mathjak's daytrading adventures

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mathjak107
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Feb 17, 2021 2:21 pm

You are sooooooooo right lol.

Should have thrown it all in Bitcoin when it was 4K ....I wouldn’t even need to invest today
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Wed Feb 17, 2021 2:38 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:12 pm
I do enjoy trading but my core funds usually stay for years if not decades unless the newsletter swaps some out ..

That's the way to do it, in my opinion.

So I always have some money for trading .

But with us hitting record highs in net worth and the bull long in the tooth I thought I would protect those gains after a great last year by using the pp ....

With you so far.

But as luck had it rates went up and became toxic to major components....

Seems like something you can ride out, though. Do you need to keep buying falling assets so often?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:05 pm

I am sitting on a lot of cash so I would like to get quite a bit in ...I figure at almost 2% interest on Tlt that does make it more palatable to wait for things to cycle hopefully rather than zero on the cash .

So each day I level out the assets equally ...at this point the cash stays at cash . So it is just the three I add to ..lately though Gld and tlt have been getting most of the added money
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:29 am

With so much negativity and a daily slide in Tlt almost a given where is the game stopper crowd acting on Tlt ? Maybe we all need to go to Reddit and do a little up talking
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:10 am

I can’t help but think TLT will be the beneficiary as soon as the market turns south. Thinking about taking a shot today.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:33 am

I agree , which is why I have been averaging down all along and putting hundreds of thousands of dollars in it ....

I mean if equities were down 25% off their highs wouldn’t you take advantage ? We never catch the lows of anything .

Gold and tlt are pretty much in a bear market from the highs or darn close ... if not buying them now , when , when they are hot again and everyone wants them ?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:38 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:33 am
I agree , which is why I have been averaging down all along and putting hundreds of thousands of dollars in it ....

I mean if equities were down 25% off their highs wouldn’t you take advantage ? We never catch the lows of anything .

Gold and tlt are pretty much in a bear market from the highs or darn close ... if not buying them now , when , when they are hot again and everyone wants them ?
EXACTLY. Do it when it is painful and seems stupid, right?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:39 am

All good points MJ.
One caveat...the worse things get the better it is for stocks as more and more $ is pumped into the system. Today’s unemployment numbers would have kick started a flight to safety but now it has almost assured more stimulus is on the way. Negative for bonds.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Vil » Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:53 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:38 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:33 am
I agree , which is why I have been averaging down all along and putting hundreds of thousands of dollars in it ....

I mean if equities were down 25% off their highs wouldn’t you take advantage ? We never catch the lows of anything .

Gold and tlt are pretty much in a bear market from the highs or darn close ... if not buying them now , when , when they are hot again and everyone wants them ?
EXACTLY. Do it when it is painful and seems stupid, right?
Heh. I do not have the nuts doing average down on mass amounts and long term investments. However, just to opposite on what trading books advice, I am frequently using it in short term trades, when I have the conviction ... When I am long, I do it after every broken support. But again that's on short term and amounts that I can afford to play with (30-50K USD max). Definitely I do not have the stamina (and amount of money ;D ) to do it the way MJ is doing it...
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:58 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:38 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:33 am
I agree , which is why I have been averaging down all along and putting hundreds of thousands of dollars in it ....

I mean if equities were down 25% off their highs wouldn’t you take advantage ? We never catch the lows of anything .

Gold and tlt are pretty much in a bear market from the highs or darn close ... if not buying them now , when , when they are hot again and everyone wants them ?
EXACTLY. Do it when it is painful and seems stupid, right?
I just hope it doesn’t turn out to be stupid. Lol
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:17 am

TLT 450 @144.33
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:35 pm

Out at 145.33...TLT is like yellow squash to a kid with a sweet tooth. Even with SPY down 1%+, very little action in long-term treasuries. Couldn’t turn positive.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:30 pm

I am in to deep with it . I am in it for the longer haul now ....
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:32 pm

Yes, I realize MJ and wish you all the best.
I am not ready to make that commitment at the moment.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:59 pm

Thanks .....so far the pp met it’s kryptonite.

So far Gld down 22,750 .00

and tlt down 25,900 ....

Cash instruments flat

My equity funds I have for many many years so while they are up they have been up pre permanent portfolio with heavy gains .


But if I was starting out losses with the pp would be nasty. The volatility it is seeing would be close to a portfolio with very high equity levels taking a hit in down markets ...just the thing you wanted to avoid by going to the pp.

To be down in a so called defensive portfolio close to 50k in 4 weeks or so is just what you wanted to avoid
Last edited by mathjak107 on Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:15 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:59 pm
Thanks .....so far the pp met it’s kryptonite.

So far Gld down 22,750 .00

and tlt down 25,900 ....

Cash instruments flat

My equity funds I have for many many years so while they are up they have been up pre permanent portfolio with heavy gains .


But if I was starting out losses with the pp would be nasty. The volatility it is seeing would be close to a portfolio with very high equity levels taking a hit .

To be down in a so called defensive portfolio close to 50k in 4 weeks or so is just what you wanted to avoid
I know I have a slight variant of the PP, but I was up a hair over 20% last year and this year, so far down 0.56%.

Kryptonite? A bit of hyperbole? :)

$-wise, maybe looks like a lot, but if your % drop is similar to mine for 2021, you are sitting on a damn big portfolio!
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:17 pm

Well you said it yourself ,you are not using the pp then if it is altered
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:19 pm

I read you loud and clear.
What you have articulated is the rationale I used to pair back IAU and TLT while increasing CASH.
When the crisis of the day fails to materialize one can expect a significant unwinding in so called “safety” assets.
I’m just not willing to ride gold and bonds lower while they search for a floor.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:20 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:17 pm
Well you said it yourself ,you are not using the pp then if it is altered
Ok, sure, but I have 30% in gold and silver combined and 25% in TLT, so from your loss perspective, not far off.

Don't forget, from 11 months to 2.5 months ago we were rah rahing the PP. Now you've kicked it to the curb! How big was your 50k loss at the end of last march, due to stocks, for example?

Image

No doubt 5% silver in my portfolio has helped.

Image
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:27 pm

So far ytd we have

Plus about 5.50% on total market

Tlt down about 8.50%

Gld down about 7.50%

Cash zero


So over all down 3%-4% or so depending on days you bought


Gold and tlt really got hit hard

Last March was a tough month but for the year the growth model I ran was up 33.70 and my income model up 11.60.

Ytd had I stayed put the growth model up 7.23 and income model up 1.64 .
So ,so far you can see why I am not so sure this was a smart move ..but I am in to deep at this point .

I looked to the pp to preserve last years gains and so far I got whacked being down 50k
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:34 pm

The distaste lies in the fact that a single purchase of all assets does not automatically result in a non-volatile portfolio on day 1.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:35 pm

Yep , coupled with the fact had I not made the change instead of down 50k I would be up , and building a cushion if there was a drop.

The models I used are up 7.23% in the growth model and 1.64 in the income model so we are talking up 50k
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:36 pm

We’re 2 sides of the same coin.
Who profits short-term and longer term are unknown.

I’m also playing the waiting game looking for re-entry which is constant second guessing.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:38 pm

Well that is why I say I will let it run ...let’s what happens ..so far the change has not done what I hoped. I didn’t expect to see 50k evaporate in less than 4weeks in Gld and tlt
Last edited by mathjak107 on Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:39 pm

Did the PP outperform your growth model today?
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