mathjak's daytrading adventures

A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

Post Reply
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3320
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:33 am

if you cherry pick the lost decade for stocks all you needed was bonds to do better and nothing else.

in fact 30/70 with no gold beat a 60/40 the last 20 years with 2 back to back recessions and a 40 year bull market in bonds in the mix .

.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3320
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:46 am

looking at my total investment period which started in 1987 , the fidelity insight growth model which i used from day one right to retirement took a hypothetical 100k and ended december with 3.3 million ... the insight fidelity sector model started a year later in 1988 and closed 2019 at 4.915 million .

that includes those 20 crappy years

so the only time frame that counts is the ones that applies to us with whatever our models are . ... these charts mean little since we all buy at different times , rebalance at different times , add money differently , sell at different times as well as have different tax structures and most important DIFFERENT PORTFOLIOS which have different results when working as a team vs in isolation
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3320
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:54 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:09 pm
Got bitcoin ...gbtc 7.95
Phew , I thought I did well this morning with gbtc up almost 5% ..it now shows over 7% today ....damn I wish I had all my gold money in that baby today

Bought ung today natural gas ......
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3320
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:44 am

interesting that bitcoin was going for the equal of 24k in dollars in iran yesterday ...

basically it was iran yesterday that triggered the run up in bitcoin and gbtc . gbtc acully closed up over 7% .. but at least i captured 5% of it overnight . it was a bigger benefactor yesterday than gold and tlt together x 2 were
HappyMan
Senior Member
Senior Member
Posts: 132
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:01 am

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by HappyMan » Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:22 pm

Is it time to buy oil?
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3320
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:27 am

not yet i think ... i am waiting for the air to come out of all this stuff .. TLT is back to negative since i sold . gold has been evaporating its flash in the pan for those who did not lock in any of its recent spike .


that is the problem with gold and oil .. it seems to be like a tease ... if you blink and do nothing the gains tend to evaporate ... looks like futures are down 13 bucks for gold this morning on top of down 18 yesterday .

in the mean time i have been trading ung and gbtc. gbtc was hot for a bit too
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 11578
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:38 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:27 am
that is the problem with gold and oil .. it seems to be like a tease ... if you blink and do nothing the gains tend to evaporate ...
Depends on what you want it for. It would be nice if gold had a generally upward trend like the S&P500. Even though it does not, I feel comfortable holding coins and not messing with them, excepting rebalancing bands.

If you’re young like Smithers, you want assets to be cheap.

if you’re older like Mathjak (and my Dad), it’s easier to get bored and more tempting to do quick trades.
I’m in my late 40s so I’m not quite sure what I want, but I should probably trade very infrequently.
https://www.city-journal.org/journalism-advocacy-over-reporting
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3320
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:47 am

HappyMan wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:22 pm
Is it time to buy oil?
oil still tumbling again today

edit-------------- limit order hit at 12.33
HappyMan
Senior Member
Senior Member
Posts: 132
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:01 am

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by HappyMan » Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:58 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:47 am

edit-------------- limit order hit at 12.33
Nice! What is your secret?
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3320
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:48 am

my butt ....

have a limit order in for gld too ... it is coming back to earth daily now ...

that flash was what we got for waiting 7 years for a high and it lasted not even a day . oil too fell something like 10% in days .

which is why it is always timing the markets it seems with commodities and gold , not time in the markets like equities
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3320
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:23 pm

added to uso (oil ) and gld today
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3320
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:53 am

looks like the gold rally is fading off in to the sunset … I will add the last of the money likely today in to gld .
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 11578
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:28 am

silver’s down 1%. Do you ever trade that?
https://www.city-journal.org/journalism-advocacy-over-reporting
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3320
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:43 am

i haven't traded silver since 1987 when i got burned . but i have thought about slv below 17 dollars a share . just never done it ...there is always something else like gbtc or uso that seems to distract me away . right now i am in uso and gld
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3320
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:25 am

so just an update …..

bought back 170k in gld , 21k in uso (oil) 10k in bitcoin GBTC ….. all the rest is in the 25% equity fidelity insight income model …. right now I am holding off on tlt unless it moves down quite a bit …

I much prefer to use the short term bond and intermediate term bond funds in the fidelity model with some gold and oil coverage ….

i think we can see rates climb a bit so i don't want so much interest rate risk as gold and long term treasuries really are a bet on low rates with that kind of heft .
HappyMan
Senior Member
Senior Member
Posts: 132
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:01 am

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by HappyMan » Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:32 am

When did you sell oil?
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3320
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:35 am

i just bought uso ........ i have not owned it in a while
HappyMan
Senior Member
Senior Member
Posts: 132
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:01 am

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by HappyMan » Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:53 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:23 pm
added to uso (oil ) and gld today
Did you add to your limit order at 12.33 from 1/9 ?
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3320
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:57 am

Yes added to it yesterday
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3320
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:36 pm

Bitcoin. Gbtc sold off today. Nice run up
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3320
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:20 pm

ought ung again , it got hammered today
amdda01
Full Member
Full Member
Posts: 82
Joined: Tue Oct 26, 2010 6:20 pm

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:26 am

MJ,

USO down 3% today - u makin a move?
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3320
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:43 am

already in ... waiting for the next event in the mideast .... i have ung natural gas which i am up on but not enough yet ... i don't mind sitting with commodities .. even gold i am still holding
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3320
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:16 pm

Put together a little portfolio of unloved assets ...I tried to pick the assets being cast a side .

Oil which I have uso and added more today ..

I split the stock budget with half in eem emerging market and half in mchi China .....and TIPS since I think inflation expectations are under estimated and tips are frowned upon right now ......I will add up to 50% more if it falls enough and then let it ride .

I will hold the whole thing to no more than 100k
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:18 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:43 am
i haven't traded silver since 1987 when i got burned . but i have thought about slv below 17 dollars a share . just never done it ...there is always something else like gbtc or uso that seems to distract me away . right now i am in uso and gld
I bought around 70 lbs of silver a couple years ago, not all at once, on a speculative basis. Everything I picked up was in the $14 oz range (under $15). And I still have it in a safe deposit box that I hate even looking at because its so damned heavy. If I ever do anything like that again, I'm definitely going to use SLV. That said, I'm ahead on that speculation... so yeah. I thought, and still believe, that silver is cheap relative to gold. But the silver/gold price ratio has remained quite high. Hmmm...
Post Reply