Combining GB with spread trend

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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by pmward » Sat May 09, 2020 9:32 am

Weekend watching, another great video from Ciovacco this week and worth watching specifically because it is a very different viewpoint from what you will hear everywhere else. It's always good to look at the tape from both sides: "It sounds crazy and irrational, but history says the low may be in and stocks could continue to rally": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQvz_r73d2Q
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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by pmward » Mon May 11, 2020 12:08 pm

Today's chart of the day Russell 1000 growth vs value spread chart. If on Feb 19 the day of the market top someone went long R1K growth and short R1K value they would have made a 17.4% gain during a period that stocks as a whole took a beating. Value appears to be dead with no sign of life.

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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by pmward » Wed May 13, 2020 8:50 am

Today's chart of the day is the daily chart for GLD. Look on the right at how beautiful of a tight consolidation this is making. This is a textbook pennant formation. GLD is building energy for a big move. Pennant's can break out or down, but pennants with a straight line on one of the sides tends to break in the opposite direction of the flat line. I've heard people refer to the flat line as the "launching pad". So GLD is likely to break to the upside. If anyone has been sitting on their hands about buying gold, down towards the bottom of that flat line about $158 is a good place to put a GTC limit order followed by a stop order below the 50 day SMA about ~154. This is a very low risk high reward setup. Also, if we never get back down to 158 and it just runs, an alternate buying point would be as soon as we get a close above the top downward sloping line, with the same stop loss a bit below both the bottom line of the pennant AND the 50 day SMA.

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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by jhogue » Wed May 13, 2020 3:53 pm

I hope you and your charts are right.

I stopped "sitting on my hands" a couple of days ago and bought some AAAU in taxable with cash I had been holding for some time as part of a portfolio rebalance.
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by pmward » Wed May 13, 2020 4:01 pm

jhogue wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 3:53 pm
I hope you and your charts are right.

I stopped "sitting on my hands" a couple of days ago and bought some AAAU in taxable with cash I had been holding for some time as part of a portfolio rebalance.
Obviously there are no guarantees, which is why I listed a recommended stop-loss price in case it breaks down. But from a probability standpoint, it's looking highly likely that gold gets another leg up from here. Now the timing is a bit tricky as it will be a few more weeks until that pennant formation comes to a point. Usually these formations break out prior to the point (it could break out tomorrow), but sometimes these consolidations wait until the very last moment to resolve, haha.
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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by pmward » Thu May 14, 2020 10:06 am

Today's chart is what I like to call the most important chart in the world. This is the USD chart. Once again, just like the gold chart yesterday, look at how it is coiling up for a big move. Unlike gold however, this is in a triangle formation. Triangles are not biased to the up or the downside. They can break either way, so you really have to be patient and wait and see. Maybe a slight clue in the RSI though, if you you at the RSI at the bottom you will see since the first of May even though price has been in this tight range, it has been setting higher highs and higher lows on relative strength. Could this be a clue that the USD may actually break to the upside, even after all the stimulus??? Definitely a chart I find very and interesting and I'm keeping an eye on. The USD breaking out could rain on both stocks and precious metals parade.
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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by pmward » Thu May 14, 2020 12:35 pm

pmward wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 4:01 pm
Usually these formations break out prior to the point (it could break out tomorrow)
Looks like that wound up to be the case. I certainly had no idea it would really happen "tomorrow", but it did. Nice volume on the breakout too, especially since we are still intraday. Next thing to watch is that resistance area overhead I highlighted. If we can break above that, then we will officially have another higher high and higher low in place.
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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by pmward » Thu May 14, 2020 12:54 pm

pmward wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 12:48 pm
Also of note, remember how I said last night that the bears failed in dragging TLT down and that it meant that the bulls were going to try to close the open gaps? What happened today? Gap 1 closed. Gap 2 is still open. $167.16 is the number it has to get to in order to close that gap.
Also, see this comment from May 7. TLT has now closed that second gap. This is how trading with technical analysis works. These patterns like this happen over and over and over again. They are not 100%, but they happen often enough to turn a substantial profit if you know how to manage your money/risk. The money/risk management ironically is harder for most people to get down than learning technical analysis itself is.
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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by pmward » Fri May 15, 2020 9:07 am

pmward wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 11:32 am
Today's chart of the day, SLV:GLD spread. This is the chart that is basically the performance you would get if you were long SLV and short GLD. This is a good way to look at the relative strength of one asset vs another. This is a 6 month daily chart. Worth keeping in mind is that this has been going down for many years now. What do we have here? Looks like a bull flag forming. That's an approximate measured move of what would happen if/when we break out above it. To me, I'm starting to get the feeling that SLV is starting to lead GLD. If this resolves to the upside, it would put in both a higher high and a higher low on the chart, for a brand new up trend. Also, I'm not a huge Elliot wave guy... but they do say that the third wave is the longest and strongest wave generally. So if this breaks, it would be a wave 3. Also of note, RSI is positive, setting a higher high, and increasing even though price has been in a sideways trend. This is a bullish divergence. So both ways of looking at the relative strength of SLV:GLD are looking promising.
For today's chart of the day we are going to check back in with the SLV:GLD spread. See my above commentary on this chart from May 8. What do we have here? Remember that "bull flag" formation, where I drew the potential breakout? Look at how that is resolving. Funny how that works, huh? Also, note how this is now above its 50 day SMA and RSI is continuing to rip to the upside, and is now over 60 (for those that don't know 60 RSI is considered the ceiling in a bear market, so getting above 60 is a bull market confirmation). How you doin' SLV??? Now I officially get to bump my stop loss up in my SLV position to lock in more gains :)
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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by pmward » Mon May 18, 2020 3:56 pm

Today's chart of the day (probably unsurprisingly) is the S&P 500. We just set another closing higher high today. Although, you can probably already see the point of interest I've highlighted. You can see this resistance area here that we came right into, and then pulled back from. There is an open gap there from 5 March, as well as some points of contention in the Feb/March timeframe. But, more interestingly, is the 200 day SMA is also right here. It's funny how multiple forms of resistance like to congregate together like this, it happens all the time. 200 day SMA is one of those strong universal indicators that every institution has on their charts, and does trade off of, so it tends to act as strong support/resistance. The bulls scored a field goal today with the higher high, but the real prize, the touchdown, is to get above that 200 day SMA. It's not surprising that we did not get above it in the first shot. We came about 20 cents short of actually touching it today before the sellers came in. But, the longer the market lingers around a resistance level the weaker the level becomes. It slowly chips away at the wall. The easiest way to get above it would be to gap above it. I wouldn't be surprised to see the bulls try to gap above it at some point this week. It's much harder to trade through a strong resistance level like that intraday than it is to gap above it. If we can close the week above that 200 day SMA it would be really hard for me to formulate a bearish technical case for the S&P. The 200 day SMA is that important. Likewise, if we reject at it, it would really put some serious wind in the bears sails. This is *the* signal to watch this week.
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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by pmward » Tue May 19, 2020 1:45 pm

And in today's chart of the day we have QQQ. The Q's just closed the big open gap from 21 Feb. So far the high of the day is 229.77, exactly 2 cents above the gap. Another bullish signal. If they can close above this, the only resistance level left is the all-time highs. I find it very difficult to even consider a bearish stance when the Q's seem to be all but destined for a test of all-time highs in the very near future. Unlike the S&P, the Q's also have breached that important 60 RSI level which is another bull-market confirmation signal. We are also still far from being technically over-bought, so there is still plenty of gas left in the tank for another big leg up in the coming weeks (of course, I'm not saying this will 100% happen, but that it is possible).
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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by pmward » Wed May 20, 2020 12:43 pm

Today we will take another look in on TLT. An interesting thing to note, notice the pennant formation? Lots of these pennants have been in play lately, obviously gold and silver just broke out of pennants just like this with a flat bottom last week. TLT is showing the same pattern. Remember how I've said that a pennant with a flat bottom is a "launching pad". 80% of the time these pennants break out in the opposite direction to the flat line. So what does that mean here? TLT appears to be basing for a breakout. This is definitely something worth keeping on your watch list. I have an opinion (pure opinion here, not backed up by anything) that we will may see some stock market weakness in the June/July timeframe. This chart is currently hinting that is a possibility as well. Likely, if stocks start to see some volatility return TLT will break out of this pattern and make a run for all-time highs. Not saying this will happen, but it is something worth monitoring as TLT could potentially be preparing for a big move. I would recommend waiting for confirmation though before taking on a new position. And if you're in a speculative position currently, a stop loss would be good below that bottom flat line, like $160-161 to give it some space for a fake-out. Also, worth noting that while momentum has obviously been weak (duh, it's in a consolidation) RSI has held in bullish territory. It has not once dipped below 30.

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Also, stop loss moved up again in SLV today, current stop is in the general vicinity of about $15. Guaranteeing more profits. I would like to see us get a pullback/retest of the 200 day SMA and bounce to confirm that as support, that would give me confidence to move my stop up even higher to just below the 200 day SMA. Trailing a stop is a bit more of an art than a science. In a volatile asset like SLV you have to give it some room, as I don't want to get shaken out during normal market volatility.
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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by pmward » Thu May 21, 2020 11:00 am

pmward wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 12:43 pm
Also, stop loss moved up again in SLV today, current stop is in the general vicinity of about $15. Guaranteeing more profits. I would like to see us get a pullback/retest of the 200 day SMA and bounce to confirm that as support, that would give me confidence to move my stop up even higher to just below the 200 day SMA. Trailing a stop is a bit more of an art than a science. In a volatile asset like SLV you have to give it some room, as I don't want to get shaken out during normal market volatility.
Today we are going to check back in with SLV. See the quote above from yesterday. I sure did not expect this to happen the next day, lol. These volatile markets move so fast. But if you look we did just this. We went down just below the 200 day SMA, just enough to excite the bears, then the bulls issued them a pie in the face and ripped the price back above the 200 day SMA. Now it is still early in the day so we have to see if this holds of course. On the 15 minute chart though there is a bull flag forming, so it's looking possible we will get another up move. If we close above the 200 day SMA that would give me a lot more confidence. So, as a learning lesson here, when and where would I move my stop loss up? Passing the test does confirm it is support, and there are bulls watching and willing to buy whenever we dip below it. That's a good thing. But, SLV is also a volatile instrument so I do not want to put my stop loss too close to current price. So, what I would do is watch for the next higher high. If/when we get above 16.44 that would confirm a new higher high and higher low. At that time I would move my stop loss up to probably ~1% below the 200 day SMA (once again to account for volatility and another fake out break down like this morning). At that time I would also look at other support areas that would be in the area near the 200 day SMA, as having it below multiple support levels if possible is a good thing.

Also of note, I did add on to my SLV, GDX, and GLD positions this morning as all 3 tested support this morning. I've always been more of a breakout trader than a support bounce trader, I'm trying to expand my horizons a bit with a new technique that is a bit more fitting in the current market environment.

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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by Vil » Mon May 25, 2020 8:41 am

pmward wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 11:00 am
I'm trying to expand my horizons a bit with a new technique
Having said that ... Master Pm :D , I was having in my (mid-term) TODO to ask you something.. the right time just came ;D So, it might sound you not quite a wise, but I am relying a lot on trailing stop loss orders those days. Rationale behind is the following - once I jump on the train (that's home brewed combination of HA candles, stochastics and MFI and definitely not the grail), I rely a lot on trailing stop losses to exit (as I said - especially those days).. Again, it might sound not really wise to do it all the time, but those days as I am generally lacking the time to contemplate a lot on support/resistance levels (Fibs I am not a fan of), etc. I just let it run ... Normally, for my day trading adventures I start with slightly generous 2 ATR.. then, if the trade gains traction I am decreasing it.. What's your thought on the slack of the trail ? As usual - thanks.
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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by pmward » Mon May 25, 2020 11:17 am

Vil wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 8:41 am
pmward wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 11:00 am
I'm trying to expand my horizons a bit with a new technique
Having said that ... Master Pm :D , I was having in my (mid-term) TODO to ask you something.. the right time just came ;D So, it might sound you not quite a wise, but I am relying a lot on trailing stop loss orders those days. Rationale behind is the following - once I jump on the train (that's home brewed combination of HA candles, stochastics and MFI and definitely not the grail), I rely a lot on trailing stop losses to exit (as I said - especially those days).. Again, it might sound not really wise to do it all the time, but those days as I am generally lacking the time to contemplate a lot on support/resistance levels (Fibs I am not a fan of), etc. I just let it run ... Normally, for my day trading adventures I start with slightly generous 2 ATR.. then, if the trade gains traction I am decreasing it.. What's your thought on the slack of the trail ? As usual - thanks.
I'm not a fan of arbitrary percent based trailing stops. I always trail a stop but I always use support levels, moving averages, average true range, etc to help me find the proper level. The timeframe of the trade also helps determine this. For instance, if I'm looking for a big multi-month to multi-year trade I will place my stops based on the weekly chart. If I'm looking for a couple week to couple month trade, I'll place my stops based on the daily chart. If I'm looking for minutes, hours, or days I'll go to different intra-day charts (1 hour, 15 min, and 10 min are my favs). Support and resistance is the most effective technical indicator out there. Large institutions, hedge funds, prop desks, etc make up 90% of the volume out there and they all trade using support and resistance levels. They work because of this. It's not magic, it's just that most of the volume out there uses these levels to trade (remember each timeframe chart has different support/resistance levels too). These support levels include major pivots, fib retracement levels, popular moving average lines, gaps, break up/down candles, trend lines, patterns, etc. So my best advice to you would be to really learn how to read a candle chart first. This is the most important tool I've found. All you really need to trade effectively is a candle chart and the popular moving averages (20, 50, 200 period SMA's). If you buy at support and sell at resistance, while always keeping a stop below a strong resistance level, you will win way more trades than you lose and minimize the damage in your losses. I find the other indicators to be more confirmation than actual trading indicators. I never place a trade based on an indicator, but I do glance at RSI, spread charts, and PPO/Macd for general confirmation/divergence signals as well as for quickly narrowing down a large pool of potential trades down to the strongest or weakest depending if I'm looking long or short respectively.

My favorite technique in the past was buying a breakout of resistance, and placing a stop below. Lately I'm trying to buy support, and once again placing a stop below. In this new strategy it really warrants finding a trade where there are multiple levels of support on multiple timeframes in the same general area. The more reasons for support, the higher the odds it bounces.
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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by Vil » Mon May 25, 2020 11:33 am

pmward wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 11:17 am
I'm not a fan of arbitrary percent based trailing stops.
Not a fan of it either, that'why I mentioned that for day trading I normally use a 2 ATR for the beginning, and as see the trend of the trade is losing momentum, then I decrease the slack of the trail. But you are right about one thing - its all specific setup. Well, regarding chart reading - I know this and that, unfortunately do not have plenty of time to dedicate (and even was considering to stop until I found a bit more time, as I believe it's serious business and should be treated as such, and not as a game).
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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by pmward » Mon May 25, 2020 2:22 pm

Vil wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 11:33 am
pmward wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 11:17 am
I'm not a fan of arbitrary percent based trailing stops.
Not a fan of it either, that'why I mentioned that for day trading I normally use a 2 ATR for the beginning, and as see the trend of the trade is losing momentum, then I decrease the slack of the trail. But you are right about one thing - its all specific setup. Well, regarding chart reading - I know this and that, unfortunately do not have plenty of time to dedicate (and even was considering to stop until I found a bit more time, as I believe it's serious business and should be treated as such, and not as a game).
A course like this is probably up your alley https://mystrategicforecast.com/lazyeminitrader/. It's a 5 hour video course and quickly and efficiently covers all the basics of candlestick charting. It's geared towards day traders as well, which you seem to be interested in (though all of this stuff is applicable to any timeframe, it's just that this guy is a day trader so this specific course looks mostly at intraday charts to show the points). I took it a few years back and really got a lot out of it. The info here is still the foundation of how I look at candlestick charts to this day. Matter of fact I went back through it recently in helping me with my new strategy. It also helps if you follow his daily YouTube market recap videos each day for awhile after taking the course to help really drive the info home. If you plan on trading then it's a price well worth paying to really learn how to read a candlestick chart well. David Frost is one of the best at teaching candlestick charting that I'm aware of. He's also really entertaining, so that helps.
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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by Vil » Tue May 26, 2020 1:04 pm

pmward wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 2:22 pm
A course like this is probably up your alley https://mystrategicforecast.com/lazyeminitrader/.
Thanks pm, I have heard this guy previously. Not aware of how good he is in trading (and teaching), though I do not like his obsessive style of "I am nr.1 ", which is fairly often in the trading field, as you are pretty much aware. Dunno if it's only me, but I do not like that sort of aggressive marketing as receiving 4 emails the next couple of hours following the registration on the site (which is actually the case since I registered on mystrategicforecast.com). Anyway - thanks for the advice/s, always worth.
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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by pmward » Tue May 26, 2020 2:37 pm

Vil wrote:
Tue May 26, 2020 1:04 pm
pmward wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 2:22 pm
A course like this is probably up your alley https://mystrategicforecast.com/lazyeminitrader/.
Thanks pm, I have heard this guy previously. Not aware of how good he is in trading (and teaching), though I do not like his obsessive style of "I am nr.1 ", which is fairly often in the trading field, as you are pretty much aware. Dunno if it's only me, but I do not like that sort of aggressive marketing as receiving 4 emails the next couple of hours following the registration on the site (which is actually the case since I registered on mystrategicforecast.com). Anyway - thanks for the advice/s, always worth.
He is a good trader and teacher. I would not recommend him otherwise. Everywhere these days over emails, I just personally set those I don't want to junk. That being said, there are other places to learn the same stuff. It's really a course in the fundamentals of candlestick charting. It's just that most places will require more time than 5 hours to cover all the info. He really distills a lot of info short and sweet into that course. You'd mentioned time was your biggest constraint and that was why I made the recommendation.
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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by pmward » Wed Jun 03, 2020 11:05 am

Have not posted any charts in awhile, mostly because markets have been boring the last couple of weeks. Pretty much everything has just been consolidating and nothing has really changed or resolved. The only people that have been making any money are day traders. Interesting look today on GDX though. We bounced pretty strongly off the support at ~32.50. If someone is looking to buy GDX this is a good low risk, high reward entry, and you can currently get in at 33.23, and a daily close below 32.50 would be the signal to sell.
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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by pmward » Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:00 pm

Another chart worth checking back in on today. What I refer to as "the most important chart in the world" the USD broke down last week from that triangle pattern I had annotated here a few weeks back, and boy did it ever break down from it! It's been dropping like a rock. I think it's a really good omen for the economy, stocks, and metals going forward that the dollar is falling; let's hope this breakdown continues. I would really love to see us get back down around those March lows, although that 96 area is likely to provide a bit of resistance.
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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by pmward » Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:07 am

Today we are going to look at another breakdown, TLT. You can see the pennant formation I've been tracking for months now broke down a few days ago. We are getting close now to the 50% Fib retracement and the 100 day SMA. I really like the look of that 61.8% Fib retracement having the 200 day SMA a couple dollars below (which will keep getting closer as the days go on), the top of that final big breakdown candle from March in the same area, we have a standard measured move from the formation breakdown hitting the same target area, AND we also have fat round number psychological support at 150. So there are multiple reasons TLT should find support and bounce from this general area, so a very low risk/high reward setup for a swing trade. I'm currently stalking a trade in this area if/when we get down there.

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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by pmward » Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:30 pm

An interesting sentiment indicator here, the Put/Call spread. We are currently back at the same bullish range we were in during the meltup prior to the crash. Historically, it's incredibly rare that the options market gets this bullishly aligned. Over the last couple days I have swapped from bullish on equities to cautious/neutral. This is one of the reasons why.
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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by Vil » Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:52 am

pmward wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:07 am
I'm currently stalking a trade in this area if/when we get down there.
I do not see anything positive yet for TLT. IS04 (in Europe) opened with some -1.5% gap.. Still, it has to fall.. :)
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Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Post by pmward » Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:28 am

Vil wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:52 am
pmward wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:07 am
I'm currently stalking a trade in this area if/when we get down there.
I do not see anything positive yet for TLT. IS04 (in Europe) opened with some -1.5% gap.. Still, it has to fall.. :)
Yeah, I'm looking for a dip buy basically around $150, on a swing trade (looking to play a couple week to couple month bounce). What makes this area attractive to me is I can have a really tight stop to GTFO with minimal losses if I'm wrong. There's so much support there that it is very likely to bounce. AKA my new strategy I'm trying of playing bounces off support instead of just breakouts, so buying weakness instead of buying strength.
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