mathjak's daytrading adventures

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mathjak107
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:55 pm

I year ago we had no problem why am I comparing … this is the first real test and crisis now in 12 years.....all that matters is how things react when they are called upon and the effect going forward ON YOUR MONEY...

the rubber will meet the road on the return a year from now when we see not only how it reacts to a real crisis and not noise and the effect on the portfolio when this crisis backs off
Last edited by mathjak107 on Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:58 pm

Because if GLD or TLT was doing bad, they would be down on the 1 year time frame like stocks are... not a hair away from all time highs in bonds and cycle highs in gold.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:00 pm

that is not true one bit …. stocks did very well right up until last month and the crisis is now . lets see how it does once this crisis backs off …. my feeling is it is going to have violent losses and that still remains to be seen , so don't tell about prior years .

we need to see how this plays out for things ....my feeling is by next year the pp may be bleeding red badly . I hope I am wrong but time will tell
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:02 pm

Exactly my point. Where are stocks now? Back in 2017 for large caps. Back in 2014 for small caps. Where are bonds and gold? A stones throw away from highs. Have some patience man! It's working exactly as intended.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:04 pm

yes , I am not arguing that . but based on action in gold and tlt with 5 to 8% moves because of machine trading , I am saying they will get it very hard once the risk off ends …. I think tlt and gld will see startling drops .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:06 pm

Sure, one or both will pull back. But people would have rebalanced by then. Also, stocks will be going back up.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Xan » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:06 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:04 pm
I think tlt and gld will see startling drops .
You may be right. Tell you what, I'll keep both around only 25% of my portfolio.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm

Let me tell you , I am only 25% equities , actually less with these drops and the dollars down are just incomprehensible once you accumulate sizable portfolios .....they get worse when multiple asset classes get hit together ......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:54 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm
......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha
I am down one entry-level Lamborghini, plus a bit more when the dust settles tomorrow.
loot "goods taken from an enemy, etc.," 1839, Anglo-Indian, from Hindi lut, from Sanskrit loptram, lotram "booty, stolen property,"fm. PIE root *reup- "to snatch"
curfew - early 14c., curfeu, "evening signal, ringing of a bell at a fixed hour" as a signal to extinguish fires and lights, ... from Old French cuevrefeu, literally "cover fire"
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Xan » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:54 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm
Let me tell you , I am only 25% equities , actually less with these drops and the dollars down are just incomprehensible once you accumulate sizable portfolios .....they get worse when multiple asset classes get hit together ......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha
Yeah, I can't imagine what it's like when your portfolio swings dwarf your annual income. Hope to get there one day! But wow, that's a whole other level of investing cajones.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:39 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:04 pm
yes , I am not arguing that . but based on action in gold and tlt with 5 to 8% moves because of machine trading , I am saying they will get it very hard once the risk off ends …. I think tlt and gld will see startling drops .
The haywire counter conventional movements in bonds stocks and gold in this crisis really makes me question the strength of our entire financial system. The pervasiveness of negative interest rates and the coordinated international central bank involvement in providing endless liquidity to the markets are the fundamental fears that drive gold's price don't you think? Not the current coronavirus fears? I see this as a problem that will dissipate anytime soon.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Kbg » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:40 pm

Xan wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:54 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm
Let me tell you , I am only 25% equities , actually less with these drops and the dollars down are just incomprehensible once you accumulate sizable portfolios .....they get worse when multiple asset classes get hit together ......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha
Yeah, I can't imagine what it's like when your portfolio swings dwarf your annual income. Hope to get there one day! But wow, that's a whole other level of investing cajones.
I'm not at the point where swings are equal to my annual salary but nearing there...I really try to just focus on percentages. If one looks at the $$$s it is serious bad behavior bait.
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