Gyroscopic Investing

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:38 am

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:33 am I agree , which is why I have been averaging down all along and putting hundreds of thousands of dollars in it ....

I mean if equities were down 25% off their highs wouldn’t you take advantage ? We never catch the lows of anything .

Gold and tlt are pretty much in a bear market from the highs or darn close ... if not buying them now , when , when they are hot again and everyone wants them ?

EXACTLY. Do it when it is painful and seems stupid, right?

Heh. I do not have the nuts doing average down on mass amounts and long term investments. However, just to opposite on what trading books advice, I am frequently using it in short term trades, when I have the conviction ... When I am long, I do it after every broken support. But again that's on short term and amounts that I can afford to play with (30-50K USD max). Definitely I do not have the stamina (and amount of money ) to do it the way MJ is doing it...

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:38 am

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:33 am I agree , which is why I have been averaging down all along and putting hundreds of thousands of dollars in it ....

I mean if equities were down 25% off their highs wouldn’t you take advantage ? We never catch the lows of anything .

Gold and tlt are pretty much in a bear market from the highs or darn close ... if not buying them now , when , when they are hot again and everyone wants them ?

EXACTLY. Do it when it is painful and seems stupid, right?

I just hope it doesn’t turn out to be stupid. Lol

TLT 450 @144.33

Out at 145.33...TLT is like yellow squash to a kid with a sweet tooth. Even with SPY down 1%+, very little action in long-term treasuries. Couldn’t turn positive.

I am in to deep with it . I am in it for the longer haul now ....

Yes, I realize MJ and wish you all the best.
I am not ready to make that commitment at the moment.

Thanks .....so far the pp met it’s kryptonite.

So far Gld down 22,750 .00

and tlt down 25,900 ....

Cash instruments flat

My equity funds I have for many many years so while they are up they have been up pre permanent portfolio with heavy gains .


But if I was starting out losses with the pp would be nasty. The volatility it is seeing would be close to a portfolio with very high equity levels taking a hit in down markets ...just the thing you wanted to avoid by going to the pp.

To be down in a so called defensive portfolio close to 50k in 4 weeks or so is just what you wanted to avoid

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:59 pm Thanks .....so far the pp met it’s kryptonite.

So far Gld down 22,750 .00

and tlt down 25,900 ....

Cash instruments flat

My equity funds I have for many many years so while they are up they have been up pre permanent portfolio with heavy gains .


But if I was starting out losses with the pp would be nasty. The volatility it is seeing would be close to a portfolio with very high equity levels taking a hit .

To be down in a so called defensive portfolio close to 50k in 4 weeks or so is just what you wanted to avoid

I know I have a slight variant of the PP, but I was up a hair over 20% last year and this year, so far down 0.56%.

Kryptonite? A bit of hyperbole?

$-wise, maybe looks like a lot, but if your % drop is similar to mine for 2021, you are sitting on a damn big portfolio!

Well you said it yourself ,you are not using the pp then if it is altered

I read you loud and clear.
What you have articulated is the rationale I used to pair back IAU and TLT while increasing CASH.
When the crisis of the day fails to materialize one can expect a significant unwinding in so called “safety” assets.
I’m just not willing to ride gold and bonds lower while they search for a floor.

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:17 pm Well you said it yourself ,you are not using the pp then if it is altered

Ok, sure, but I have 30% in gold and silver combined and 25% in TLT, so from your loss perspective, not far off.

Don't forget, from 11 months to 2.5 months ago we were rah rahing the PP. Now you've kicked it to the curb! How big was your 50k loss at the end of last march, due to stocks, for example?



No doubt 5% silver in my portfolio has helped.

So far ytd we have

Plus about 5.50% on total market

Tlt down about 8.50%

Gld down about 7.50%

Cash zero


So over all down 3%-4% or so depending on days you bought


Gold and tlt really got hit hard

Last March was a tough month but for the year the growth model I ran was up 33.70 and my income model up 11.60.

Ytd had I stayed put the growth model up 7.23 and income model up 1.64 .
So ,so far you can see why I am not so sure this was a smart move ..but I am in to deep at this point .

I looked to the pp to preserve last years gains and so far I got whacked being down 50k

The distaste lies in the fact that a single purchase of all assets does not automatically result in a non-volatile portfolio on day 1.

Yep , coupled with the fact had I not made the change instead of down 50k I would be up , and building a cushion if there was a drop.

The models I used are up 7.23% in the growth model and 1.64 in the income model so we are talking up 50k

We’re 2 sides of the same coin.
Who profits short-term and longer term are unknown.

I’m also playing the waiting game looking for re-entry which is constant second guessing.

Well that is why I say I will let it run ...let’s what happens ..so far the change has not done what I hoped. I didn’t expect to see 50k evaporate in less than 4weeks in Gld and tlt

Did the PP outperform your growth model today?

I won’t know until they update it over night . I can look in the morning..they are mutual funds so they have to update tonight.

I don’t really care what each day does in isolation ...my comparison is the cumulative ytd

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:41 pm I don’t really care what each day does in isolation ...my comparison is the cumulative ytd

You're funny mj. You extolled your aptitude (and I say that with respect) on how you made a lot of money multiple times trading in and out of GLD and TLT last year. And now you are getting burned, at least for a while.

Cry me a river...

Yep trading both were fun and profitable ..but when they went in to a slide you could ski down since the highs it was way to hard to trade them regularly so I barely traded them much as the slide worsened .

But since last year was a great year for us and brought in big gains I really hoped to hold on to those gains with the pp .

But so far cumulatively it has not panned out that way ...but at this point I am trapped so to speak as they are down to much and with the bull Long in the tooth I am hoping it does pan out.. so I will give it some time and let’s see if it perks up ...if not then I shafted myself by not taking my own advice which is I believed the rising rates would be kryptonite.

But the reality is rates rose faster than anyone ever thought they would

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:59 pm To be down in a so called defensive portfolio close to 50k in 4 weeks or so is just what you wanted to avoid

4 weeks? Does that even count?

Does 50k count ?

It sure does .

Does the time frame count ? No ,for the reasons I will explain .

..all that matters is the balance rolls forward and the cumulative effect continues from whatever you were in previously whether the same investment you were in or a new investment.

The fact is each day we keep money invested in play whether old money or new money ,it is as if we are first buying in that day ..

Which is why it is always nonsense when you hear people say they wouldn’t buy an asset class today yet they keep their own existing money invested in the same asset which is the same as buying in each day at the ring of the bell as a new investor .

Being down 50k from your balance with new money just buying in is the same down 50k as your old money that is staying invested sees whether 4 weeks or four years .

Our old balance gets invested each day so to speak or stays invested and all gains and losses are cumulative from that point regardless of what we were in prior , it is just a continuing work in progress.

Follow what I am saying ? In other words if the newsletter had me switch funds and the funds were coincidentally the make up of the pp , it is just a continuation of the last 33 years ....good or bad we continue on and judge whether the changes were good or bad choices , but it is all one continuation of your investing every day that bell rings and the effect each day has cumulatively on your balance .

Your balance each day is the whole story whether you care or not ...when it changes for better or worse , we then see the effect on it ...to say one did not spend enough time in that investment is really irrelevant..it is what it is until it isn’t , as it is just a continuation of decades of investing ,if you can follow what I am saying ..


Like we say when I was a commissioned sales engineer , you are only as good as your last sale ....how many years you are selling is irrelevant .

It is the same illogical reasoning used when people talk about only on paper losses or your gains are not real until realized .

That is pure nonsense..one may not care what their balance is but that balance is as real as money in the bank ..we just choose to keep it in play over night each day .


Getting back to the above , just imagine you spent decades in an s&p 500 fund ....whether You stay in that fund in a downturn or sell the s&p 500 fund and ride a total market fund back up ,if you are down 200k You are down the same 200k regardless .

You wouldn’t say well you can’t judge because you just bought in to the total market fund ...of course not ...that is your balance until it’s not ...we only hope it changes for the better , regardless what we choose to ride back.

Balances can change for the better or worse over time , but all we can judge by is up to the current moment not what may or not be in months ,years or decades

Which is why it is always nonsense when you hear people say they wouldn’t buy an asset class today yet they keep their own existing money invested in the same asset which is the same as buying in each day at the ring of the bell as a new investor .

I get this. It’s a classic mathjak principle/mantra at this point.

It is the same illogical reasoning used when people talk about only on paper losses or your gains are not real until realized.

Totally agree. I have given up trying to convince others (in person), but I know it to be true: unrealized gains and losses count, too.

Your balance each day is the whole story whether you care or not

Yes and no. Since there is no asset that is guaranteed to go up every day or even hold its value every day, I keep that cash core, while keeping in mind that my Italian friend’s family lost big when the lira dropped by 10% overnight. It’s something, but if I thought it was the whole story I’d be setting myself up for disappointment, or i’d be 85% cash. I invest in things like stocks because the future is a big part of the story, too.

The period between 2000 to 2010 was totally demoralizing, with a net gain of zero for the S&P 500. In 2021, it all looks worthwhile in the rearview mirror. Which is why I can’t imagine talking about 50K in four weeks, whether that is a fraction of a % of the mathjak portfolio or 90% of a youngster’s portfolio.

In any case, I appreciate your transparency (to quote Buddtholemew). People can read this thread as a novella with the moral that daytrading works until it doesn’t. And yes, the permanent portfolio can go down, too.

My post here is not about day trading at all ..

I know, i said the thread, not that post.

{ Oh, shoot, I just edited your post instead of quoting it.
I will try to get it back.

I’m so, sorry, MJ. I hit the edit button instead of quote and once the edit screen opens, it looks just the same as if I hit the quote button. I used the back button on my browser, but it looks like i cannot recover it. I’ll be more careful
https://www.phpbb.com/community/viewtopic.php?t=2465301
}
-DS