mathjak's daytrading adventures

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mathjak107
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:41 pm

I won’t know until they update it over night . I can look in the morning..they are mutual funds so they have to update tonight.

I don’t really care what each day does in isolation ...my comparison is the cumulative ytd
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Feb 18, 2021 4:02 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:41 pm
I don’t really care what each day does in isolation ...my comparison is the cumulative ytd
You're funny mj. You extolled your aptitude (and I say that with respect) on how you made a lot of money multiple times trading in and out of GLD and TLT last year. And now you are getting burned, at least for a while.

Cry me a river... ;)
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 4:12 pm

Yep trading both were fun and profitable ..but when they went in to a slide you could ski down since the highs it was way to hard to trade them regularly so I barely traded them much as the slide worsened .

But since last year was a great year for us and brought in big gains I really hoped to hold on to those gains with the pp .

But so far cumulatively it has not panned out that way ...but at this point I am trapped so to speak as they are down to much and with the bull Long in the tooth I am hoping it does pan out.. so I will give it some time and let’s see if it perks up ...if not then I shafted myself by not taking my own advice which is I believed the rising rates would be kryptonite.

But the reality is rates rose faster than anyone ever thought they would
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:06 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:59 pm
To be down in a so called defensive portfolio close to 50k in 4 weeks or so is just what you wanted to avoid
4 weeks? Does that even count?
https://www.city-journal.org/journalism-advocacy-over-reporting
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 3:07 am

>:D Does 50k count ?

It sure does .

Does the time frame count ? No ,for the reasons I will explain .

..all that matters is the balance rolls forward and the cumulative effect continues from whatever you were in previously whether the same investment you were in or a new investment.

The fact is each day we keep money invested in play whether old money or new money ,it is as if we are first buying in that day ..

Which is why it is always nonsense when you hear people say they wouldn’t buy an asset class today yet they keep their own existing money invested in the same asset which is the same as buying in each day at the ring of the bell as a new investor .

Being down 50k from your balance with new money just buying in is the same down 50k as your old money that is staying invested sees whether 4 weeks or four years .

Our old balance gets invested each day so to speak or stays invested and all gains and losses are cumulative from that point regardless of what we were in prior , it is just a continuing work in progress.

Follow what I am saying ? In other words if the newsletter had me switch funds and the funds were coincidentally the make up of the pp , it is just a continuation of the last 33 years ....good or bad we continue on and judge whether the changes were good or bad choices , but it is all one continuation of your investing every day that bell rings and the effect each day has cumulatively on your balance .

Your balance each day is the whole story whether you care or not ...when it changes for better or worse , we then see the effect on it ...to say one did not spend enough time in that investment is really irrelevant..it is what it is until it isn’t , as it is just a continuation of decades of investing ,if you can follow what I am saying ..


Like we say when I was a commissioned sales engineer , you are only as good as your last sale ....how many years you are selling is irrelevant .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:15 am

It is the same illogical reasoning used when people talk about only on paper losses or your gains are not real until realized .

That is pure nonsense..one may not care what their balance is but that balance is as real as money in the bank ..we just choose to keep it in play over night each day .


Getting back to the above , just imagine you spent decades in an s&p 500 fund ....whether You stay in that fund in a downturn or sell the s&p 500 fund and ride a total market fund back up ,if you are down 200k You are down the same 200k regardless .

You wouldn’t say well you can’t judge because you just bought in to the total market fund ...of course not ...that is your balance until it’s not ...we only hope it changes for the better , regardless what we choose to ride back.

Balances can change for the better or worse over time , but all we can judge by is up to the current moment not what may or not be in months ,years or decades
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:49 am

Which is why it is always nonsense when you hear people say they wouldn’t buy an asset class today yet they keep their own existing money invested in the same asset which is the same as buying in each day at the ring of the bell as a new investor .
I get this. It’s a classic mathjak principle/mantra at this point.
It is the same illogical reasoning used when people talk about only on paper losses or your gains are not real until realized.
Totally agree. I have given up trying to convince others (in person), but I know it to be true: unrealized gains and losses count, too.
Your balance each day is the whole story whether you care or not
Yes and no. Since there is no asset that is guaranteed to go up every day or even hold its value every day, I keep that cash core, while keeping in mind that my Italian friend’s family lost big when the lira dropped by 10% overnight. It’s something, but if I thought it was the whole story I’d be setting myself up for disappointment, or i’d be 85% cash. I invest in things like stocks because the future is a big part of the story, too.

The period between 2000 to 2010 was totally demoralizing, with a net gain of zero for the S&P 500. In 2021, it all looks worthwhile in the rearview mirror. Which is why I can’t imagine talking about 50K in four weeks, whether that is a fraction of a % of the mathjak portfolio or 90% of a youngster’s portfolio.

In any case, I appreciate your transparency (to quote Buddtholemew). People can read this thread as a novella with the moral that daytrading works until it doesn’t. And yes, the permanent portfolio can go down, too.
https://www.city-journal.org/journalism-advocacy-over-reporting
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:01 am

My post here is not about day trading at all ..
I know, i said the thread, not that post.

{ Oh, shoot, I just edited your post instead of quoting it.
I will try to get it back.

I’m so, sorry, MJ. I hit the edit button instead of quote and once the edit screen opens, it looks just the same as if I hit the quote button. I used the back button on my browser, but it looks like i cannot recover it. I’ll be more careful
https://www.phpbb.com/community/viewtopic.php?t=2465301
}
-DS
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:05 am

I know good question ...it somehow vanished ..I will recompose it
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:09 am

Any way to repost , I just explained my point a lil different than the first time which vanished .

Long term investing does not mean one has to sit and die with exactly the same funds year after year . So the changing of components over time are a part of long term investing .


But no matter what we swap to it is one balance continuation daily ....we have no idea what the future holds for any asset or that it will even have its day in the sun in our lifetime ....

So when you are an investor already , swapping anything is merely a continuation of the the plan .


Whether I moved in to the pp two months ago or stayed in what I had is irrelevant.up to today that balance is what it is and the portfolio effect is what it is ...the fact it may change one day if stocks tank is irrelevant .

All we got is today’s balance at the moment we look...

If the balance at this point in time means nothing to one , then look again next year .

But if it means something or you care and track it then every days is another balance and just the cumulative effect of decades of investing
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:11 am

So much pain with TLT.

Brutal.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:22 am

amdda01 wrote:
Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:11 am
So much pain with TLT.

Brutal.
Or, opportunity.... Unless you really think rates are going to rise long term.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Vil » Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:32 am

amdda01 wrote:
Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:11 am
So much pain with TLT.
Yeah, brutal it is (Yoda style). I was wondering which of the 2 assets (TLT vs GLD) will decline more ... though TLT seems to be in a free fall recently. It had also dropped below the lower boundary of the well established descending channel, really ugly. On the other hand GLD is still hovering slightly above an important support level, so there still might be some chance rebounding higher...

Certainly stocks in classic HBPP does not appear too much of overperforming at this exact moment in order to cover losses of the rest.. And while averaging down is not for everyone (which is different from being invested and riding down the price from day one), cash is certainly also a valid position ;)
Last edited by Vil on Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:35 am

Yeah , I still think gold may surprise everyone and do very well ...we are fighting the fed with Tlt ,..the fed said they are in favor of higher bond rates as they want to keep a lid on inflation ....it is never a good idea to fight the fed as they say .

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN29C2ZH


“I am encouraged to see the rise in market indicators of inflation expectations. ... That is what we are trying to support,” Richmond Federal President Thomas Barkin said on Thursday in an interview with Reuters.

Barkin said he regarded a recent rise in interest rates on Treasury bonds as also part of a “reflation trade,” a sign that investors were factoring future hikes in prices into their decisions by demanding higher interest rates, rather than representing a worrisome tightening of financial conditions.

“The ingredients for higher inflation are in place,” St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in separate comments to reporters. “You have very powerful fiscal policy in place and perhaps more to come,”
Last edited by mathjak107 on Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:36 am

MJ,

U staying the course?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:37 am

At this point yeah , losses in Tlt and Gld mounted way to quick and very high so I am in it for the haul, not that so far I don’t regret making the move to the pp ,because I do so far ...

Fighting the fed is not a great idea because until some point and god knows when they decide to do some yield curve control , the losses to recover are getting worse and worse.

I may still average down ..at least the almost 2% interest is a consolation although seeing the next two years interest evaporate so far still sucks
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:36 pm

For how many years have we heard the Fed wants to normalize, or raise rates? Not buying it yet. I am likely going to bring my % back in line closer to 25%
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:41 pm

When did you last hear the fed was happy with investors bidding up bonds while they the fed were not raising the benchmark rates ? I can’t think of any off hand in my investing life time.

As far as I can see this is unique.

Anytime I remember had the fed raising rates and investors bidding rates lower creating an inverted yield curve
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:46 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:41 pm
When did you last hear the fed was happy with investors bidding up bonds while they the fed were not raising the benchmark rates ? I can’t think of any off hand in my investing life time.

As far as I can see this is unique
Exactly. I think it is BS. But that's my opinion. Always jawboning something. In this case I think they are jawboning to get some room for an eventual collapse of everything, along with bond yields.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:49 pm

Nah , they just raised their inflation bar and they don’t want to touch short term rates since inflation is not a problem..but they have no problem with investors bidding up the rates they want to buy treasuries and hence the entire bond market moves rates upward.

The fed is in favor of higher bond rates and that is the scary part for us holding Tlt.

Without the fed signaling if not intervening in to these rising rates , every day Tlt goes lower and lower..there has been no let up in months
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:53 pm

What about rates and the US debt?
I was under the impression a rise in rates would result in higher interest payments to pay our debt.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:54 pm

One or both of us is wrong. Regardless, I am ready to bring my % in gold and TLT back in line. Maybe I regret it, but I have regretted a lot in the past and I am trying to do this with as little emotion as possible.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:55 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:53 pm
What about rates and the US debt?
I was under the impression a rise in rates would result in higher interest payments to pay our debt.
I wasn't going to go into that, but yeas, the Fed really cannot have higher rates. It will be a self fulfilling crash if they do get them, and then it will all crash even sooner.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:57 pm

I have started to add more to gold and stocks and t- bills bringing them up to 600k in each ..Tlt sits at 570k and I have no desire to add another 30k yet ....I have been beaten up almost daily averaging down .

So for now I certainly have enough in Tlt , more than enough but I will wait a bit before throwing anymore more in to the hole in Tlt
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:57 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:55 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:53 pm
What about rates and the US debt?
I was under the impression a rise in rates would result in higher interest payments to pay our debt.
I wasn't going to go into that, but yeas, the Fed really cannot have higher rates. It will be a self fulfilling crash if they do get them, and then it will all crash even sooner.
Higher inflation on the other hand decreases the debt load ...wow my first mortgage was 30k in the 1970’s ..that was crushing back then ..today taxes are 15k ..that mortgage won’t even cover utilities..

So while interest may climb a bit the debt load is actually smaller inflation wise...inflation is great for reducing a debt load or making an increasing one seem smaller .

As gdp inflates the debt is a smaller percentage
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