mathjak's daytrading adventures

[mathjak107]

You are sooooooooo right lol.

Should have thrown it all in Bitcoin when it was 4K ....I wouldn’t even need to invest today

[dualstow]

I do enjoy trading but my core funds usually stay for years if not decades unless the newsletter swaps some out ..

That's the way to do it, in my opinion.

So I always have some money for trading .

But with us hitting record highs in net worth and the bull long in the tooth I thought I would protect those gains after a great last year by using the pp ....

With you so far.

But as luck had it rates went up and became toxic to major components....

Seems like something you can ride out, though. Do you need to keep buying falling assets so often?

[mathjak107]

I am sitting on a lot of cash so I would like to get quite a bit in ...I figure at almost 2% interest on Tlt that does make it more palatable to wait for things to cycle hopefully rather than zero on the cash .

So each day I level out the assets equally ...at this point the cash stays at cash . So it is just the three I add to ..lately though Gld and tlt have been getting most of the added money

[mathjak107]

With so much negativity and a daily slide in Tlt almost a given where is the game stopper crowd acting on Tlt ? Maybe we all need to go to Reddit and do a little up talking

[buddtholomew]

I can’t help but think TLT will be the beneficiary as soon as the market turns south. Thinking about taking a shot today.

[mathjak107]

I agree , which is why I have been averaging down all along and putting hundreds of thousands of dollars in it ....

I mean if equities were down 25% off their highs wouldn’t you take advantage ? We never catch the lows of anything .

Gold and tlt are pretty much in a bear market from the highs or darn close ... if not buying them now , when , when they are hot again and everyone wants them ?

[Cortopassi]

I agree , which is why I have been averaging down all along and putting hundreds of thousands of dollars in it ....

I mean if equities were down 25% off their highs wouldn’t you take advantage ? We never catch the lows of anything .

Gold and tlt are pretty much in a bear market from the highs or darn close ... if not buying them now , when , when they are hot again and everyone wants them ?

EXACTLY. Do it when it is painful and seems stupid, right?

[buddtholomew]

All good points MJ.
One caveat...the worse things get the better it is for stocks as more and more $ is pumped into the system. Today’s unemployment numbers would have kick started a flight to safety but now it has almost assured more stimulus is on the way. Negative for bonds.

[Vil]

I agree , which is why I have been averaging down all along and putting hundreds of thousands of dollars in it ....

I mean if equities were down 25% off their highs wouldn’t you take advantage ? We never catch the lows of anything .

Gold and tlt are pretty much in a bear market from the highs or darn close ... if not buying them now , when , when they are hot again and everyone wants them ?

EXACTLY. Do it when it is painful and seems stupid, right?

Heh. I do not have the nuts doing average down on mass amounts and long term investments. However, just to opposite on what trading books advice, I am frequently using it in short term trades, when I have the conviction ... When I am long, I do it after every broken support. But again that's on short term and amounts that I can afford to play with (30-50K USD max). Definitely I do not have the stamina (and amount of money ) to do it the way MJ is doing it...

[mathjak107]

I agree , which is why I have been averaging down all along and putting hundreds of thousands of dollars in it ....

I mean if equities were down 25% off their highs wouldn’t you take advantage ? We never catch the lows of anything .

Gold and tlt are pretty much in a bear market from the highs or darn close ... if not buying them now , when , when they are hot again and everyone wants them ?

EXACTLY. Do it when it is painful and seems stupid, right?

I just hope it doesn’t turn out to be stupid. Lol

[buddtholomew]

TLT 450 @144.33

[buddtholomew]

Out at 145.33...TLT is like yellow squash to a kid with a sweet tooth. Even with SPY down 1%+, very little action in long-term treasuries. Couldn’t turn positive.

[mathjak107]

I am in to deep with it . I am in it for the longer haul now ....

[buddtholomew]

Yes, I realize MJ and wish you all the best.
I am not ready to make that commitment at the moment.

[mathjak107]

Thanks .....so far the pp met it’s kryptonite.

So far Gld down 22,750 .00

and tlt down 25,900 ....

Cash instruments flat

My equity funds I have for many many years so while they are up they have been up pre permanent portfolio with heavy gains .


But if I was starting out losses with the pp would be nasty. The volatility it is seeing would be close to a portfolio with very high equity levels taking a hit in down markets ...just the thing you wanted to avoid by going to the pp.

To be down in a so called defensive portfolio close to 50k in 4 weeks or so is just what you wanted to avoid

[Cortopassi]

Thanks .....so far the pp met it’s kryptonite.

So far Gld down 22,750 .00

and tlt down 25,900 ....

Cash instruments flat

My equity funds I have for many many years so while they are up they have been up pre permanent portfolio with heavy gains .


But if I was starting out losses with the pp would be nasty. The volatility it is seeing would be close to a portfolio with very high equity levels taking a hit .

To be down in a so called defensive portfolio close to 50k in 4 weeks or so is just what you wanted to avoid

I know I have a slight variant of the PP, but I was up a hair over 20% last year and this year, so far down 0.56%.

Kryptonite? A bit of hyperbole?

$-wise, maybe looks like a lot, but if your % drop is similar to mine for 2021, you are sitting on a damn big portfolio!

[mathjak107]

Well you said it yourself ,you are not using the pp then if it is altered

[buddtholomew]

I read you loud and clear.
What you have articulated is the rationale I used to pair back IAU and TLT while increasing CASH.
When the crisis of the day fails to materialize one can expect a significant unwinding in so called “safety” assets.
I’m just not willing to ride gold and bonds lower while they search for a floor.

[Cortopassi]

Well you said it yourself ,you are not using the pp then if it is altered

Ok, sure, but I have 30% in gold and silver combined and 25% in TLT, so from your loss perspective, not far off.

Don't forget, from 11 months to 2.5 months ago we were rah rahing the PP. Now you've kicked it to the curb! How big was your 50k loss at the end of last march, due to stocks, for example?



No doubt 5% silver in my portfolio has helped.

[mathjak107]

So far ytd we have

Plus about 5.50% on total market

Tlt down about 8.50%

Gld down about 7.50%

Cash zero


So over all down 3%-4% or so depending on days you bought


Gold and tlt really got hit hard

Last March was a tough month but for the year the growth model I ran was up 33.70 and my income model up 11.60.

Ytd had I stayed put the growth model up 7.23 and income model up 1.64 .
So ,so far you can see why I am not so sure this was a smart move ..but I am in to deep at this point .

I looked to the pp to preserve last years gains and so far I got whacked being down 50k

[buddtholomew]

The distaste lies in the fact that a single purchase of all assets does not automatically result in a non-volatile portfolio on day 1.

[mathjak107]

Yep , coupled with the fact had I not made the change instead of down 50k I would be up , and building a cushion if there was a drop.

The models I used are up 7.23% in the growth model and 1.64 in the income model so we are talking up 50k

[buddtholomew]

We’re 2 sides of the same coin.
Who profits short-term and longer term are unknown.

I’m also playing the waiting game looking for re-entry which is constant second guessing.

[mathjak107]

Well that is why I say I will let it run ...let’s what happens ..so far the change has not done what I hoped. I didn’t expect to see 50k evaporate in less than 4weeks in Gld and tlt

[buddtholomew]

Did the PP outperform your growth model today?