BelangP - Retirement Planning

A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio

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Hal
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BelangP - Retirement Planning

Post by Hal » Sun Aug 02, 2020 7:30 am

Excellent series.
I wonder if the PP could be viewed as in episode 6, with a (different allocation?) cash component being equivalent to his "cash reserve"?
We would have LT treasuries in addition to his gold/share mix.

1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwP4qoJsShA
2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crT8m0jQsCI
3. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-FbCcxWq7I
4. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZXhukN6oY0
5. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oR58b2RxzQY
6. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0GQ1Gx8YCw
Aussie GoldSmithPP - 25% PMGOLD, 75% VDCO
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Kbg
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Re: BelangP - Retirement Planning

Post by Kbg » Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:24 pm

His “Making the Long Term More Predictable” probably made my top 10 of best ever on finance list...and I’ve read a lot of financial stuff. It’s that good.

I watched the series you posted and scanned some others and ran into the above.
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vnatale
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Re: BelangP - Retirement Planning

Post by vnatale » Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:30 pm

Kbg wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:24 pm
His “Making the Long Term More Predictable” probably made my top 10 of best ever on finance list...and I’ve read a lot of financial stuff. It’s that good.

I watched the series you posted and scanned some others and ran into the above.
THIS is it? https://www.sgtreport.com/2019/07/makin ... edictable/

NOT something to read?

Did a search for it on Amazon and nothing came up.

Vinny
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PP67
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Re: BelangP - Retirement Planning

Post by PP67 » Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:27 am

Thanks for the link! The whole time I was watching the video I was wondering what the PP (or GB) allocation might look like on a “Wealth Multiplier” chart.
Tyler if you think this is might be another good way to look at investment strategies (and there isn’t already something similar on Portfolio Charts) perhaps it would be a good addition to your brilliant site.
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Kbg
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Re: BelangP - Retirement Planning

Post by Kbg » Mon Aug 03, 2020 2:19 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:30 pm
Kbg wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:24 pm
His “Making the Long Term More Predictable” probably made my top 10 of best ever on finance list...and I’ve read a lot of financial stuff. It’s that good.

I watched the series you posted and scanned some others and ran into the above.
THIS is it? https://www.sgtreport.com/2019/07/makin ... edictable/

NOT something to read?

Did a search for it on Amazon and nothing came up.

Vinny
I found it on YouTube, but it looks to be the same. It's a 20ish minute video. The ST vs. LT correlation and variability of asset classes was what I thought was so unique.

Philosophically, he's a bit diametric to HBPP in terms of being able to predict things. He definitely assumes the future will be somewhat like the past which explicitly is baked into regression analysis.
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Mark Leavy
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Re: BelangP - Retirement Planning

Post by Mark Leavy » Mon Aug 03, 2020 3:37 pm

I haven't done any serious analysis, but it seems to me that predicting based on regression falls into the "picking up pennies in front of a steam roller" category.

I imagine that with the right tools you can get the predictability to work often enough that you are gaining an edge most of the time. It feels good to make a few extra bucks, most of the time. My worry is that infrequent, large 'unpredictable' events will occur just often enough to wipe out the cumulative small gains.

Again, I'm sure that with some careful thought you could protect yourself from that, but I wonder if it is actually net positive in the long term.

Just musing.
Mark
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Kbg
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Re: BelangP - Retirement Planning

Post by Kbg » Mon Aug 03, 2020 7:51 pm

I don't know any serious investing technique that doesn't use some type of quantitative analysis. The analysis he demonstrated noted a couple of things.

Non-correlation of stocks and (strike though original "bonds" replace with) "gold" and that they tend to run counter to each other both in the short and long term. (nothing new there, just a different way of going about it)

The correlation of stocks and bonds differs from short term to long term, in the ST they are not or are negatively correlated and in the LT they are highly correlated. Upon further reflection from yesterday, this isn't really knew but he presented the data in a way that was really insightful.

The reduction in variability of results over the LT is greatly reduced depending on the asset mix and the just above statement...this was hugely insightful but also not new really. If on Tyler's site or in other PP discussions one has noted the higher safe withdrawal rates one can take with the PP it's really the same thing.

So at the end of the day, directly or inferred, the presentation had nothing new. However, at least for me it drove some concepts home in a much stronger fashion than my brain had previously absorbed/understood the implications of. Bernstein's book "Ages of the Investor" was probably the last book before this video that was major mind/understanding altering in a good way.
Last edited by Kbg on Mon Aug 03, 2020 11:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Mark Leavy
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Re: BelangP - Retirement Planning

Post by Mark Leavy » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:19 pm

That was a good synopsis - and makes sense.
Mark
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