mathjak's daytrading adventures

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mathjak107
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:55 pm

I year ago we had no problem why am I comparing … this is the first real test and crisis now in 12 years.....all that matters is how things react when they are called upon and the effect going forward ON YOUR MONEY...

the rubber will meet the road on the return a year from now when we see not only how it reacts to a real crisis and not noise and the effect on the portfolio when this crisis backs off
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:58 pm

Because if GLD or TLT was doing bad, they would be down on the 1 year time frame like stocks are... not a hair away from all time highs in bonds and cycle highs in gold.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:00 pm

that is not true one bit …. stocks did very well right up until last month and the crisis is now . lets see how it does once this crisis backs off …. my feeling is it is going to have violent losses and that still remains to be seen , so don't tell about prior years .

we need to see how this plays out for things ....my feeling is by next year the pp may be bleeding red badly . I hope I am wrong but time will tell
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:02 pm

Exactly my point. Where are stocks now? Back in 2017 for large caps. Back in 2014 for small caps. Where are bonds and gold? A stones throw away from highs. Have some patience man! It's working exactly as intended.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:04 pm

yes , I am not arguing that . but based on action in gold and tlt with 5 to 8% moves because of machine trading , I am saying they will get it very hard once the risk off ends …. I think tlt and gld will see startling drops .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:06 pm

Sure, one or both will pull back. But people would have rebalanced by then. Also, stocks will be going back up.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Xan » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:06 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:04 pm
I think tlt and gld will see startling drops .
You may be right. Tell you what, I'll keep both around only 25% of my portfolio.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm

Let me tell you , I am only 25% equities , actually less with these drops and the dollars down are just incomprehensible once you accumulate sizable portfolios .....they get worse when multiple asset classes get hit together ......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:54 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm
......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha
I am down one entry-level Lamborghini, plus a bit more when the dust settles tomorrow.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Xan » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:54 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm
Let me tell you , I am only 25% equities , actually less with these drops and the dollars down are just incomprehensible once you accumulate sizable portfolios .....they get worse when multiple asset classes get hit together ......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha
Yeah, I can't imagine what it's like when your portfolio swings dwarf your annual income. Hope to get there one day! But wow, that's a whole other level of investing cajones.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:39 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:04 pm
yes , I am not arguing that . but based on action in gold and tlt with 5 to 8% moves because of machine trading , I am saying they will get it very hard once the risk off ends …. I think tlt and gld will see startling drops .
The haywire counter conventional movements in bonds stocks and gold in this crisis really makes me question the strength of our entire financial system. The pervasiveness of negative interest rates and the coordinated international central bank involvement in providing endless liquidity to the markets are the fundamental fears that drive gold's price don't you think? Not the current coronavirus fears? I see this as a problem that will dissipate anytime soon.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Kbg » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:40 pm

Xan wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:54 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm
Let me tell you , I am only 25% equities , actually less with these drops and the dollars down are just incomprehensible once you accumulate sizable portfolios .....they get worse when multiple asset classes get hit together ......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha
Yeah, I can't imagine what it's like when your portfolio swings dwarf your annual income. Hope to get there one day! But wow, that's a whole other level of investing cajones.
I'm not at the point where swings are equal to my annual salary but nearing there...I really try to just focus on percentages. If one looks at the $$$s it is serious bad behavior bait.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:05 am

doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:39 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:04 pm
yes , I am not arguing that . but based on action in gold and tlt with 5 to 8% moves because of machine trading , I am saying they will get it very hard once the risk off ends …. I think tlt and gld will see startling drops .
The haywire counter conventional movements in bonds stocks and gold in this crisis really makes me question the strength of our entire financial system. The pervasiveness of negative interest rates and the coordinated international central bank involvement in providing endless liquidity to the markets are the fundamental fears that drive gold's price don't you think? Not the current coronavirus fears? I see this as a problem that will dissipate anytime soon.
liquidity has been a problem ... what sellers want and what buyers want to pay are very different ... buyers will not accept such low rates and are causing rates t spike in order to see a sale happen .

total bond funds like bnd have been seeing huge swings .. tlt has been swinging 10 bucks . even fidelity ultra conservative bond fund which is the old style money market like we used to have pre the regulation changes has swung 5 cents .

high yield has been swinging like stocks ..... the bond markets are weird .. i can see once the fear index dropping after this phenomenon with supposedly safe bond funds there is going to be blood in the streets as bond investors drive rates higher to be compensated ....
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:09 am

Kbg wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:40 pm
Xan wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:54 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm
Let me tell you , I am only 25% equities , actually less with these drops and the dollars down are just incomprehensible once you accumulate sizable portfolios .....they get worse when multiple asset classes get hit together ......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha
Yeah, I can't imagine what it's like when your portfolio swings dwarf your annual income. Hope to get there one day! But wow, that's a whole other level of investing cajones.
my conservative 25% equity model , is down about 275k from the high ... just 6.28% ytd and 8% from the high

our brains tend to think in terms of dollars not percentages ....
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:17 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:05 am
high yield has been swinging like stocks ..... the bond markets are weird .. i can see once the fear index dropping after this phenomenon with supposedly safe bond funds there is going to be blood in the streets as bond investors drive rates higher to be compensated .
Which I guess could hurt gold in the short term....but the long term debt monetization and negative real interest rate trend is still intact. Im just curious why you think gold takes a big dive? You don't think we are going to be revisiting the 1000 price support level again once the coronavirus story dissipates, do you?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:28 am

I think there will be a mad dash back to equities once the fear factor subsides
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by vnatale » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:31 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:28 am
I think there will be a mad dash back to equities once the fear factor subsides
May you be a prophet!

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:01 am

I do agree with mathjak that there will be a "mad dash to equities once the fear subsides". I do think that bonds are likely to have a pretty big pullback (and as mathjak is also noting, as interest rates get lower the volatility increases on all bonds and like a double edged sword that does cut both directions). However, while I think a short term pullback in gold would likely happen... gold is still in a relatively new uptrend. It was so oversold for so long that I don't see a big pullback in gold. I see at most a typical bull market pullback and then resumption of the bull trend. In a worst case scenario it goes back and retests that 1350-1400 breakout level. If it does, this would be a massive buying opportunity, imo. Gold tends to trend in bull and bear market cycles that last about a decade each. We literally are less than 1 year into this gold bull market. Why would it end so soon this time? Especially with negative real yields and tons of liquidity being provided to the system? Gold has much higher to go over the next 10 years, and any pullback would be a short term healthy bull market pullback at most, as such it would be a dip to be welcomed and bought not feared. Bonds are a trickier matter. I have no clue what will happen with bonds from here. We are in uncharted territory here. As such, any bet would be a guess at best. I see no reason to do anything other that just follow the rebalancing rules and call it a day.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:04 am

i certainly would trade the moves in gold short term ... gold and tlt gains seem to be like an echo and are only there until they are not ....they are very situation dependent and in my opinion more about timing the markets then time in the markets
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:12 am

Time in the markets seems to work pretty good for both to me... even better if someone were rebalancing along the way to generate alpha from the volatility that you are so afraid of: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100

Now, if someone has the skill to actually trade these things short term, with a bit of luck they obviously they can generate substantial alpha. However, most people do not have these skills or luck (and do not forget I have some technical analysis skills myself) and there is nothing wrong with someone following a rules based rebalancing system. I think they will do just fine on the whole through this crisis and going forward.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:37 am

I am not comfortable with holding Tlt and Gld as opposed to trading them treating them as I would my variable portfolio.... but then again I am never one to be happy being average either .....

But for those who are comfortable holding them in this new world of insane volatility then what works works .......
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:41 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:37 am
But for those who are comfortable holding them in this new world of insane volatility then what works works .......
Or as I like to call them, everyone else on the forum. O0
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:22 pm

Just put limit orders in for both Tlt and sgol ....they are now far enough below where I sold to take a shot on a pop
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:30 pm

Why SGOL if you're doing a short term trade? Not liquid enough. GLD is the ETF to use if you're just playing a short term swing. The spread bites you more than the ER in short term holds.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:03 pm

I started trading sgol because I don’t want to support hsbc bank who is the custodian for Gld .

I have no issues getting my trades s executed...my limit orders were hit about 10 minutes before the close .....both for sgol and Tlt .....I did not think it would hit but as trump spoke markets went up and Tlt and Gld down
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