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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:08 am
by Vil
Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:28 am
I am not understanding this day trading mentality with regards to PP assets. I mean, I understand this thread topic has "daytrading" in it, but seriously, how would you guys ever survive an asset hitting a low % band for rebalancing without freaking out?
Well, I love to see the gyroscope being oriented towards the top right corner of the chart, not pointing to my belly .. ;D

Joke apart, I have 95% in PP-ish portfolios now (1/3 USD and 2/3 EUR-hedged, both utilizing mid-term bonds). I am having 5% VP cash buffer to play around when using PP amounts as leverage (I know it sounds risky, but its not).

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:12 am
by mathjak107
dualstow wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:36 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:25 am
dualstow wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:00 am
I can’t remember, mj- have you ever bought TIPS?

I remember Craig and/or MediumTex saying they didn’t like the idea of buying inflation protection from the entity debasing the currency in the first place.
Once but at the time they lacked the lift on non tips
Your earlier response was “kryptonite” — meaning they’re the worst thing one can buy?
rising rates seem to be the kryptonite to the pp..... we only knew from a 40 year bull with some bumps ...we never really had a situation where rising rates may go on for an extended period of time and the low rates we saw may be gone forever in some of our lifetimes

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2021 12:50 pm
by buddtholomew
Yields keep rising....

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2021 12:57 pm
by mathjak107
Certainly feels like there is no top in sight yet .. nasdaq down 300 and TLT Still falls deeper in a hole

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:16 am
by mathjak107
Could it be , Tlt up ,gold up when stocks down ?...I am shocked. Lol.

Let’s see by the close

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:09 am
by buddtholomew
Seriously...
TLT matching SPY to the downside.
Thinking SDS (-2x SPY) is a better hedge than TLT

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:32 am
by mathjak107
That didn’t take long .

The bell rang and tlt ,gold and stocks are all down..you gotta love when three groups move down together ..

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:38 am
by dualstow
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:32 am
That didn’t take long .

The bell rang and tlt ,gold and stocks are all down..you gotta love when three groups move down together ..
I’m still purchasing so I would appreciate low prices.

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:41 am
by mathjak107
dualstow wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:38 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:32 am
That didn’t take long .

The bell rang and tlt ,gold and stocks are all down..you gotta love when three groups move down together ..
I’m still purchasing so I would appreciate low prices.
I am adding too so I can bring what fell back up to my min level but it is like peeing in the ocean ...I rather not add and stop the huge blood loss if I had a choice.

Wishing for lower price to add what amounts to very little while tanking the bulk of the dollars may not be the best to wish for

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:03 am
by Cortopassi
An indication something is out of whack in the system?

Image

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:18 am
by Cortopassi
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:32 am
That didn’t take long .

The bell rang and tlt ,gold and stocks are all down..you gotta love when three groups move down together ..
This has happened so many times in the past, and the reverse, it should be expected. They don't all, short term, move in opposition, which you know.

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:25 am
by mathjak107
Of course we all know that ..but the fact is many pp users turn to the pp to avoid big daily swings and what they believed would be much less volatile days then running high equity allocations and as users know that is anything but the case on many days when 3 assets move together ...

We have had days , hang on to your hat

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:37 am
by dualstow
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:25 am
..but the fact is many pp users turn to the pp to avoid big daily swings
...
❌ Daily is an unrealistic expectation unless one has 100% in short-term treasuries.

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:48 am
by mathjak107
Many investors don’t realize just how much even the most conservative portfolios can swing in a day .

They have heard over the years how the pp can be like watching paint dry because of the yin and yang of it ...I will bet not a lot of new users expect the daily swing they can see ....

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:55 am
by dualstow
Well, tough shit for them. They need to go back and read Craig’s book.

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:57 am
by Vil
If it goes a bit more like this, I tend to believe that we'll reach the drawdown of the darkest Covid days last year. But back then we had different ignition of the market plunge, than now .. I would say that back then it was slightly more rational than now ;D

PS. Holy sh*t, major EU brokers are all under water.. replying support requests take ages. Believe it or not, one even refused to populate the performance field as it's taking too much of their processing power. And all that due to 'increased market volatility'. Is that all designed to work in calm and sideways market I am wondering...

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:00 am
by dualstow
The four horsemen are very weary, Vil. They’re getting to us as quickly as they can. O0

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:00 am
by vnatale
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:48 am

Many investors don’t realize just how much even the most conservative portfolios can swing in a day .

They have heard over the years how the pp can be like watching paint dry because of the yin and yang of it ...I will bet not a lot of new users expect the daily swing they can see ....


I use Quicken for all my personal finances - income & expenses and all investment transactions. All my equity investments' prices get updated daily. Every so often I import them into an Excel worksheet and create a graph of my overall daily gains and losses and my cumulative year-to-date overall results. The picture is astounding of how much I've made or lost in a given day. And, in those same days how I'd have obsessed over not wanting to spend a relative few dollar and then deciding to not spend them. Which just pales in comparison to how much I have made or lost that day in my investments.

And, as you regularly point out...it's the same real money as if I did or did not spend it in the normal day-to-day way of spending or earning income through work.

What is the best source for getting the daily prices for each of the four components of the Permanent Portfolio? But let me refine my question.

1) My cash position will already be updated in Quicken
2) My equity position will already be updated in Quicken
3) My long term bonds will already be updated in Quicken
4) Buying gold via paper would already be updated in Quicken. But I'd have to manual enter the prices for physical.

What are your definitive sources for prices both for the past and for an ongoing daily basis for the four components of the Permanent Portfolio?

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:04 am
by Vil
dualstow wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:00 am
The four horsemen are very weary, Vil. They’re getting to us as quickly as they can. O0
I am here waiting. And no short sell bans, please, that's not a free market. Last half of the previous year plunge I was out of the game due to those bans.. should not be like this.

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:06 am
by Cortopassi
Daily/weekly/monthly, all emotional trading points. If someone, like mj, could have told me when I started investing in 1989 to "just close your eyes and keep plowing money into an all stock fund" that would have been the best advice anyone could have given me.

Don't trade options. Don't trade. Just keep on adding. Don't worry about drawdowns.

Would I have been able to stick it out? If the money magically went into a black box and I didn't need to watch its value over the course of my life -- probably.

Image

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:12 am
by Vil
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:06 am
"just close your eyes and keep plowing money into an all stock fund" that would have been the best advice anyone could have given me.
Yeah, Bernstein's "If you can" gives exactly that advice, if I am not mistaken... Worth read anyway.

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:15 am
by vnatale
Vil wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:12 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:06 am

"just close your eyes and keep plowing money into an all stock fund" that would have been the best advice anyone could have given me.


Yeah, Bernstein's "If you can" gives exactly that advice, if I am not mistaken... Worth read anyway.


I think I have read all that he's written. Some of it two or three times. Which of his writings did he say that? I am not remembering that. Maybe I was too focused on him saying that if you "won the game" then you should stop taking the risk.

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:45 am
by mathjak107
vnatale wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:00 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:48 am
Many investors don’t realize just how much even the most conservative portfolios can swing in a day .

They have heard over the years how the pp can be like watching paint dry because of the yin and yang of it ...I will bet not a lot of new users expect the daily swing they can see ....
I use Quicken for all my personal finances - income & expenses and all investment transactions. All my equity investments' prices get updated daily. Every so often I import them into an Excel worksheet and create a graph of my overall daily gains and losses and my cumulative year-to-date overall results. The picture is astounding of how much I've made or lost in a given day. And, in those same days how I'd have obsessed over not wanting to spend a relative few dollar and then deciding to not spend them. Which just pales in comparison to how much I have made or lost that day in my investments.

And, as you regularly point out...it's the same real money as if I did or did not spend it in the normal day-to-day way of spending or earning income through work.

What is the best source for getting the daily prices for each of the four components of the Permanent Portfolio? But let me refine my question.

1) My cash position will already be updated in Quicken
2) My equity position will already be updated in Quicken
3) My long term bonds will already be updated in Quicken
4) Buying gold via paper would already be updated in Quicken. But I'd have to manual enter the prices for physical.

What are your definitive sources for prices both for the past and for an ongoing daily basis for the four components of the Permanent Portfolio?
I have a watch list created in my fidelity account that tracks in real time my portfolio..full view in fidelity gives me a total net worth at any time including banks and credit cards .

However any mutual funds like fidelity contra or blue chip growth don’t up date until after markets close and more towards 6 pm

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:03 am
by Vil
vnatale wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:15 am
Which of his writings did he say that? I am not remembering that. Maybe I was too focused on him saying that if you "won the game" then you should stop taking the risk.
If You Can: How Millennials Can Get Rich Slowly

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:21 am
by mathjak107
The reality is how do we know we won the game .?

It sounds good but the reality is anything can happen to us tomorrow ...

Heck I got dental implant infection last year that cost me 15k out of the blue ...we need to replace cars , help our kids or grand kids and that thing called life .then there are long term care issues or needing domestic help ..

If they did not waive all the co pays and deductible for covid , with two of us hospitalized it would have cost us thousands since it spanned 2020 and 2021 starting new deductibles .

I do the best I can and I keep things in a volatility range that I can live with in retirement but no way would I ever say I won the game