Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:11 pm
There is a reason I posted this in the VP section. I am not planning on abandoning my HBPP. But approaching bonds on a speculative basis, the only scenario I see for their outperforming, is a deflationary depression.
Yeah, that would probably be the best case scenario for LTTs.
I am (not even for one second) going to assume that a deflationary depression can't happen. Even massive money printing might not cause inflation if the collapse in aggregate demand and credit is really that bad. There's the question of "animal spirits" and people's propensity to spend too. Additionally, debt deleveraging, aging demographics, and technological unemployment are deflationary/disinflationary forces we have to contend with.
Japan is a prime example of a country unable to get any kind of inflation going for a whole generation despite having the same central bank bag o' tricks that we do.
Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:11 pm
There is a reason I posted this in the VP section. I am not planning on abandoning my HBPP. But approaching bonds on a speculative basis, the only scenario I see for their outperforming, is a deflationary depression.
...Japan is a prime example of a country unable to get any kind of inflation going for a whole generation despite having the same central bank bag o' tricks that we do.
Japan is a near unique example for a number of reasons. Their aging population and demographic decline being high on the list. Their debt is also largely held internally, which is unusual among developed nations.
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