Gyroscopic Investing

Posted: **Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:13 am**

Today gold and stocks are in the barrel .....

The volatility even in the pp is insane

Posted: **Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:38 pm**

phew , TLT HAD amazing volatility today as it soared 10 bucks a share only to fall negative as of 3.33pm .. gold down 67.00 an an ounce , stocks down 2000 points … even cash is just about zero losing ground to inflation and taxes . ….

not an easy sleep even with the pp I would say … most pp users use it just to avoid this kind of stuff …

welcome to the modern investment world where little plays out like the script used to .

Posted: **Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:41 pm**

True, but even the pp doesn’t claim to protect you every day.

P.S. bitcoin sucks

Posted: **Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:50 pm**

this is why i don't trust portfolios based on what was ... driving and looking in the rear view mirror is a hell of a way to navigate the future ...

machine controlled selling in assets has created all new relationships to the world as it was .

gold and or TLT SHOULD BE SOARING by any stretch of the imagination when markets fall 2000 points . ...what could prompt TLT to soar 10 bucks a share and then lose it ? machines doing the trading is the answer ... something harry never planned on .

You have machines winding up leverage and then on the drops unwinding leverage ...all following the same parameters for the most part ...it does not matter what economic is showing is happening ...when you need to unwind leverage you need to unwind leverage no matter what the asset is invested in . It is just a matter of what the software selects as the victims .

if this is what happens on the days of highest fear what will happen when fear unwinds in assets like gold and treasuries ...to scary for my taste based on the action these now have under a machine dominated world . losses could be mind blowing in my opinion when fear is the reason .

Posted: **Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:54 pm**

You're way over exaggerating. Get out of the narrow 1 day view. Go look at the 1 year returns of TLT, GLD and SPY back to back. There you will see the PP doing exactly what it should do. Nobody ever claimed that every down day would be padded in the PP. In 2008 gold and bonds had periods of being sold as well at different points. But on the whole, they protected the investors over the course of the full crisis, just like they are doing with this one.

Posted: **Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:55 pm**

I year ago we had no problem why am I comparing … this is the first real test and crisis now in 12 years.....all that matters is how things react when they are called upon and the effect going forward ON YOUR MONEY...

the rubber will meet the road on the return a year from now when we see not only how it reacts to a real crisis and not noise and the effect on the portfolio when this crisis backs off

Posted: **Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:58 pm**

Because if GLD or TLT was doing bad, they would be down on the 1 year time frame like stocks are... not a hair away from all time highs in bonds and cycle highs in gold.

Posted: **Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:00 pm**

that is not true one bit …. stocks did very well right up until last month and the crisis is now . lets see how it does once this crisis backs off …. my feeling is it is going to have violent losses and that still remains to be seen , so don't tell about prior years .

we need to see how this plays out for things ....my feeling is by next year the pp may be bleeding red badly . I hope I am wrong but time will tell

Posted: **Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:02 pm**

Exactly my point. Where are stocks now? Back in 2017 for large caps. Back in 2014 for small caps. Where are bonds and gold? A stones throw away from highs. Have some patience man! It's working exactly as intended.

Posted: **Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:04 pm**

yes , I am not arguing that . but based on action in gold and tlt with 5 to 8% moves because of machine trading , I am saying they will get it very hard once the risk off ends …. I think tlt and gld will see startling drops .

Posted: **Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:06 pm**

Sure, one or both will pull back. But people would have rebalanced by then. Also, stocks will be going back up.

Posted: **Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:06 pm**

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:04 pmI think tlt and gld will see startling drops .

You may be right. Tell you what, I'll keep both around only 25% of my portfolio.

Posted: **Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm**

Let me tell you , I am only 25% equities , actually less with these drops and the dollars down are just incomprehensible once you accumulate sizable portfolios .....they get worse when multiple asset classes get hit together ......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha

Posted: **Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:54 pm**

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm ......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha

I am down one entry-level Lamborghini, plus a bit more when the dust settles tomorrow.

Posted: **Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:54 pm**

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm Let me tell you , I am only 25% equities , actually less with these drops and the dollars down are just incomprehensible once you accumulate sizable portfolios .....they get worse when multiple asset classes get hit together ......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha

Yeah, I can't imagine what it's like when your portfolio swings dwarf your annual income. Hope to get there one day! But wow, that's a whole other level of investing cajones.

Posted: **Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:39 pm**

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:04 pm yes , I am not arguing that . but based on action in gold and tlt with 5 to 8% moves because of machine trading , I am saying they will get it very hard once the risk off ends …. I think tlt and gld will see startling drops .

The haywire counter conventional movements in bonds stocks and gold in this crisis really makes me question the strength of our entire financial system. The pervasiveness of negative interest rates and the coordinated international central bank involvement in providing endless liquidity to the markets are the fundamental fears that drive gold's price don't you think? Not the current coronavirus fears? I see this as a problem that will dissipate anytime soon.

Posted: **Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:40 pm**

Xan wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:54 pm
mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm Let me tell you , I am only 25% equities , actually less with these drops and the dollars down are just incomprehensible once you accumulate sizable portfolios .....they get worse when multiple asset classes get hit together ......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha
Yeah, I can't imagine what it's like when your portfolio swings dwarf your annual income. Hope to get there one day! But wow, that's a whole other level of investing cajones.

I'm not at the point where swings are equal to my annual salary but nearing there...I really try to just focus on percentages. If one looks at the $$$s it is serious bad behavior bait.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:05 am**

doodle wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:39 pm
mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:04 pm yes , I am not arguing that . but based on action in gold and tlt with 5 to 8% moves because of machine trading , I am saying they will get it very hard once the risk off ends …. I think tlt and gld will see startling drops .
The haywire counter conventional movements in bonds stocks and gold in this crisis really makes me question the strength of our entire financial system. The pervasiveness of negative interest rates and the coordinated international central bank involvement in providing endless liquidity to the markets are the fundamental fears that drive gold's price don't you think? Not the current coronavirus fears? I see this as a problem that will dissipate anytime soon.

liquidity has been a problem ... what sellers want and what buyers want to pay are very different ... buyers will not accept such low rates and are causing rates t spike in order to see a sale happen .

total bond funds like bnd have been seeing huge swings .. tlt has been swinging 10 bucks . even fidelity ultra conservative bond fund which is the old style money market like we used to have pre the regulation changes has swung 5 cents .

high yield has been swinging like stocks ..... the bond markets are weird .. i can see once the fear index dropping after this phenomenon with supposedly safe bond funds there is going to be blood in the streets as bond investors drive rates higher to be compensated ....

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:09 am**

Kbg wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:40 pm
Xan wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:54 pm
mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm Let me tell you , I am only 25% equities , actually less with these drops and the dollars down are just incomprehensible once you accumulate sizable portfolios .....they get worse when multiple asset classes get hit together ......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha
Yeah, I can't imagine what it's like when your portfolio swings dwarf your annual income. Hope to get there one day! But wow, that's a whole other level of investing cajones.
my conservative 25% equity model , is down about 275k from the high ... just 6.28% ytd and 8% from the high

our brains tend to think in terms of dollars not percentages ....

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:17 am**

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:05 am high yield has been swinging like stocks ..... the bond markets are weird .. i can see once the fear index dropping after this phenomenon with supposedly safe bond funds there is going to be blood in the streets as bond investors drive rates higher to be compensated .

Which I guess could hurt gold in the short term....but the long term debt monetization and negative real interest rate trend is still intact. Im just curious why you think gold takes a big dive? You don't think we are going to be revisiting the 1000 price support level again once the coronavirus story dissipates, do you?

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:28 am**

I think there will be a mad dash back to equities once the fear factor subsides

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:31 am**

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:28 am I think there will be a mad dash back to equities once the fear factor subsides

May you be a prophet!

Vinny

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:01 am**

I do agree with mathjak that there will be a "mad dash to equities once the fear subsides". I do think that bonds are likely to have a pretty big pullback (and as mathjak is also noting, as interest rates get lower the volatility increases on all bonds and like a double edged sword that does cut both directions). However, while I think a short term pullback in gold would likely happen... gold is still in a relatively new uptrend. It was so oversold for so long that I don't see a big pullback in gold. I see at most a typical bull market pullback and then resumption of the bull trend. In a worst case scenario it goes back and retests that 1350-1400 breakout level. If it does, this would be a massive buying opportunity, imo. Gold tends to trend in bull and bear market cycles that last about a decade each. We literally are less than 1 year into this gold bull market. Why would it end so soon this time? Especially with negative real yields and tons of liquidity being provided to the system? Gold has much higher to go over the next 10 years, and any pullback would be a short term healthy bull market pullback at most, as such it would be a dip to be welcomed and bought not feared. Bonds are a trickier matter. I have no clue what will happen with bonds from here. We are in uncharted territory here. As such, any bet would be a guess at best. I see no reason to do anything other that just follow the rebalancing rules and call it a day.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:04 am**

i certainly would trade the moves in gold short term ... gold and tlt gains seem to be like an echo and are only there until they are not ....they are very situation dependent and in my opinion more about timing the markets then time in the markets

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:12 am**

Time in the markets seems to work pretty good for both to me... even better if someone were rebalancing along the way to generate alpha from the volatility that you are so afraid of: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100

Now, if someone has the skill to actually trade these things short term, with a bit of luck they obviously they can generate substantial alpha. However, most people do not have these skills or luck (and do not forget I have some technical analysis skills myself) and there is nothing wrong with someone following a rules based rebalancing system. I think they will do just fine on the whole through this crisis and going forward.

Gyroscopic Investing

mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures