Gyroscopic Investing

I have a lot of research to do first, but the idea keeps nagging at me to buy an airline stock and hold it for a year or 2, or 5. Like Southwest.
Is that nutty? Or does it make sense.
I'd probably buy it 2 to 4 weeks from now.

It did just bounce off the same lows it hit in the Dec 2018 meltdown. From a technical perspective, it looks like it would have been a good purchase last week around that $45 level. Keep an eye on the corona news flow. Remember that these things go "buy the rumor, sell the news", or in cases like this it's the public selling the rumor, and they will in turn likely buy the news regardless what that news flow is.

pmward wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:50 pm or in cases like this it's the public selling the rumor, and they will in turn likely buy the news regardless what that news flow is.

If they're anything like my wife, they're buying way too much rubbing alcohol and toilet paper.

WEB loaded up on some Delta this past week

WEB = Warren Buffett?

Yes

My new Delta shares are worth half what I paid for them. Nothing like buying at the bottom.

Berkshire sells airline stocks
https://onemileatatime.com/warren-buffe ... ne-stocks/

"When we sell something, very often it’s going to be our entire stake. We don’t trim positions. That’s just not the way we approach it any more than if we buy 100% of a business. We’re going to sell it down to 90% or 80%. If we like a business, we’re going to buy as much of it as we can and keep it as long as we can. And when we change our mind we don’t take half measures.”

WEB turned on a dime.

I looked at GDP now and nowcast tonight, yikes. Apparently the market believes the Feds actions are more important than the economic data coming in.

dualstow wrote: ↑Sun May 03, 2020 9:53 am Berkshire sells airline stocks

Branson is a step ahead - selling 'space' stocks to preserve 'airline' - see here

I have a few of those shares as well- see Moonshots thread. Not enough to worry about, though.

Kbg wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 11:24 pm WEB turned on a dime.

I looked at GDP now and nowcast tonight, yikes. Apparently the market believes the Feds actions are more important than the economic data coming in.

That is what the algorithms that buy "believe". That's how they've been programmed.

It is going to be interesting to see how this thing works out. The data is heinously bad, worst ever in my life time. Way exceeding the 2008 financial meltdown.

I suppose there are a zillion possibilities, but let's go with fast snap back or drawn out financial problems that are REALLY going to cause some pain. I'll be spending a bit of time every week looking at the data now.

I should have ignored Warren Buffett and stuck with Southwest. It was by far the better bet.
But, as of yesterday, my Delta/DAL shares are positive. Feels good.

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:08 am I should have ignored Warren Buffett and stuck with Southwest. It was by far the better bet.
But, as of yesterday, my Delta/DAL shares are positive. Feels good.

You mentioned you are doing research in the beginning of the thread, what exactly are you researching (if not a well kept secret) - fundamentals (think of income statements, balance sheets) - or something different ?

Today I made some money with HFG and HEN3.. quite often I do not know (and do not care) what the companies behind are doing. But you appear to be rather serious investor in your VP.

Short answer: fundamentals. I do look at 10-K forms. I don't have a financial background, let alone a deep understanding of economics so my eyes often glaze over. Of the bulk of forum members here, I would say I am in the bottom rung of really understanding the big picture.
Still, I do slog through 10-Ks after coffee.

Longer answer: there are different reasons why a stock might end up in the vp: the dividend increasers were there pre-pp and even pre-bogleheads. Qualcomm is an example of a company that I have long admired and I simply bought it one day when it had plummeted 10%. I had confidence that it would come back, and it did. I literally sold it on the news, news about Apple. So timing can be a factor (never in the pp). QCOM was simply a good beaten-down stock. There's a stock newsletter that I follow for relatives at their request-- it's basically quants. I don't usually buy something for momentum for myself, but sometimes their picks intersect with mine. The moonshots like CRSP, PLUG and Virgin Galactic were pure folly and entertainment, and I never put in more than a few thousand US$ each.

Clear, thanks, appreciate being honest. Not a fan of fundamentals, do not understand them in depth for sure. Tradingview provides really profound information about fundamentals of every company that has a listed ticker (however, not sure about its free version); at least for the untrained eye (as mine) list of company fundamentals looks impressive ...

I don't understand technical charts, candlesticks, double crosses, death skulls. One thing I had wrong -- Harry Browne did acknowledge that it can be useful, but it seems like arcane magic to me.

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Feb 24, 2021 3:04 pm ...seems like arcane magic to me.

+1

Most of it is pure bullsh*t. I keep reading books on technical analysis and actually less than 3-4-5% are worth anything. They keep repeating the same things over and over again, mantras that even do not work and for most of them I am completely sure they are indeed profitable if you just do the opposite of what they are telling you to do. Averaging down - oh yes, it works, no stop losses - oh yes, it works - still 99% the books will tell you just the opposite. Day trading I am doing is mainly to fill gaps of free time and not as serious business and so far the money flow is VP->PP (other static investment beforehand), never the opposite . Anyway, anyone who thinks day trading is like money printing machine is completely brain washed. For retail investor is really hard to get even the smallest edge. That does not mean markets are efficient, but rather that exploits are hardly usable by retail traders (have seen some diagrams from Anton Kreil for JPMogran (if I am not mistaken) and it appears they do not make money only 20 days in calendar year...)

dualstow wrote: ↑Sun May 03, 2020 9:53 am Berkshire sells airline stocks
https://onemileatatime.com/warren-buffe ... ne-stocks/

"When we sell something, very often it’s going to be our entire stake. We don’t trim positions. That’s just not the way we approach it any more than if we buy 100% of a business. We’re going to sell it down to 90% or 80%. If we like a business, we’re going to buy as much of it as we can and keep it as long as we can. And when we change our mind we don’t take half measures.”

What is one to make of this? Buffett is regaled as an investing guru, but he bailed out of his airline investments at the bottom losing billions. Here we are less than a year later and they are more than double where they were at that time. And as the pandemic winds down all signs point to a massive rebound in travel.
I watched this closely because I bought LUV, DAL and AAL all at the bottom and then I had a sleepless night when Buffett bailed, thinking he knew something the mortals didn't. I almost followed him out and thankful I didn't. I'm still shaking my head over it.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:04 pm I have a lot of research to do first, but the idea keeps nagging at me to buy an airline stock and hold it for a year or 2, or 5. Like Southwest.
Is that nutty? Or does it make sense.
I'd probably buy it 2 to 4 weeks from now.

Don't buy airline stocks. Ever.

Heh, you’re a bit late, Don. But, there’s a happy ending.

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 7:46 pm Heh, you’re a bit late, Don. But, there’s a happy ending.

I'm glad it ended well for you, dualstow.