling of the gold price. If you believe that argument, then I guess you would only hold your options PP from each gold expiry date until say ten days before the next (am I in a muddle about this?). Are most of the gold options bought by people who have an almost all bond portfolio and just want some inflation insurance?
Clive mentioned something before about Nassim Taleb recommending using a portfolio consisting of 80% cash, 20% options. I guess though that if we have a succession of 1982 type Volcker rate hikes, the losses from the options will steadily munch through the cash. I suppose though that is very unlikely to happen.
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by Storm »

I suppose with options that are "in the money", yet some weeks out from exercise date, it may be wise to employ a strategy of selling some percentage, say 30%, or selling enough to cover your costs, then keeping the remainder, or setting a stop loss on the rest to protect your winnings.

If you're a math geek there is a lot of potential to maximize profit by timing your exit appropriately, and exiting in stages.

Similarly, Clive's theories around stock entry strategies might be ideal for options trading as well.
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by AdamA »

Storm wrote: Adam,

How are your LEAPs doing so far after today (Monday, 8/8/11)? 
25.5% since 1 Aug.
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by AdamA »

Storm wrote: I suppose with options that are "in the money", yet some weeks out from exercise date, it may be wise to employ a strategy of selling some percentage, say 30%, or selling enough to cover your costs, then keeping the remainder, or setting a stop loss on the rest to protect your winnings.

If you're a math geek there is a lot of potential to maximize profit by timing your exit appropriately, and exiting in stages.
Storm--

At the risk of sound paternalistic, keep in mind that options trading is hard.  You don't just have to be right about direction.  You have to be right about direction and timing. 

In the end, I have a feeling that these strategies you and I are discussing will turn out to be highly volatile, and will probably not yield much more than the good ol' PP in the end...maybe even less after taxes and commissions. 

Having said that, it is a lot of fun...
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by Storm »

Adam1226 wrote: At the risk of sound paternalistic, keep in mind that options trading is hard.  You don't just have to be right about direction.  You have to be right about direction and timing. 

In the end, I have a feeling that these strategies you and I are discussing will turn out to be highly volatile, and will probably not yield much more than the good ol' PP in the end...maybe even less after taxes and commissions. 

Having said that, it is a lot of fun...
I'm with you there - any one of us I'm sure would love to sell the options now and pocket the cool 25% in 1 week return.  Of course if you did that you'd probably leave money on the table - or maybe not.

I was trying to make a system out of it (similar to the PP) where you could take market timing out of the equation, by treating it like an "options" ladder, although you are completely correct in that timing is difficult and may not be able to be made into a system.
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by AdamA »

Storm wrote: I was trying to make a system out of it (similar to the PP) where you could take market timing out of the equation, by treating it like an "options" ladder, although you are completely correct in that timing is difficult and may not be able to be made into a system.
I think that the best way to do this is to sell the options a reasonable amount of time before expiration.  The 3 month mark is where they really start to lose their time value. 

Another idea to keep the volatility low is to buy deep in the money options...of course, this gives you less leverage. 
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by Storm »

$10K worth of at the money GLD/SPY/TLT Nov/11 calls is up 32.05% since Monday.
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by AdamA »

Storm wrote: $10K worth of at the money GLD/SPY/TLT Nov/11 calls is up 32.05% since Monday.
Wow.  Keep us updated.  I'm very curious about this. 

I've been thinking about it, and I think that MT is absolutely correct.  The problems will occur when the market is relatively flat.  My bet is that the strategy makes you a fortune once every few years, and then slowly loses it for during sideways markets, when all of your options expire worthless.

Probably a good idea to keep some portion of this money in cash.  If you have your money tied up in calls, and they all expire out of the money, it might not be too much fun. 
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by Storm »

Storm wrote: $10K worth of at the money GLD/SPY/TLT Nov/11 calls is up 32.05% since Monday.
34.55% up at close Wednesday.

I think you're right, Adam and MT, about during periods of sideways markets having terrible returns, but have you ever known a period in time when all 3 assets did almost nothing?  I guess the last couple of weeks have given us much greater volatility than most time periods, so I may be getting extremely biased results, but I'm wishing I had real money on the line right now...
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by AdamA »

Storm wrote: Have you ever known a period in time when all 3 assets did almost nothing? 
So, that's the part I'm not sure about. 

They don't have to do nothing for you to lose money.  Just close enough to nothing so that your options expire. 

There could be big moves in between, but if your underlying security goes way up and then comes right back down at
about expiration time, then you'll lose.  What the chances are of this happening to all 3 assets are I'm not sure, but 2/3, probably pretty high. 

Still...if you buy a little deeper into the money and sell while there's still some time value left, you could probably tweak it enough so that you'd live to roll the dice a few more times.
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by Storm »

I'm going to try tweaking my test options strategy to include the following:

40% GLD
40% SPY
20% EDV

The reason for the difference is that we're only using TLT/EDV as a hedge against SPY tanking, and EDV gives larger price moves.  Options holders aren't entitled to any dividends anyway, so perhaps it makes more sense to use EDV or zero coupon bonds for this purpose.  MT previously determined EDV has roughly 3/2 the price fluctuation as TLT, so it seems like changing the allocation from 33% to 20% might give you enough protection while allowing you to juice the returns from SPY/GLD a little more.

Any thoughts, Adam?
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by AdamA »

Storm wrote: Any thoughts, Adam?
Sounds like a good idea except...you can't buy options on EDV, as far as I know...
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by Storm »

That I didn't know...  I am probably going to pass on trying this with real money as my $10K Nov11 options have pared some of their gains and are now back at 19.3% as of writing this.

I also started a test of Dec11 options that are currently underwater 2.04%.

It seems way too volatile and requires too much market timing.  Buying in on the wrong day you can end up with options that will never be in the black.  But, it was fun to watch especially during a market meltdown.

I think one way you could play options well in a VP is like MediumTex did - if you know some big event is going to happen like on August 2nd, just make a bet the week before.
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by AdamA »

Storm wrote: I think one way you could play options well in a VP is like MediumTex did - if you know some big event is going to happen like on August 2nd, just make a bet the week before.
...or, if you know the market is going to go up, buy a call.  Then, right before it goes down, sell the call and buy a put.  ;D

I don't blame you for passing on the options thing with real money.  If it can go up 19% in a week, it can come down just as fast.  Definitely involves some degree of timing.  I will not be using this strategy either.

Fun to think about, though. 
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by AdamA »

Are you guys fans of the Dogs of the Dow?

How do you think a LEAPS strategy would work with them?
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by AdamA »

Adam1226 wrote: I just setup a virtual trading account at OptionsExpress.com with the following positions

1/3 SPY Jan 2013 Call
1/3 GLD Jan 2013 Call
1/3 TLT Jan 2013 Call

(all at the money options).

My plan would be to rebalance in one year, selling losers with one day left in the year, and winners the next day for tax reasons.  I'd then rebuy the options with later expiration dates.

Does anyone think that such a plan could work?

Note, this is a virtual account and contains no real money. 

I didn't use a cash ETF b/c none of them have LEAPS as far as I can tell.

It's up 88% since Aug 1st, for anyone interested.
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Re: LEAPS PP

Post by clacy »

Interesting, thanks for the update.  I think using LEAPS for your variable portion would be an interesting way to stay within the framework of the HBPP (all 4 asset classes represented equally) but yet levered up for more significant returns.

Sounds like a great way to put your 10% variable portfolio to work.
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