mathjak's daytrading adventures

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mathjak107
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:58 pm

My total portfolio was down a mere .79% today .....

When the growth and income model falls about 10% below my income model I will shift some money back in ...overall I have been about 25% stocks since nov or so .....I had no intention of letting the over 362k in gains from last year slip away .....we were due for a correction
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:11 am

MJ,

You are way too quiet.

Whatcha thinkin' now?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:35 pm

i have not done anything much .... i am waiting for the spread to go wider between the fidelity insight income model i have been in for the last few mnths to get bigger so i can go back to my growth and income model .

another 4% or so and i can buy just what i had back a few months ago and pocket a few hundred thousand dollars difference
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:16 am

As much as I try to avoid timing myself, I have to concede, mathjak- you reduced your stock allocation at just the right time.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:17 pm

I know , I was lucky , but after 11 years and last years big run up it was time to take the carrot off the stick ... I just started buying into the insight growth model which is 100% equity ..I bought 50k the day we fell 2000 points and I have an order in for tonight for 50k ...

If markets fall another 5% I wall add 100k and another 100k if we fall another 5% after that .....my max in that model will be 500k if we fall 40% .....that will give me a nice growth and income mix coupled with the bulk in the insight income model ....

If we don’t fall as far , we’ll no problem , I can live forever on the model as is
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:39 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:17 pm
I was lucky
That's the thing, right? Some people are lucky. A lot. Some are unlucky. A lot.

I have quite a few relatives and friends freaking out right now. While I get to watch the smooth action of the pp. This is what this portfolio was made for. Doesn't work every day, no sir, like today, gold hasn't helped, but over the course of the past year, I mean the blue curve looks like a 200 day moving average of stocks.

You don't have to follow up with the long term stocks are always better posting. ;) The pp is letting me sleep. Better long term for my health.

Image
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:50 pm

I am very comfortable in the 25% equity model I have used for about a year with the gold and Tlt trading .... i no longer have Tlt and gold at this stage .

to risky and volatile at this stage , the pp makes me nervous at these levels ..

i believe The pp is going to unwind violently once things resolve ....the drops in gold and Tlt may be off the hook from what we are seeing now ...edit. holy cow Tlt down now 3.84 on top of yesterday’s bad plunge ,, just happened to look ....and nothing changed yet for the better for stocks .

it seems the spread between bid and ask on the longer term bonds became huge .. buyers don't want longer term bonds at these rates the last few days and are driving rates up despite a falling stock market .... days like this with stocks , bonds and gold all down are quite painful
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:13 am

Today gold and stocks are in the barrel .....


The volatility even in the pp is insane
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:38 pm

phew , TLT HAD amazing volatility today as it soared 10 bucks a share only to fall negative as of 3.33pm .. gold down 67.00 an an ounce , stocks down 2000 points … even cash is just about zero losing ground to inflation and taxes . ….

not an easy sleep even with the pp I would say … most pp users use it just to avoid this kind of stuff …

welcome to the modern investment world where little plays out like the script used to .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:41 pm

True, but even the pp doesn’t claim to protect you every day.

P.S. bitcoin sucks
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:50 pm

this is why i don't trust portfolios based on what was ... driving and looking in the rear view mirror is a hell of a way to navigate the future ...

machine controlled selling in assets has created all new relationships to the world as it was .

gold and or TLT SHOULD BE SOARING by any stretch of the imagination when markets fall 2000 points . ...what could prompt TLT to soar 10 bucks a share and then lose it ? machines doing the trading is the answer ... something harry never planned on .

You have machines winding up leverage and then on the drops unwinding leverage ...all following the same parameters for the most part ...it does not matter what economic is showing is happening ...when you need to unwind leverage you need to unwind leverage no matter what the asset is invested in . It is just a matter of what the software selects as the victims .

if this is what happens on the days of highest fear what will happen when fear unwinds in assets like gold and treasuries ...to scary for my taste based on the action these now have under a machine dominated world . losses could be mind blowing in my opinion when fear is the reason .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:54 pm

You're way over exaggerating. Get out of the narrow 1 day view. Go look at the 1 year returns of TLT, GLD and SPY back to back. There you will see the PP doing exactly what it should do. Nobody ever claimed that every down day would be padded in the PP. In 2008 gold and bonds had periods of being sold as well at different points. But on the whole, they protected the investors over the course of the full crisis, just like they are doing with this one.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:55 pm

I year ago we had no problem why am I comparing … this is the first real test and crisis now in 12 years.....all that matters is how things react when they are called upon and the effect going forward ON YOUR MONEY...

the rubber will meet the road on the return a year from now when we see not only how it reacts to a real crisis and not noise and the effect on the portfolio when this crisis backs off
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:58 pm

Because if GLD or TLT was doing bad, they would be down on the 1 year time frame like stocks are... not a hair away from all time highs in bonds and cycle highs in gold.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:00 pm

that is not true one bit …. stocks did very well right up until last month and the crisis is now . lets see how it does once this crisis backs off …. my feeling is it is going to have violent losses and that still remains to be seen , so don't tell about prior years .

we need to see how this plays out for things ....my feeling is by next year the pp may be bleeding red badly . I hope I am wrong but time will tell
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:02 pm

Exactly my point. Where are stocks now? Back in 2017 for large caps. Back in 2014 for small caps. Where are bonds and gold? A stones throw away from highs. Have some patience man! It's working exactly as intended.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:04 pm

yes , I am not arguing that . but based on action in gold and tlt with 5 to 8% moves because of machine trading , I am saying they will get it very hard once the risk off ends …. I think tlt and gld will see startling drops .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:06 pm

Sure, one or both will pull back. But people would have rebalanced by then. Also, stocks will be going back up.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Xan » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:06 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:04 pm
I think tlt and gld will see startling drops .
You may be right. Tell you what, I'll keep both around only 25% of my portfolio.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm

Let me tell you , I am only 25% equities , actually less with these drops and the dollars down are just incomprehensible once you accumulate sizable portfolios .....they get worse when multiple asset classes get hit together ......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:54 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm
......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha
I am down one entry-level Lamborghini, plus a bit more when the dust settles tomorrow.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Xan » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:54 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm
Let me tell you , I am only 25% equities , actually less with these drops and the dollars down are just incomprehensible once you accumulate sizable portfolios .....they get worse when multiple asset classes get hit together ......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha
Yeah, I can't imagine what it's like when your portfolio swings dwarf your annual income. Hope to get there one day! But wow, that's a whole other level of investing cajones.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:39 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:04 pm
yes , I am not arguing that . but based on action in gold and tlt with 5 to 8% moves because of machine trading , I am saying they will get it very hard once the risk off ends …. I think tlt and gld will see startling drops .
The haywire counter conventional movements in bonds stocks and gold in this crisis really makes me question the strength of our entire financial system. The pervasiveness of negative interest rates and the coordinated international central bank involvement in providing endless liquidity to the markets are the fundamental fears that drive gold's price don't you think? Not the current coronavirus fears? I see this as a problem that will dissipate anytime soon.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Kbg » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:40 pm

Xan wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:54 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm
Let me tell you , I am only 25% equities , actually less with these drops and the dollars down are just incomprehensible once you accumulate sizable portfolios .....they get worse when multiple asset classes get hit together ......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha
Yeah, I can't imagine what it's like when your portfolio swings dwarf your annual income. Hope to get there one day! But wow, that's a whole other level of investing cajones.
I'm not at the point where swings are equal to my annual salary but nearing there...I really try to just focus on percentages. If one looks at the $$$s it is serious bad behavior bait.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:05 am

doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:39 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:04 pm
yes , I am not arguing that . but based on action in gold and tlt with 5 to 8% moves because of machine trading , I am saying they will get it very hard once the risk off ends …. I think tlt and gld will see startling drops .
The haywire counter conventional movements in bonds stocks and gold in this crisis really makes me question the strength of our entire financial system. The pervasiveness of negative interest rates and the coordinated international central bank involvement in providing endless liquidity to the markets are the fundamental fears that drive gold's price don't you think? Not the current coronavirus fears? I see this as a problem that will dissipate anytime soon.
liquidity has been a problem ... what sellers want and what buyers want to pay are very different ... buyers will not accept such low rates and are causing rates t spike in order to see a sale happen .

total bond funds like bnd have been seeing huge swings .. tlt has been swinging 10 bucks . even fidelity ultra conservative bond fund which is the old style money market like we used to have pre the regulation changes has swung 5 cents .

high yield has been swinging like stocks ..... the bond markets are weird .. i can see once the fear index dropping after this phenomenon with supposedly safe bond funds there is going to be blood in the streets as bond investors drive rates higher to be compensated ....
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