Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge
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- Ad Orientem
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- europeanwizard
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Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge
Fun times
My VP is about 4% of my PP, and 2% is in Bitcoin. I don't worry about it, really. It's just there in case Bitcoin turns out to be a huge winner in the future.
My VP is about 4% of my PP, and 2% is in Bitcoin. I don't worry about it, really. It's just there in case Bitcoin turns out to be a huge winner in the future.
- dualstow
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Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge
Wow. Bitcoin and gold are really hard to figure out. Impossible to figure out.
- mathjak107
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Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge
it is such a speculation ..... i dabble in gbtc from time to time .
- dualstow
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Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge
Not worth the paper it’s quilted on.
- bitcoininthevp
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Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge
Would have liked for some Bitcoin magic at this time. But it seems that BTC is being pulled down like other assets during this deflationary period.
My understanding is the same thing happened to gold in 2008 crisis. And is happening to gold now?
It would appear to me that gold and bitcoin are poised for huge rallies when the dust settles. Anyone have good resources on this "dust settling period" based on historical anecdotes? How long will asset prices be driven down before all the money printing that is happening reverses the deflation into inflation?
My understanding is the same thing happened to gold in 2008 crisis. And is happening to gold now?
It would appear to me that gold and bitcoin are poised for huge rallies when the dust settles. Anyone have good resources on this "dust settling period" based on historical anecdotes? How long will asset prices be driven down before all the money printing that is happening reverses the deflation into inflation?
Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge
Go to portfoliovisualizer.com, and compare GLD to 3.67% GBTC and the rest CASH. You get a two "portfolios" that have about the same standard deviation, and the same correlation to the US stock market... about zero. What does that backtest mean? Possibly nothing as far as future performance goes, but it tells me this - micro-size your bitcoin allocation. Whatever size you'd devote to a "normal" asset shrink the bitcoin position size by a factor of 27.europeanwizard wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:49 am Fun times
My VP is about 4% of my PP, and 2% is in Bitcoin. I don't worry about it, really. It's just there in case Bitcoin turns out to be a huge winner in the future.
If GBTC gets to $4 (early 2019 levels) I might put 0.5% of the porfolio into it. But it would have to be $4 or lower. I'd really be a buyer at $0.40. I'm not waiting to pull the trigger, in other words. I have alerts set.
- Ad Orientem
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Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge
GLD is currently down not quite 2% YTD, Bitcoin is down about 17% YTD.
- europeanwizard
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- bitcoininthevp
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Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge
You should also consider the premium of GBTC to BTC which can vary wildly. In these markets the premium should be small which is good for a buy. During rallies the premium can be 100%. See: https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/disc ... ium_to_nav
- bitcoininthevp
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Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge
Not a surprise that the smaller more speculative asset gets hit more. Not so much informative about YTD numbers.Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:04 pm GLD is currently down not quite 2% YTD, Bitcoin is down about 17% YTD.
More curious as to how gold and bitcoin will behave moving through this crisis, which seems to be deflationary, and transitioning into what I see as an inevitable highly inflationary environment. AKA does this deflationary period last weeks, months, 18 months? You all might know more about deflationary situations like this have played out in the past?
Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge
Inflation has a lag. We aren't going to switch from deflation to inflation overnight. Inflation likely isn't really possible to become a problem for at least a couple years. Right now, they are still way behind the ball, the "inflation" they are generating isn't enough to even keep things stable.bitcoininthevp wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:56 amNot a surprise that the smaller more speculative asset gets hit more. Not so much informative about YTD numbers.Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:04 pm GLD is currently down not quite 2% YTD, Bitcoin is down about 17% YTD.
More curious as to how gold and bitcoin will behave moving through this crisis, which seems to be deflationary, and transitioning into what I see as an inevitable highly inflationary environment. AKA does this deflationary period last weeks, months, 18 months? You all might know more about deflationary situations like this have played out in the past?