mathjak's daytrading adventures

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Ad Orientem
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:18 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:43 am
i haven't traded silver since 1987 when i got burned . but i have thought about slv below 17 dollars a share . just never done it ...there is always something else like gbtc or uso that seems to distract me away . right now i am in uso and gld
I bought around 70 lbs of silver a couple years ago, not all at once, on a speculative basis. Everything I picked up was in the $14 oz range (under $15). And I still have it in a safe deposit box that I hate even looking at because its so damned heavy. If I ever do anything like that again, I'm definitely going to use SLV. That said, I'm ahead on that speculation... so yeah. I thought, and still believe, that silver is cheap relative to gold. But the silver/gold price ratio has remained quite high. Hmmm...
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:45 am

i held off on silver . i am trying to run with what is out of favor totally right now
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:40 am

Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:18 pm
I bought around 70 lbs of silver a couple years ago, not all at once, on a speculative basis.
For weightlifters like Smithers and Kriegsspiel, I’m imagining kettlebells or other weights made of gold and silver. Like what thief is going to run off with those.
https://www.city-journal.org/journalism-advocacy-over-reporting
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:28 pm

I'm thinking more like a Húsafell Stone of silver.

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One horse can carry 125 kg on its back, but it can drag 2500 kg on a cart. If it pulls a barge along a river, it can drag 30,000 kg, 30 tonnes, and it can drag 50 tonnes if the weight is on a barge in quiet water, i.e., on a canal.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:51 pm

Perfect!
https://www.city-journal.org/journalism-advocacy-over-reporting
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Feb 03, 2020 8:53 am

tips and china fund both sold at profits .. only eem is left
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:14 pm

eem now sold too
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:35 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 8:53 am
tips and china fund both sold at profits .. only eem is left
MJ,

Looks like MCHI took off right after you sold.

Were ya just looking for the quick grab?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:48 am

Only quick grabs ..this stuff is way to volatile ......I am eying Tesla today after the lunge
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:59 pm

MJ,

where u at?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:55 pm

here i am ....

only trades i have are i added more money to my regular portfolio and small positions in TLT and gld again .. i got stopped out of oil .. of course it rally's for the last 2 days . but that is how it goes .


i did get a pretty nice offer from citi bank which i took advantage of the other day .

we got 700 bucks for opening an account , plus my wife opened an account so she got a few hundred dollars too , plus i got another 100 dollars as a referral fee for referring my wife .. we got about 1100 bucks or so ....

my son did it too so he got another 100 dollar referral fee for him too .

just been busy drumming .... the work load is hours a day now i have ..... good thing i am retired lol
'
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:26 pm

MJ,

Why u so quiet today?

Everything spinnin' outta control.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:58 pm

My total portfolio was down a mere .79% today .....

When the growth and income model falls about 10% below my income model I will shift some money back in ...overall I have been about 25% stocks since nov or so .....I had no intention of letting the over 362k in gains from last year slip away .....we were due for a correction
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:11 am

MJ,

You are way too quiet.

Whatcha thinkin' now?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:35 pm

i have not done anything much .... i am waiting for the spread to go wider between the fidelity insight income model i have been in for the last few mnths to get bigger so i can go back to my growth and income model .

another 4% or so and i can buy just what i had back a few months ago and pocket a few hundred thousand dollars difference
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:16 am

As much as I try to avoid timing myself, I have to concede, mathjak- you reduced your stock allocation at just the right time.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:17 pm

I know , I was lucky , but after 11 years and last years big run up it was time to take the carrot off the stick ... I just started buying into the insight growth model which is 100% equity ..I bought 50k the day we fell 2000 points and I have an order in for tonight for 50k ...

If markets fall another 5% I wall add 100k and another 100k if we fall another 5% after that .....my max in that model will be 500k if we fall 40% .....that will give me a nice growth and income mix coupled with the bulk in the insight income model ....

If we don’t fall as far , we’ll no problem , I can live forever on the model as is
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:39 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:17 pm
I was lucky
That's the thing, right? Some people are lucky. A lot. Some are unlucky. A lot.

I have quite a few relatives and friends freaking out right now. While I get to watch the smooth action of the pp. This is what this portfolio was made for. Doesn't work every day, no sir, like today, gold hasn't helped, but over the course of the past year, I mean the blue curve looks like a 200 day moving average of stocks.

You don't have to follow up with the long term stocks are always better posting. ;) The pp is letting me sleep. Better long term for my health.

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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:50 pm

I am very comfortable in the 25% equity model I have used for about a year with the gold and Tlt trading .... i no longer have Tlt and gold at this stage .

to risky and volatile at this stage , the pp makes me nervous at these levels ..

i believe The pp is going to unwind violently once things resolve ....the drops in gold and Tlt may be off the hook from what we are seeing now ...edit. holy cow Tlt down now 3.84 on top of yesterday’s bad plunge ,, just happened to look ....and nothing changed yet for the better for stocks .

it seems the spread between bid and ask on the longer term bonds became huge .. buyers don't want longer term bonds at these rates the last few days and are driving rates up despite a falling stock market .... days like this with stocks , bonds and gold all down are quite painful
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:13 am

Today gold and stocks are in the barrel .....


The volatility even in the pp is insane
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:38 pm

phew , TLT HAD amazing volatility today as it soared 10 bucks a share only to fall negative as of 3.33pm .. gold down 67.00 an an ounce , stocks down 2000 points … even cash is just about zero losing ground to inflation and taxes . ….

not an easy sleep even with the pp I would say … most pp users use it just to avoid this kind of stuff …

welcome to the modern investment world where little plays out like the script used to .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:41 pm

True, but even the pp doesn’t claim to protect you every day.

P.S. bitcoin sucks
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:50 pm

this is why i don't trust portfolios based on what was ... driving and looking in the rear view mirror is a hell of a way to navigate the future ...

machine controlled selling in assets has created all new relationships to the world as it was .

gold and or TLT SHOULD BE SOARING by any stretch of the imagination when markets fall 2000 points . ...what could prompt TLT to soar 10 bucks a share and then lose it ? machines doing the trading is the answer ... something harry never planned on .

You have machines winding up leverage and then on the drops unwinding leverage ...all following the same parameters for the most part ...it does not matter what economic is showing is happening ...when you need to unwind leverage you need to unwind leverage no matter what the asset is invested in . It is just a matter of what the software selects as the victims .

if this is what happens on the days of highest fear what will happen when fear unwinds in assets like gold and treasuries ...to scary for my taste based on the action these now have under a machine dominated world . losses could be mind blowing in my opinion when fear is the reason .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:54 pm

You're way over exaggerating. Get out of the narrow 1 day view. Go look at the 1 year returns of TLT, GLD and SPY back to back. There you will see the PP doing exactly what it should do. Nobody ever claimed that every down day would be padded in the PP. In 2008 gold and bonds had periods of being sold as well at different points. But on the whole, they protected the investors over the course of the full crisis, just like they are doing with this one.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:55 pm

I year ago we had no problem why am I comparing … this is the first real test and crisis now in 12 years.....all that matters is how things react when they are called upon and the effect going forward ON YOUR MONEY...

the rubber will meet the road on the return a year from now when we see not only how it reacts to a real crisis and not noise and the effect on the portfolio when this crisis backs off
Last edited by mathjak107 on Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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