mathjak's daytrading adventures

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mathjak107
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:04 pm

https://kahlerfinancial.com/financial-a ... -inflation

With long term bonds , every dollar they owe even at 2% inflation will be paid back with what amounts to just 400 dollars per thousand
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:06 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:04 pm
https://kahlerfinancial.com/financial-a ... -inflation

With long term bonds , every dollar they owe even at 2% inflation will be paid back with what amounts to just 400 dollars per thousand
That is a great piece.
https://www.city-journal.org/journalism-advocacy-over-reporting
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:20 pm

That is why the fed does not care to much about the interest ..the entire debt deflates with inflation

So that is why Tlt is scary ....the fed action is behind the increasing rates and inflation and as we all experienced at one point or another , don’t fight the fed..buying Tlt is fighting the feds policy , at least until some point it isn’t their policy ...who knows what kind of losses will be sustained that have to be recovered in that investment .

Those poor buyers of Tlt last august are in a crazy slump . It was I think about 175 ...heck if that was me I would be down an insane 4000 shares x 30 dollars ...that is a 120k hit to recover
Last edited by mathjak107 on Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:29 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:28 pm

From the article:

The Federal Reserve is back in the inflation business. The Fed, with the blessing of the U.S. Treasury and the Obama administration, recently announced they will again start inflating the money supply in hopes of staving off a sustained deflation. Why are they so fearful of deflation?

-----------
Notice it was written sometime during Obama's terms. We are 2 presidents past that now! Where's the inflation and rise in yields?

For example, another wrong call:

Image

And here is the continuation of that chart

Image
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:30 pm

I would saywe are seeing it since august.

In the mean time the 30 buck slide is because of the fed and their policy so we are seeing it in action
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pp4me » Fri Feb 19, 2021 3:55 pm

Couldn't help but notice but since your Covid experience you are now capitalizing the first word in every sentence.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:09 pm

Very Good observation.

In the hospital I was stuck using my iPad day in and and day out ...it has auto type and auto fill of punctuation...when we got home from the hospital I couldn’t sit at the desk top much so I only used the iPad .

I became so comfortable using it and laying on the couch or from a recliner that I never went back to using the desktop...

Only issue is the auto type puts in words sometimes that I don’t catch that are pretty funny .

Very observant
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:15 pm

One could say that while you were in the hospital you were confined to an iPadded room.

ONE *COULD* SAY THAT
One horse can carry 125 kg on its back, but it can drag 2500 kg on a cart. If it pulls a barge along a river, it can drag 30,000 kg, 30 tonnes, and it can drag 50 tonnes if the weight is on a barge in quiet water, i.e., on a canal.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:27 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:15 pm
One could say that while you were in the hospital you were confined to an iPadded room.

ONE *COULD* SAY THAT
Now that is funny
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:06 am

Per your post in the Rosenberg-LongBond thread about odds, do you have an ideal % for gold that you’re going to use for the time being? If I recall, you are of the opinion (and certainly not alone) that gold is no savior from inflation.
https://www.city-journal.org/journalism-advocacy-over-reporting
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:28 am

Have you considered just taking the loss and re-evaluating or are you still confident the PP is the path forward for you.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:33 am

I will roll the dice that at some point either markets stumble or the fed starts some yield control
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:34 am

dualstow wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:06 am
Per your post in the Rosenberg-LongBond thread about odds, do you have an ideal % for gold that you’re going to use for the time being? If I recall, you are of the opinion (and certainly not alone) that gold is no savior from inflation.
I am more confident in gold than bonds..I have 25%
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pp4me » Sun Feb 21, 2021 2:28 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:09 pm
Very Good observation.

In the hospital I was stuck using my iPad day in and and day out ...it has auto type and auto fill of punctuation...when we got home from the hospital I couldn’t sit at the desk top much so I only used the iPad .

I became so comfortable using it and laying on the couch or from a recliner that I never went back to using the desktop...

Only issue is the auto type puts in words sometimes that I don’t catch that are pretty funny .

Very observant
I was thinking it was a very strange side effect of your Covid treatment. I guess it was in a way.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:26 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:34 am
dualstow wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:06 am
Per your post in the Rosenberg-LongBond thread about odds, do you have an ideal % for gold that you’re going to use for the time being? If I recall, you are of the opinion (and certainly not alone) that gold is no savior from inflation.
I am more confident in gold than bonds..I have 25%
With 25% in gold and, per the Bond thread, 25% in long treasuries (17% of your pp+vp), your total is ironically more pp-ish than mine. Earlier, you said you were about 60% in cash. Does that mean you have very little left for stocks?
https://www.city-journal.org/journalism-advocacy-over-reporting
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:30 am

Still have over 1 million in cash after adding more Friday and bringing each component up to 600k .....but not all of it is for investing ....we keep two years spending money being retired outside of the pp cash as well as if prices come down we are entertaining buying a condo for cash in westchester.

Right now my investment is only the pp which is why it has been getting hit so hard dollar wise ....the daily on going compounding up or down has been pretty down since switching over compared to what I left to do the pp
Last edited by mathjak107 on Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:31 am

Makes sense, thanks..
https://www.city-journal.org/journalism-advocacy-over-reporting
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:32 am

TLT still tankin'.

Unbelievable.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Vil » Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:40 am

amdda01 wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:32 am
TLT still tankin'.

Unbelievable.
It is. Actually, I was thinking that PP is the perfect portfolio bleeding money at the moment. I will stick to my daily business and will stop checking my accounts. Will take an ostrich policy, at least for a while. Hear you in couple of months ;D
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:00 am

I can’t remember, mj- have you ever bought TIPS?

I remember Craig and/or MediumTex saying they didn’t like the idea of buying inflation protection from the entity debasing the currency in the first place.
https://www.city-journal.org/journalism-advocacy-over-reporting
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:01 am

Kryptonite
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:28 am

Vil wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:40 am
amdda01 wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:32 am
TLT still tankin'.

Unbelievable.
It is. Actually, I was thinking that PP is the perfect portfolio bleeding money at the moment. I will stick to my daily business and will stop checking my accounts. Will take an ostrich policy, at least for a while. Hear you in couple of months ;D
I am not understanding this day trading mentality with regards to PP assets. I mean, I understand this thread topic has "daytrading" in it, but seriously, how would you guys ever survive an asset hitting a low % band for rebalancing without freaking out?

Gold is up nicely. TLT is actually positive now. Nasdaq is tanking now. So what....????
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:48 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:28 am
Vil wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:40 am
amdda01 wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:32 am
TLT still tankin'.

Unbelievable.
It is. Actually, I was thinking that PP is the perfect portfolio bleeding money at the moment. I will stick to my daily business and will stop checking my accounts. Will take an ostrich policy, at least for a while. Hear you in couple of months ;D
I am not understanding this day trading mentality with regards to PP assets. I mean, I understand this thread topic has "daytrading" in it, but seriously, how would you guys ever survive an asset hitting a low % band for rebalancing without freaking out?

Gold is up nicely. TLT is actually positive now. Nasdaq is tanking now. So what....????
When something is in a downward ski slope slide ,I find it near impossible to trade ....perhaps pros can capitalize on very tiny moves but when the bias is so strongly downward it is hard ....right now it is just a buy and hold for some event to shift it positive again over all
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:25 am

dualstow wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:00 am
I can’t remember, mj- have you ever bought TIPS?

I remember Craig and/or MediumTex saying they didn’t like the idea of buying inflation protection from the entity debasing the currency in the first place.
Once but at the time they lacked the lift on non tips
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:36 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:25 am
dualstow wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:00 am
I can’t remember, mj- have you ever bought TIPS?

I remember Craig and/or MediumTex saying they didn’t like the idea of buying inflation protection from the entity debasing the currency in the first place.
Once but at the time they lacked the lift on non tips
Your earlier response was “kryptonite” — meaning they’re the worst thing one can buy?
https://www.city-journal.org/journalism-advocacy-over-reporting
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