A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio
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senecaaa
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by senecaaa » Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:12 am
Has anyone seen this before?
https://taylorpearson.me/thedragon/
It mentions it has a similar philosophy to the PP:
The Permanent Portfolio is a more easily implemented approach with a similar philosophy that uses equal amounts of stocks, bonds, gold and cash. Similar to the Dragon portfolio, it is designed to do well in any market environment: Growth (stocks do well), Recession (bonds do well), inflation (gold does well) and deflation (cash does well).
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pmward
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by pmward » Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:33 am
Yes, but you really can't do the dragon portfolio by yourself. You really need to be an accredited investor with access to hedge funds if you want a good long vol and trend fund. Long vol especially has a large cost of carry, so you really need to have a good active fund for this or you're going to eat it. Just buying the VIX ETF you're going to go broke, haha. It's not random chance that the creator of this portfolio just so happens to have a very good long vol hedge fund.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:57 pm
pmward wrote: ↑Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:33 am
Yes, but you really can't do the dragon portfolio by yourself. You really need to be an accredited investor with access to hedge funds if you want a good long vol and trend fund. Long vol especially has a large cost of carry, so you really need to have a good active fund for this or you're going to eat it. Just buying the VIX ETF you're going to go broke, haha. It's not random chance that the creator of this portfolio just so happens to have a very good long vol hedge fund.
Before I took away the Schwab keys, my mom was long VXX, and she was just shy of 90 years old. I scolded her, "Jesus, Mom, why are you long VXX!?" I had to explain the decay thing to her. Now she's 90 and 100% in Treasuries, Agencies, Cash, and Gold.
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pmward
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by pmward » Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:16 pm
ochotona wrote: ↑Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:57 pm
pmward wrote: ↑Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:33 am
Yes, but you really can't do the dragon portfolio by yourself. You really need to be an accredited investor with access to hedge funds if you want a good long vol and trend fund. Long vol especially has a large cost of carry, so you really need to have a good active fund for this or you're going to eat it. Just buying the VIX ETF you're going to go broke, haha. It's not random chance that the creator of this portfolio just so happens to have a very good long vol hedge fund.
Before I took away the Schwab keys, my mom was long VXX, and she was just shy of 90 years old. I scolded her, "Jesus, Mom, why are you long VXX!?" I had to explain the decay thing to her. Now she's 90 and 100% in Treasuries, Agencies, Cash, and Gold.
LOL. Yeah going long VXX is like a short ETF, it's great to do tactically, but costs way too much to do it in a buy and hold fashion. Passive is not the way to go for long term long vol.
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Vil
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by Vil » Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:28 am
pmward wrote: ↑Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:16 pm
Yeah going long VXX is like a short ETF, it's great to do tactically, but costs way too much to do it in a buy and hold fashion. Passive is not the way to go for long term long vol.
And what's your view on the other side of it - referring SVXY / ZIV - can we state all of the above, but just the opposite of it (i.e. long term holding, more suitable for buy and hold) ? In times of calm markets (read "endless prosperity" ) would that outperform the broad market ?